2012 NFL Draft: 5 Key Elements for a Successful Cowboys Draft

With the NFL draft on the horizon, football fans are heading into a very exciting time of year.  Although Cowboys fans still feel the disappointment of falling short on expectations in 2011, the draft is usually a time of year that provides new optimism for all teams.  It's a time to build off of free agency, upgrade the roster and fill needs and also give the fans a preview of what may lie ahead.  The obvious goal when draft day arrives is for the Cowboys to essentially hit on as many picks as possible while avoiding the dreaded multiple bust scenario. 

I don't know about you, but when I think back to that pitiful 2009 draft (which is often) it's hard not to feel the incompetence of our GM and the lost opportunity.  So while we sat back in 2009 and watched duds like Jason Williams, Robert Brewster, Michael Hamlin, DeAngelo Smith and Brandon Williams get drafted we also missed out on players like Mike Wallace, DeAndre Levy, D.J. Moore, Ladarius Webb and Louis Vasquez. 

Sure, it's easy to second guess or "Monday morning quarterback," but that's not the goal here and the past can't be changed.  What the Cowboys need to do is stick with and stay true to some fundamental elements of drafting.

Every team whiffs on draft picks and those "can't miss" prospects which has been evidenced by Jamarcus Russell, Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Andre Wadsworth and Akili Smith.  Some busts set franchises back years in growth and development, and some teams simply put it behind them and move on. 

The key for the Cowboys in this year's draft, and Jason Garrett's second, is to develop a continued philosophy that will be the blueprint for sustained success.  Jerry Jones is known for getting enamored with players like Martellus Bennett and developing that must-have-this-guy attitude, but he needs to stay true to the board and really lean on Garrett, the coaches and the work done all year by scouting director Tom Ciskowski and the scouts. 

I want to highlight the key elements that I feel will help guide the Cowboys to a successful 2012 draft.

1.  Determining Need or Value - This has been an ongoing debate for years.  Do we draft for our biggest needs or do we draft the best player.  If you study the draft over the years the trend has consistently been to place premiums on quarterbacks, dominating pass rushers and left tackles.  Some teams simply adopt a best available player policy and the Cowboys are one of them.  But when you truly look at the real needs of a team like Dallas, should you be filling them in the sixth and seventh rounds ?  I think not. 

The Cowboys have tried to fill needs in the secondary with picks like Michael Hamlin, DeAngelo Smith and Jamar Wall and have failed miserably.  As a result we've been forced to stick with Alan Ball and sign players like Frank Walker while we watch teams pick us apart.  Last year's pick, Tyron Smith, was a prime of example of getting great balance between need and value and that's what Jerry Jones needs to do, find balance.  He was a high need player that was high on our board. I think players like Kirkpatrick and Jenkins fall into this category and would provide that perfect balance to start our 2012 draft. 

2.  Recognizing falling draft stock - The beginning of every college football season comes with new rankings for everything from Heisman hopefuls to potential first overall draft picks.  Underclassmen who stick around, as well as seniors, who either hurt their draft chances or significantly improved them, and that continues into the combine and the draft. 

While every team builds their draft board differently one thing is common among them and that is the falling draft prospect.  From reasons to off-the-field issues, injury or bad forty times, some of the higher rated prospects take a nose dive.  It happens every year. 

The Cowboys have three examples from the last few drafts in Dez Bryant, Sean Lee and Bruce Carter.  In each case it boiled down to off-field issues for Bryant and injuries for Lee and Carter.  Overall, I think this has been an area where the Cowboys have excelled lately and it would be nice to continue that.

3.  Success in the later rounds - I truly believe in the theory that teams primed every year for deep playoff runs have success in the later rounds of the draft.  A lot of emphasis is placed on hitting home runs with the first three picks but it's harder to get the same impact with the later picks.  As an organization it takes harder work to uncover the true diamonds in the rough. 

One NFL draft pick that comes to mind recently is when the Saints drafted Marcus Colston in the seventh round.  For Cowboys fans, names like Larry Brown and Leon Lett come to mind.  Ah, the good old days !  To really arm your team with depth in the supporting cast roles and to solidify the roster to sustain the injuries, you need to have some degree of success in the later rounds.  The Cowboys need to start uncovering some of those diamonds in 2012.

4.  Evaluating prospects beyond the stats - It's very easy to latch on to a running back or wide receiver who was able to achieve record setting statistics, but it doesn't always translate or guarantee greatness in the NFL.  Reggie Bush would be an example of exactly what I just described.  With the level of competition ranging so wide at the collegiate level some of those statistics can be misleading. 

For the Cowboys to properly evaluate draft prospects they need to analyze their performances in big games and against the best competition.  I don't want to minimize the importance of statistics but I just don't think it should be the most determining factor for the Cowboys when determining the right draft picks for this team.

5.  Maximizing draft picks - There are a lot of different arguments when it comes to discussing trading of draft picks.  You see what Belichick is able to do when he stockpiles first and second round picks, and Cowboy fans remember the way Jimmy Johnson used to maneuver around a draft board.  A common point of reference in the draft today is that each first round pick has a slotted trade value assigned to it and therefore moving up can be an expensive proposition.  That didn't stop the Falcons from moving up all the way to select Julio Jones last year, and there could be a team looking to do the same with RG3 this year.   

It all boils down to what teams are willing to pay by moving up for need and value or trading down to max out their picks.  Either strategy can be successful or not.  Usually teams who identify a falling prospect will trade down pick up extra picks and still get their player or sometimes not. 

On the flip side teams identify a prospect they have highly rated and aren't afraid to go get what they want.  The Jets did that when they selected Darelle Revis. 

Jerry Jones has been known to adopt both strategies and it's come with mixed results.  Sometimes it's quality over quantity and just the opposite.  What the Cowboys need to do is be prepared for all situations when it will benefit them most.

The draft isn't an exact science and it's also hard to predict.  Some teams lean on strong fundamentals and philosophy, some rely on letting the draft dictate what they will do and some simply have a different plan every year. 

When you look at the five key elements as a guideline for the draft ,sometimes it's hard to overlook the most important element of all, and that's luck.  Whether you believe in luck or not, all the elements need to fall into place for a successful draft.  Here's hoping that will happen for the Cowboys in 2012.