March Madness 2012: A Guide to the Mid-Majors

The recent trend of parity that has swept through college basketball is well-documented. From George Mason's (then) unprecedented run to the Final Four in 2006, to Butler's back-to-back National Championship appearances, Mid-Major schools have been finding success that was thought to be impossible a decade ago.

And there's good reason to believe the trend won't be bucked this time around. A quick survey of the RPI rankings reveals that 20 of the top 50-ranked teams in the country come from outside of the power-6 conferences. To put it more simply, 40% of the best teams in the country this year are mid-majors.

While the talking heads on ESPN are sure to predict success for traditional power programs after the brackets are revealed on Selection Sunday, the truth is it would be more surprising to see an Elite Eight devoid of Cinderellas than one overpopulated by them. Here's a quick primer of this year's top mid-majors to keep an eye on when filling out your bracket.

UNLV (RPI: T-12)

Record: 22-6

Conference: Mountain West

Pomeroy Rankings: 29

Key Victories: North Carolina (N); New Mexico (H); Nevada (H); Cal (H); San Diego St. (H); Colorado St. (H); Illinois (A)

Bad Losses: TCU (A); Wyoming (A)

The Rebels can play with anybody in the country, which they proved with fluke-free victories over North Carolina and Illinois (pre-implosion). Mike Moser is rightfully in the conversation for National POY, averaging a double-double, and shooting close to 47% from the field.

Unlike most mid-majors, UNLV is tall and long. They don't need to light it up from behind the arc, and foul poor-shooting big men in order to pull an upset. When they beat you, they flat out beat you. They're also balanced, ranking Top-50 in the country in both Adjusted Offense, and Adjusted Defense.

With the right draw, they might very well be favored to make the Sweet 16 out of their respective pod.

Southern Mississippi (RPI: T-12)

Record: 22-5

Conference: C-USA

Pomeroy Rankings: 53

Key Victories: Memphis (H); Colorado State (A); Ole Miss (H); Marshall (H); UCF (H/A)

Bad Losses: Houston (A); UAB (A); Denver (A)

The school best known for producing Brett Favre may have something to cheer about on the hardwood this season. While the Golden Eagles are anything but a lock to receive an at-large birth, it would be unprecedented to leave out a team who scores this high in the RPI.

Southern Miss excels with offensive depth, where their top six scorers average between 9.2 and 12.2 points per game. This is eerily reminiscent of the George Mason and VCU teams that made runs to the Final Four.

Their RPI has been helped by consistency throughout the season (even though a recent loss at Houston is unnerving), even though they lack a true signature win outside of a close home victory over Memphis.

It'll be interesting to see how they perform in the C-USA tournament. If they lose early, they could be this year's unpopular team that sneaks into one of the last tourney bids then makes a deep run. Again, the comparisons to VCU and George Mason are uncanny.

Wichita State (RPI: 15)

Record: 24-4

Conference: Missouri Valley

Pomeroy Rankings: 10

Key Victories: Creighton (A, by 19); UNLV (H, by 19); Northern Iowa (H/A); Davidson (A); Missouri St. (H/A)

Bad Losses: Drake (A)

Wichita State seems to be the basketball world's team-du-jour, and with good reason. Recent road shellackings of Creighton and Davidson, when combined with an early-season blowout over UNLV, give the Shockers one of the most impressive mid-major resumes we've seen in a while.

They're also one of only 8 teams in the country that rank in Pomeroy's top 25 for both adjusted offense and adjusted defense. The others, you ask? Kentucky, Ohio State, Michigan State, Kansas, Syracuse, North Carolina and Marquette. If that's not elite company, I don't know what is.

If there's a blueprint for mid-major success, Wichita State fits it perfectly. Previous postseason experience? Check. The Shockers won the NIT last season. Excels from behind the arc? Check. They're one of the best shooting teams in the country. Size in the post? Check. They have a seven-footer in Garrett Stutz.

If Wichita State takes part in an upset this March, they'll have to be on the losing end of it—I wouldn't be surprised to see them beat anybody.

Temple (RPI: 17)

Record: 21-5

Conference: Atlantic 10

Pomeroy Rankings: 31

Key Victories: Duke (H); Wichita St. (H); St. Louis (A); St. Josephs (H); Xavier (H)

Bad Losses: Bowling Green (A); Richmond (A)

In Ramone Moore, Khalif Wyatt, and Juan Hernandez, the Owls have a scoring trio capable of rivaling almost any in the country. In victories over Duke and Wichita State, they have a duo of signature wins that can do the same.

