UFC 144: Early Odds and Predictions for the Fight Card

The UFC's highly anticipated return to Japan is less than a week away. It is the UFC's first trip to Japan since December of 2000, and the Japanese fans are being rewarded for their patience by being treated to a stacked card in UFC 144.

Now it's time to take a look at the odds, breakdown the fights and make some predictions for the upcoming action at the Saitama Super Arena in Tokyo. 

Takanora Gomi (32-8) vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (18-7-2)

Odds: TBD

Fighter Analysis: Takanori Gomi was a legend in Japan during his career with Pride Fighting Championships. He won 12 of his final 13 fights, before a no-contest ruling against Nick Diaz in his last Pride bout before the organization folded. His transition to the UFC has not been so smooth. Gomi has lost three ouf of his four fights in the UFC. 

Eiji Mitsuoka made his MMA debut in 2001 and had a brief stint in Pride Fighting Championships, as well. He enters this fight having won seven of his last nine fights, six of which by submission.  

Breakdown: Gomi has lost his last two fights by submission, so look for Mitsuoka to try to extend that streak to three. Both fighters are from Japan, so there won't be a home-country advantage. Mitsuoka will be looking to finish the fight on the ground; but I think Gomi will be game for the challenge and connect on some strikes. 

Prediction: Takanori Gomi by knockout in Round 2

Anthony Pettis (12-2) vs. Joe Lauzon (20-6)

Odds: Lauzon +180, Pettis -260

Fighter Analysis: After defeating Ben Henderson in the final fight of the WEC, highlighted by the "kick heard round the world," Anthony Pettis probably thought he would be the former-WEC star to get the first crack at the UFC Lightweight belt. But a loss to Clay Guida, coupled by a Henderson victory over Guida, opened the door for Bendo to fight for the UFC Lightweight Championship. Pettis rebounded after his defeat with a split-decision victory over Jeremy Stephens in UFC 136. 

Joe Lauzon is a seasoned veteran in the UFC with a career record of 8-3. His last four fights have ended in submissions with Lauzon being the victor in three of the four fights. 

Breakdown: Pettis is hoping that this could be his breakout performance in the UFC. His takedown defense has proven to be his greatest weakness, and Lauzon could look to exploit that early in the fight. Lauzon likes to start at a tireless pace right from the opening bell but has a tendency to run out of gas later in the fight. I believe Pettis' superior conditioning and style will eventually wear down Lauzon towards the end of the Round 2 and into Round 3. 

Prediction: Anthony Pettis by unanimous decision

Hatsu Hioki (25-4-2) vs. Bart Palaszewski (36-14)

Odds: TBD

Fighter Analysis: Each fighter enters this bout with a 1-0 record in the UFC and is hoping to take the next step toward a title shot with a victory in Tokyo. 

Palaszewski had a knockout of Tyson Griffin in his UFC debut and is the only fighter besides Clay Guida who can claim a victory over Anthony Pettis.

Hioki enters the fight on a five-fight win streak. Three of those wins have come by way of unanimous decision and the other two via submission. 

Breakdown: The last two UFC events in Brazil demonstrated that fighting in one's home country can be a major advantage in MMA. The silent Japanese crowd will be a different atmosphere than Palasaewski is accustomed to and it could throw Palaszewski off his game. 

Hioki's length and superior grappling should prove to be the difference in this fight; although Palaszewski is possibly the better striker and could have an advantage on the feet. 

Prediction: Hatsu Hioki by unanimous decision

Yushin Okami (26-6) vs. Tim Boetch (14-4)

Odds:TBD

Fighter Analysis: Yushin Okami has been arguably the most successful Japanese fighter in UFC history, with a record of 10-3 inside the Octagon. His most recent task was possibly the most daunting in all of MMA, when he took on Anderson Silva in Brazil. 

This time, Okami will enjoy the home-crowd advantage. He is taking on Tim Boetch, who has a record of 3-1 in the UFC. All three of Boetch's wins came by way of unanimous decision, and his sole defeat was to light heavyweight Phil Davis. 

Breakdown: Okami will prove to be a step-up in competition at the middleweight division for Boetch. Okami is the far superior grappler, and that should prove to be the difference in the fight. If they stay on their feet, Boetch has a puncher's chance. The tactical striking of Okami makes him superior on his feet, as well.

Boetch could prove to be the recipient of Okami's frustrations after his loss to Anderson Silva in Brazil

Prediction: Yushin Okami by knockout in Round 2

Jake Shields (26-6-1) vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama

Odds: TBD

Fighter Analysis: This fight is an intriguing matchup featuring two fighters whose UFC careers haven't gone according to plan. They each entered the organization with over 10-fight win streaks, won their first fights in the UFC and haven't earned a victory since. 

Jake Shields' 15-fight winning streak before his lackluster unanimous-decision loss to Georges St. Pierre included victories over Dan Henderson, Paul Daley, Yushin Okami, Nick Thompson, Robbie Lawler, Jason Miller and Martin Kampmann.

