For Tiger Woods, There Is One Event More Important Than All the Rest

Tiger Woods will make his 2012 U.S. debut this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Following what will be his first appearance at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am since 2002; Woods will likely attend the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship, the WGC-CA Championship and the Arnold Palmer Invitational in preparation for the first and possibly the only event on his 2012 golf calendar that really matters – The Masters.

Woods' ultimate goal in golf is and always has been to break Jack Nicklaus' record of 18 major championship victories.

As a child, Woods would hang clips of Nicklaus’ records on his bedroom mirror as motivation.

Throughout college those same clips could still be seen hanging on Woods’ mirror as motivation to hit the gym instead of the bars, or to hit another bucket of balls instead of playing video games in the dorm.

Throughout the past three years, Woods has suffered through injuries, an embarrassing scandal, a divorce, a split with his long-time caddie and a new swing change that, though he will never admit it, has taken longer to master that Woods would have liked.

Yet, the man keeps on coming.

He keeps on working to improve his game and get back to a point where he can once again triumph on golf's biggest stages.  

It’s not because he needs the money, and it this point in his life it’s probably not because he enjoys putting his already battered body through the physical strain of hours in the gym and hours more on the practice range each and every day.

Nope, it’s all done with one goal in mind, that same goal he’s had since he was just a small child getting dressed for school while looking at Nicklaus’ records hanging on his bedroom mirror.

As every golf fan knows, there are four major championships held every year.  So, Woods will have 36 opportunities to win five majors between now and his 45th birthday.

That being said, Woods’ chances of breaking Nicklaus’ record will depend heavily on his success at only one of those four majors – The Masters.

Understandably, due to injuries, off the course issues, swing changes, etc., Woods has taken his lumps at numerous major championships over the past three years.  But, that has not been the case with The Masters.

Woods tied for second at the 2008 Masters despite playing with an ACL injury.

In 2009, shortly after returning from an eight month layoff following reconstructive ACL surgery, Woods managed to tie for sixth at Augusta.

In 2010, despite being his first tournament back after a four-and-a-half month self-imposed exile, Woods somehow managed to tie for fourth and gave himself a legitimate chance at capturing his fifth green jacket well into Sunday afternoon.

And last year, despite being in the midst of a swing change while also suffering from knee and Achilles tendon injuries, Woods very nearly won the Masters and wound up finishing tied for fourth.

In terms of Woods’ quest for 18, it will all come down to a little piece of property in northeastern Georgia – Augusta National.

If Woods does not capture at least three green jackets over the next 10 years, his chances of catching Nicklaus will be slim at best.

Why?

Because throughout Woods’ entire career he has not been nearly as consistent at any of the other four majors as he has at The Masters.

Since 1997, Woods has finished outside of the Top 10 at Augusta just three times.

During that same 15-year time period, Woods has finished outside of the Top Five at Augusta just five times.

As Woods begins to age, winning events on long, tough, grueling golf courses will become more and more difficult. 

He may capture another U.S. Open or PGA Championship, but a combination of lost distance, streaky putting, competition from young 20-something bombers and a body that appears far older than its 36 years will make winning these events significantly more difficult for Woods in the coming years.  

In terms of the Open Championship, Woods went on a streak where he had seven Top 10 finishes in nine Open Championships between 1998 and 2006.  However, since 2006 Woods has missed two Opens due to injuries and has failed the crack the Top 10 in the other two, including an embarrassing missed cut at Turnberry back in 2009.

In benign conditions, Woods may still have a chance to tack on another Open Championship by strategically attacking the course in a manner similar to what he did back in 2006 at Royal Liverpool where he pulled out his driver only twice in four rounds.

But wind, rain, hail and whatever else falls from the sky over on that side of the pond will not bode well for an aging golfer with a bad knee and a driver he hasn’t been able to control in years.  

So yes, there are four majors played every year and during the next nine years, barring any injuries, scandals, divorces, etc., Woods will likely have 36 opportunities to win five more majors.

But, nine of those 36 majors will be considerably more important for Woods as he attempts to scale Mt. Nicklaus, because if Woods does not add at least three more green jackets to his wardrobe over the next nine years, the summit of Mt. Nicklaus may just become unreachable.

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