The Owls look good on paper and pass the eye test, which is not unfamiliar territory for the program in recent years. They took San Diego State into double overtime in the Round of 32 last March, but have still yet to make a significant tournament run in recent memory.

I like Temple, but I'm skeptical. They rank 93rd in adjusted defense, which could leave them susceptible to an upset.

Saint Louis (RPI: 21)

Record: 22-5

Conference: Atlantic 10

Pomeroy Rankings: 11

Key Victories: St. Josephs (A); Washington (H)

Bad Losses: Loyola Marymount (A)

Rick Majerus' squad scores favorably in the metrics due to their balance and consistency. Most importantly, they boast a stout, tough squad, that ranks top-10 in the country in adjusted defense.

While their consistency is impressive, their lack of a true, signature win is a cause for concern. A narrow four point loss on the road against New Mexico was probably their best performance of the season.

They blew a chance to beat Temple at home, and it will be interesting to see how they'd fare against the Owls if they got another shot in the conference tourney. I don't see them as one of the 25 best teams in the country.

Gonzaga (RPI: 24)

Record: 21-5

Conference: WCC

Pomeroy Rankings: 33

Key Victories: St. Mary's (H); Notre Dame (H); Oral Roberts (H); Xavier (A)

Bad Losses: San Francisco (A)

It feels weird calling Gonzaga a mid-major at this point, doesn't it?

Alas, the WCC powerhouse is technically a mid-major, and a very good one at that. Between Robert Sacre, Elias Harris, and breakout star Kevin Pangos, the Bulldogs have skilled players on all spots of the floor.

Their performance is good-but-not-great on both ends of the floor, but the combination of talent and Mark Few makes them as dangerous as any in March.

Memphis (RPI: 26)

Record: 19-8

Conference: C-USA

Pomeroy Rankings: 19

Key Victories: Southern Miss (H); Miami (A); Marshall (H); Xavier (H)

Bad Losses: UTEP (H)

Like Gonzaga, Memphis' recent success has made it hard to classify them as a mid-major. But this year, more than any other in recent memory, their underwhelming resume certainly fits the bill of a Conference USA squad.

Despite their lack of a true, signature win (settling for a plethora of wins over other bubble squads), the Tigers rate very high in Pomeroy's metrics on both sides of the ball. They rank 24th in adjusted offense, and 28th in adjusted defense, making them one of the more, balanced, efficient teams in the country.

Joe Jackson was supposed to break out this year, but the once-heralded recruit has once again underwhelmed despite showing flashes of potential. If he can step up his play by the time March comes around, the Tigers will be a team that nobody wants to draw.

New Mexico (RPI: 27)

Record: 22-4

Conference: Mountain West

Pomeroy Rankings: 9

Key Victories: UNLV (H); St. Louis (H); Colorado State (H); San Diego St. (A); Oklahoma St. (N)

Bad Losses: Santa Clara (N); New Mexico St. (H)

Like Wichita St. in the Missouri Valley, New Mexico is the flavor of the month in the Mountain West. They're currently riding a 7-game win streak that includes home wins over UNLV and Colorado St., as well as a rare road win at San Diego St.

UCLA transfer Drew Gordon has made the transition from all-conference player to bonafide superstar in the blink of an eye, a feat that was highlighted by his 27-point, 20-rebound effort against UNLV. 

They held the Rebels to 45 points, which was unsurprising since Pomeroy has them weighted as the ninth best defensive team in the country. Defense, rebounding, and a superstar in the post? Sounds like a formula for postseason success.

Creighton (RPI: 28)

Record: 23-5

Conference: Missouri Valley

Pomeroy Rankings: 37

Key Victories: Wichita St. (A); San Diego St. (A); Northwestern (H); Long Beach St. (H)

Bad Losses: Evansville (A); Missouri St. (H)

There's been much ado made about Doug McDermott, and rightfully so. The wiry coaches son, who has an uncanny ability to finish at odd angles around the basket, is probably the best pure scorer in the country. Think Adam Morrison as a senior, only he's doing it as a sophmore.

True, there's more to this team than McDermott, but the truth is that Creighton is only going as far as their superstar carries them. This team reminds me of Davidson the year they made the Elite 8. That supporting cast was just talented enough to win, but they wouldn't have gotten past the first round without Steph Curry.