After his loss to GSP, Shields was quickly knocked out in Round 1 against Jake Ellenberger. That fight came shortly after the death of Shields' father, and it was surprising to some that Shields even fought that night. 

Another twist to this fight is that Akiyama is stepping down from middleweight to welterweight. Akiyama has lost three fights in a row in the middleweight division, to Chris Leben, Michael Bisping and Vitor Belfort in succession. Shields used to fight at middleweight, as well, and appeared to be more explosive and better conditioned in that weight class. His last fight at middleweight was a victory over Dan Henderson right before Henderson went on to beat Fedor Emelianenko and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.

Breakdown: This fight is going to revive the UFC career of one fighter and deliver a blow to the career of the other. Akiyama has shown to have questions with his conditioning and a drop to 170 pounds probably won't help. Akiyama is the superior striker so he could take the fight if Shields decides to keep the fight standing. If Shields sticks to his game plan then his superior grappling should result in a disappointing homecoming for the man that calls himself "Sexyama."  

Prediction: Shields by submission in Round 3

Bonus Prediction: Shields will earn Submission of the Night

Mark Hunt (7-7) vs. Cheick Kongo (17-6)

Odds: Cheick Kongo -280, Mark Hunt +200

Fighter Analysis: At first glance, the 7-7 record of MMA veteran Mark Hunt can be misleading. He fought elite heavyweights in Pride Fighting Championships and Dream throughout his career in Japan. His record includes wins over Mirko Filipovic and Wanderlei Silva and losses to Alistair Overeem, Fedor Emelianenko and Josh Barnett.

After going nearly five years without a victory, Hunt has had a resurgence in the UFC with a knockout of Chris Tuchsherer and a decision victory over Ben Rothwell. 

Hunt is stepping up in competition in Tokyo when he takes on Cheick Kongo. Kongo has won three of his last four fights, with the only blemish coming by way of draw versus Travis Browne. Kongo has been impressive in his last two fights since that draw with Browne. He knocked out Pat Barry in arguably the most exciting round in heavyweight history, and then won a decision over Matt Mitrione. 

Breakdown: Hunt will undoubtedly be inspired by fighting in Japan. He also has an arsenal of kicks and punches that could end the fight at any given moment. Kongo's defense has been questionable at times, and that could be disastrous against somebody with the power of Mark Hunt. With that said, I think the Octagon experience and tactical skills of Kongo will prove to be a difference. 

Prediction: Kongo by unanimous decision

Quinton "Rampage Jackson (32-9) vs. Ryan Bader (13-2)

Odds: Rampage -260, Bader +200.

Fighter Analysis: Quinton "Rampage" Jackson has wanted to return to fight in Japan for years. Dana White listened and granted Rampage his wish. Jackson fought 14 times for Pride Fighting Championships in Japan, where he was a legend. Jackson is hoping to rebound from his submission defeat to Jon Jones with a win in Tokyo. 

Ryan Bader was putting himself in line for a title shot after winning the Season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter. Like Jackson, he was submitted by Jones, and received the first blemish on his record. Bader was then upset by Rampage's buddy, Tito Ortiz, by knockout in Round 1. Bader has since rebounded with a first-round knockout of his own over Jason Brilz. 

Breakdown: Rampage's mindset will be the difference in this fight. If he comes out focused, Bader won't have an answer for him. Rampage is the superior striker and should catch Bader at some point in the fight. Bader is an excellent wrestler and will probably try to take Rampage down at some point. Rampage has some of the best takedown defense in the sport and Bader could get frustrated after a failed attempt or two. 

On the flip side, if Rampage is too confident or possibly even too anxious then he could leave himself vulnerable and get knocked out as well. 

Prediction: Rampage by knockout in Round 2

Bonus Prediction: Knockout of the Night

Frankie Edgar (14-1-1) vs. Ben Henderson (15-2)

Odds: Frankie Edgar -125, Ben Henderson +105

Fighter Analysis: Frankie Edgar's last two fights against Gray Maynard were epic. In each fight, Edgar seemed to be on the verge of being finished early in the fight, only to make a miraculous comeback for a draw in UFC 125, and then a knockout in Round 4 at UFC 136 to finally defeat Maynard. 

Henderson's career hasn't quite been as Rocky-esque as Edgar's; but he has compiled an impressive record himself by winning 13 of his last 14 fights, including victories over Jim Miller, Donald Cerrone and Clay Guida. 

Breakdown: It is hard to believe that this is already the fourth title defense for Edgar. Edgar walks around at 145 pounds, and his endurance and speed have caused nightmares for the rest of the lightweight division.

Henderson is an intriguing task for the UFC Lightweight Champion. He possesses speed, endurance and a skill set that rivals Frankie.

This fight will probably be another five-round instant classic. 

Predictions. Edgar by split decision

Bonus Prediction: Fight of the Night