UFC on Fuel 1: Thoughts on Ellenberger-Sanchez and Every Fight

Here are thoughts on every preliminary and main card fight to take place next Wednesday on UFC on Fuel 1. Many of the fighters are making their UFC debuts and so there are many fighters at this event I have never seen fight before. Many of my thoughts and evaluations are based upon their fight records which are conveniently displayed on sherdog.com.

Bernardo Magalhaes v. Tim Means (Lightweight)

Both of these competitors will be making their UFC debuts next Wednesday. Magalhaes is 11-1, nine of his 11 wins have come by decision (the other two by submission). In stark contrast, Means' overall record is 16-3-1, he has finished all but one of his victories (12 of those by knockout). This could be an interesting fight as Means finishes his fights and Magalhaes tends to go the distance, it will be a battle to see who ends the fight their way.

If pressed to pick a winner I would go with Means who has proven capable of finishing the fight.

Anton Kuivanen v. Justin Salas (Lightweight)

Another pair of UFC newcomers square off in the next preliminary fight. Salas seems to be well rounded. He is 9-3 with three victories coming from submission, three victories coming from KO/TKO and three were decision wins. Kuivanen is 16-4 with half of his wins coming by submission, it appears he is dangerous on the ground. Salas has been submitted in two of his three losses, which plays into Kuivanen's strength, although it is a small sample size.

I choose Kuivanen and his submission skills.

Buddy Roberts v. Sean Loeffler (Middleweight)

Is it possible every fighter on this card is making their UFC debut? This fight will be interesting because both fighters are big finishers. Roberts has finished in nine of his 11 victories. Meanwhile, Loeffler has finished 24 of his fights, only one of his victims have lasted to a decision.

I'll pick the more veteran Loeffler.

Jonathan Brookins v. Vanger Rocha (Featherweight)

This is a grappler v. grappler match up. Rocha is a BJJ black belt with five of his victories coming from submission, he is 7-2 overall. Brookins is only a purple belt, but he has shown good jiu-jitsu skills in his matches. He has eight submission victories, with an overall record of 12-4. Brookins performed poorly in his bout with Erik Koch. He failed to bring Koch down to the mat where he could use his jiu-jitsu, despite trying to do so the entire fight. Brookins was picked apart by Koch during the striking exchanges. It is impossible to trust Brookins' ability to win on his feet, although he can have some effectiveness in the clinch. Still, Brookins' best weapon is his BJJ. Unfortunately, Rocha's BJJ is better. Hopefully, their ground games does not negate keeping this battle from hitting the mat. It will be much more exciting the more they are on the ground.

I will take Rocha for the win, although I would rather see the TUF champ win. 

 Ivan Menjivar v. John Albert (Bantamweight) 

Menjivar is a UFC veteran of two fights. He is a well-rounded fighter with about as many TKO/KO victories as submission victories. Albert is also a well-rounded fighter. The young, TUF alum, has never gone the distance in any of his fights. This fight should be thrilling, whether it takes place on their feet or on the ground.  

Albert is the taller fighter and I think he has the all around game to pick up his second straight victory in the UFC.

Walel Watson v. T.J. Dillsahaw (Bantamweight) 

T.J. Dillashaw will compete in his first fight since losing The Ultimate Fighter 14 bantamweight championship. Dillashaw is a top notch wrestler with some power in his hands. He is only 4-1 in his MMA career, but he has already finished three fights (two submissions and one TKO). T.J.'s only weakness is defending strikes. He has a tendency to keep his hands low and was knocked down in the first round of his bout with John Dodson, which led to his only career loss.

Walel Watson is a tall bantamweight at 5'11". He is 9-3 in his career with seven wins coming by submission. He is 1-1 in the UFC, he lost most recently to Yves Jabouin by split decision. Watson's size will serve him well if he can establish a jab and keep Dillashaw at a distance. This is going to be a great fight. The stand up exchanges should go back and forth as T.J. tries to get inside and land big shots, setting up the take down. On the ground, Dillashaw will likely be able to control Watson with his wrestling, but he will have to be wary of being submitted.

I'll take the explosiveness of Dillashaw in this one, as I think he will control Watson on the ground and dominate there and I do not think Watson can knock him out on his way in.

Stripe Miocic v. Phillip De Fries (Heavyweight)

This battle features two undefeated heavyweights, each with one victory in the UFC. This match seems to be a classic striker versus grappler matchup. Miocic has knocked out five of his seven opponents; De Fries has submitted seven of his eight opponents.

I will take Miocic because he has more buzz. I have not seen either opponent fight yet, so I am a little in the dark on this one.

Aaron Simpson v. Ronny Markes (Middleweight)

Simpson is a wrestler with an 11-2 record, he has knocked out six of his opponents. He is 6-2 in the UFC, with his only two defeats coming at the hands of Mark Munoz and Chris Leben. Simpson has won three in a row. Markes is a young up-and-comer. He is only 23, but has amassed a record of 12-1. He is well rounded with five of his victories coming by TKO/KO and four coming by way of submission. He has one UFC victory. Markes will be looking to make a big step in the division while Simpson is trying to extend his win streak and solidify his spot just below the top middleweights.

Although I believe Markes is capable of winning this bout, I think the experience of Simpson will prevail.

Stefan Struve v. Dave Herman (Heavyweight)

Struve is coming off a highlight reel submission win over Pat Barry. "Skyscraper's" claim to fame is his 6'11" frame. Struve is 22-5 in his career, 15 of his wins have come by submission. He is 6-3 in his UFC career. However, his three losses have all come to current top ten heavyweights: Junior Dos Santos, Roy Nelson and Travis Browne.

Herman is a wrestler and only has one UFC fight and victory on his resume. He is 21-2 overall with 15 of his victories coming in the form of KO/TKOs. Herman clearly has the knockout power capable of dismantling Struve and his wrestling should be a nice match against Struve's submission skills.

I am taking Herman in this one. His wrestling should nullify Struve's jiu-jitsu and he will land the bigger shots.

Jake Ellenberger v. Diego Sanchez (Welterweight)

Jake Ellenberger has been climbing up the welterweight rankings, and a victory over Sanchez would likely make him the next in line for a title shot. He is 26-5 with 17 TKO/KOs in his career. He is 5-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming to current interim champion, Carlos Condit, by split decision. Ellenberger was last seen knocking out Jake Shields in the opening round of their bout last fall. Ellenberger is a well-rounded fighter as he was a wrestler in college and has perhaps the best knockout power in the welterweight division.

His opponent, Deigo Sanchez, is also a well-rounded fighter. Six of his 23 wins have come by knockout, while another nine victories have come by submission. Sanchez was, of course, The Ultimate Fighter 1 middleweight champion. Sanchez will try to keep pressure on Ellenberger and set a fast pace. He will likely try to disrupt his rhythm and prevent Ellenberger from setting up his big right hand. Hopefully, this fight will deliver as two of the most explosive fighters in the UFC square off. However, exciting welterweights featured on main event's have underwhelmed before.

I think Ellenberger is too powerful to be denied in this fight, eventually knocking Sanchez out. However, I do think Sanchez can win this fight if he proves to be the better wrestler and puts Ellenberger on his back.

I have yet to see Ellenberger's guard tested. A victory for Ellenberger should set up a rematch with Carlos Condit this summer with interim belt and a date with Georges St. Pierre in November on the line.

That wraps up the fight card for next Wednesday. Feel free to comment with your thoughts on these fights or predictions of your own.