Creighton could easily lose in round 1, but they could just as easily be the darlings of this tournament. McDermott is the real deal.

Colorado State (RPI: 29)

Record: 16-9

Conference: Mountain West

Pomeroy Rankings: 98

Key Victories: San Diego St. (H)

Bad Losses: Boise St. (A); TCU (A)

If there's any team rank in the RPI top 50 that stands out as an unabashed fraud, it's gotta be Colorado St.

Yes, the Rams are experiencing a basketball renaissance, having reason to pay attention to the sport for the first time since Jason Smith left. But they aren't one of the 30 best teams in the country. As Pomeroy sees it, they're barely one of the top 100.

That's mostly because they rank 188th in adjusted defense, a stat that they wouldn't be able to get away with against a power-6 squad. There's time for change, though. Their next three games are against New Mexico (H), San Diego St (A) and UNLV (H). Win two of those and they should be solid for an at-large berth. Just don't bank on it happening.

San Diego State (RPI: 31)

Record: 20-6

Conference: Mountain West

Pomeroy Rankings: 60

Key Victories: UNLV (H); New Mexico (A); Cal (H); Long Beach St. (H); Arizona (A)

Bad Losses: Air Force (A)

I'm not one for lying: San Diego St. is no fun to watch. Their plodding, methodical style, when coupled with their severe offensive deficiencies, makes them a nightmare for primetime viewing, and (in the wake of last year's snooze-fest of a title game) probably a team the NCAA would like to see lose in the first weekend.

But dammit, the Aztecs are always one of the toughest outs in March, because they are built for tournament play. This particular version is nowhere near as good as last year's 2nd-seeded team, but they are still founded on the same defensive principles.

A road win at New Mexico stands out as a true, signature victory, but they might not have enough firepower to make a deep run this time around.

Harvard (RPI: 32)

Record: 23-3

Conference: Ivy League

Pomeroy Rankings: 30

Key Victories: Florida St. (N); St. Joseph's (H); UCF (N)

Bad Losses: Fordham (A); Princeton (A)

If "Linsanity" has taught us anything, it's that we can't sleep on Harvard when they have an NBA prospect on their roster. And this year, they have two.

Keith Wright and Kyle Casey provide a legitimate one-two punch for the Crimson, who surround their superstars with players who possess classic Ivy League attributes: intelligence, toughness, and resolve.

This team compares well with the Cornell squad that made waves a couple of seasons ago, and although they haven't swept through Ivy League play as some suspected, they have been pretty dominant. Pomeroy has them weighted as the 18th best defensive team in the country, which gives them a chance on any given night.

Don't be afraid to put them in the Sweet 16 if they get the right draw.

St. Mary's (RPI: 36)

Record: 23-5

Conference: WCC

Pomeroy Rankings: 48

Key Victories: Gonzaga (H); BYU (H/A)

Bad Losses: Denver (A); Loyola Marymount (H)

A recent slide may put a damper on St. Mary's' resume, but it doesn't negate their talented roster.

If you haven't gotten a chance to see Matthew Dellavedova play, you owe it to yourself to do so because he's one of the most exciting players the country has to offer. He's not quite Steve Nash, but he plays the game with the same energy.

St. Mary's struggles on the defensive end of the floor, which is a little unnerving, but if the 3-point line is truly the great equalizer in March, then the Gaels have a chance at beating anybody on any given night. 

Murray State (RPI: 39)

Record: 26-1

Conference: Ohio Valley

Pomeroy Rankings: 57

Key Victories: Southern Miss (N); Memphis (A); St. Mary's (H)

Bad Losses: Tennessee St. (H)

The Racers can't help what conference they play in. Despite a SOS ranking of 233, Murray St. has managed to put together a top-39 RPI and a resume that includes three very solid victories—more solid, in fact, than many of the bubble teams from power-6 conferences.

Murray St. is a veteran squad, and a program that has made noise in the NCAA tournament before. They have quick, athletic guards, and high-energy big men. They remind me a lot of the Siena team that upset Ohio St. a couple years back. They should be in even if they lose their conference tournament, but I expect them to win it just to make a statement.

Long Beach State (RPI: 41)

Record: 19-7

Conference: Big West

Pomeroy Rankings: 44

Key Victories: Xavier (N); Pittsburgh (A)

Bad Losses: Montana (A)

Casper. Ware. Can. Ball.

Long Beach State did what the committee implores mid-majors to do, and went on the road to face as much top-flight competition as they could (they had the top non-conference SOS in the country).

Although those games amounted only to wins over underachieving Pitt and Xavier, Long Beach stayed competitive everywhere it went, proving that they should be viewed as a legitimate threat in March.

Most recently, it took a buzzer-beater for Creighton to beat them on their own home floor, a place where they have beaten Wichita St. and Northwestern. This team can really drain the 3-ball, and have a bonafide superstar in Ware. Watch out for them in March.

Middle Tennessee State (RPI: 42)

Record: 24-4

Conference: Sun Belt

Pomeroy Rankings: 49

Key Victories: Ole Miss (N); Belmont (H); Akron (H); Loyola Marymount (A)

Bad Losses: UAB (A); Denver (A)

Middle Tennessee is probably the least talked about squad on this list, but they've got a chance to sneak up on some people.

A home win over Akron is nothing to scoff at, and the same can be said about a road win over Loyola Marymount (who has beaten St. Louis, BYU and St. Mary's) and home win over Belmont.

MTSU doesn't do anything exceptionally well, but they do everything efficiently. Size and rebounding may be an issue, so don't expect them to upset a team with a big frontcourt (Baylor would love to get this matchup in round 1).

They're a lot like a poor man's St. Louis, but that isn't really a bad thing. I don't feel confident that they'll win a game in March, but if they get the right matchup they could easily spring an upset. 

Iona (RPI: 44)

Record: 22-6

Conference: MAAC

Pomeroy Rankings: 52

Key Victories: St. Joseph's (H); Nevada (H)

Bad Losses: Hofstra (A); Siena (A); Manhattan (H)

Whoever gets the Gaels in round one had better be ready for a shootout.

Iona has a very impressive cast of characters for a MAAC squad. The show starts with Scott Machado, the leading assist man in the nation. He orchestrates the 18th best adjusted offense in the country, dishing the ball to man-child Michael Glover in the post, and the mercurial Momo Jones, who starred for Arizona on last year's Final Four team before transferring.

This team really struggles on defense, but their ability to score will keep them in any game. They are unquestionably good enough to reach the Sweet 16.

St. Joseph's (RPI: 46)

Record: 18-10

Conference: Atlantic 10

Pomeroy Rankings: 59

Key Victories: Creighton (H); Dayton (H); La Salle (H); Drexel (H)

Bad Losses: Charlotte (H); American (A); Penn (A); UMass (A)

St. Joe's has an esteemed program history, but even with an impressive paper resume, they have been a little underwhelming in 2012.

They haven't won a meaningful game outside of their home arena, and have some of the worst losses on their resume of any bubble team in the nation.

The biggest story coming out of St. Joe's this year hasn't even concerned their team. It's been the story of Todd O'Brien, the former Hawk who Phil Martelli wouldn't allow to transfer to UAB.

I've watched this team play, and they didn't look like a tournament team.

Brigham Young (RPI: 47)

Record: 23-6

Conference: WCC

Pomeroy Rankings: 32

Key Victories: Gonzaga (H); Nevada (N); Oregon (N)

Bad Losses: Utah St. (A); Loyola Marymount (H)

Beating Gonzaga has proven to be no easy feat for any WCC teams, making the Cougars' 83-73 victory over the Bulldogs all the more impressive.

This team lacks the explosive scoring punch they had with Jimmer-Mania last year, but they might be better overall. Whereas last year they abandoned their effort on the defensive side of the ball (they couldn't stop Florida to save their lives in the tournament), this team has re-committed to the ideals of BYU basketball, ranking 20th in adjusted defense.

This team reminds me a lot of Michigan St. this year: after losing their supposed "star" players, they went back to playing the old school style that made them prominent programs in the first place. They aren't nearly as good as MSU, but they should be a threat on the opening weekend.

Oral Roberts (RPI: 49)

Record: 25-5

Conference: Summit

Pomeroy Rankings: 88

Key Victories: Xavier (A); Akron (H)

Bad Losses: UTSA (N); Oklahoma (A)

Okay. Maybe Middle Tennessee wasn't the least talked about team in the RPI Top-50.

Oral Roberts is a powerhouse inside the Summit League, and they have one of their best teams this season. The BracketBuster win over Akron this weekend stands out as a true signature victory.

They aren't particularly big, so again, a team with a good frontcourt should be able to knock them out, but any team that overlooks them in round one could be sent home earlier than they would like to. Pomeroy has them as the 33rd best adjusted offense in the country.