Can the Super Bowl Make 2012 the Greatest NFL Postseason Ever?

Is it just me, or have there been some fantastic NFL playoff games this season? Nah, it can't just be me.

We were treated to back-to-back three-point games in the conference championships, both of which came down to a last-second kick. As good as those games were, there is no doubt the best playoff game of the year–maybe the best playoff game in recent memory–was the San Francisco 49ers' victory over the New Orleans Saints. And I've yet to mention the Tebow overtime game. 

The numbers have backed up the storylines, too. Heading into the Super Bowl, four of the last six playoff games were decided by one possession. Like most playoff seasons, there have been a few clunkers this year, but the great games have been some of the greatest we will ever remember.

So…is it just me, or is this one of the best playoff seasons ever? Let's look at the numbers.

The numbers above include every playoff game since the 1999-2000 season, the first of which included 11 playoff games (or four Wild Card teams). For the sake of argument, I'm allowing these numbers to illustrate that close games equate to better games. Certainly a close game doesn't have to be great and there have been some absolutely fantastic playoff matchups that ended with double-digit results. That said, in most cases the closer a game is, the more exciting the finish will be, and the more exciting the finish, the more we seem to view the game as great.

Empirically speaking, the 2011-12 playoffs are not the closest ever, by some margin. While five of the 10 playoff games this year were decided by six points or less, the other five were decided by an astounding 22.4 points per game. 

To compare that with the regular season, no team had a higher margin of victory than the Green Bay Packers (15-1) at 12.6 points per game. If you calculate that number with their wins only, the Packers won their games by an average of 13.7 points, barely higher than the current playoff average. That doesn't look very good for the playoffs.

So no, despite a few memorable games, this cannot be the best playoff season ever. It's not even close.

Let's figure out which year was.

Based on playoff margin, the best playoff season ever came following the 2006-07 season (note: years on the charts indicate playoff seasons, not regular seasons). The 2007 playoffs had an average margin of victory of just nine points per game, making it the closest–and likely best–playoff run since the expansion of the Wild Card. Right? 

Wrong. The 2007 playoffs had a Super Bowl that was decided by 12 points, the fourth-worst margin of victory in the Super Bowl in the last decade. That year also saw one of the biggest conference championship blowouts in the last 20 years when the Bears defeated the Saints by 25 points. Certainly one of the best playoff seasons since the Wild Card expansion, it's hard to consider the 2007 playoff the absolute best when there have been much closer championship and Super Bowl contests.

Where do we look next? Well, the chart above adds another level to the discussion. The 2007 playoffs had seven of the 11 games decided by less than 10 points, six of which were decided by one possession or less, which accounts for such a low average margin of victory. But a blowout in one of the two conference title games and a 12-point margin in the Super Bowl all but eliminate 2007 as the best playoff season.   

That narrows the list down to four other possible years, all of which had single-digit average margins of victory: 2008, 2004, 1998 and 2011. 

The 2008 playoffs (2007 season) have received a lot of publicity this week, with the Patriots and Giants ending the 2007 season with one of the most memorable Super Bowls of all time. Nothing in recent memory can top a huge underdog beating an undefeated juggernaut in such amazing fashion.

The 2008 playoffs also got better as they went along, with three double-digit victories in the Wild Card round, two in the Divisional round and no double-digit victories in the conference title games or Super Bowl. The Giants won the Super Bowl that year with a total margin of victory of 20 points…in four games.

The 2004 playoffs (2003 season) featured a New England team right in the middle of their dynastic run through the early aughts. That year had an average win margin of 9.4 points and  seven of the 11 games were decided by less than 10 points, all of which were decided by a touchdown or less.

The 2004 playoffs also had very few blowouts, featuring just two games of more than an 11-point difference with only one game having a final margin of more than 20 points–one of only three seasons since 2000 to have so few blowouts.

There were some very compelling conference title games that were pretty close in the 2004 playoffs, as well. The Patriots beat the rival Colts by 10 points to get to the Super Bowl while the Panthers famously went into Philadelphia to knock off the Eagles by 11. Neither game was a last-second victory, but both games were rather memorable. And, lest we forget in all the Patriots love, Panthers almost won that Super Bowl, a game some were calling the best Super Bowl of all time (at the time).

The 1998 playoffs (1997 season) are most remembered for one thing: John Elway getting his first Super Bowl ring. The Broncos won the Super Bowl over Green Bay by seven points, one of only five single-digit victories that postseason. The average margin of 9.8 is drastically skewed by two one-point victories and a three-point win. 

We may never see a bigger quarterback matchup in the Super Bowl as Brett Favre going for his second-consecutive trophy against Elway going for his elusive first. That probably doesn't do enough to make it the best postseason ever. 

By the numbers, 2011 may have given us the best postseason ever. Of the 11 playoff games last season, there were only two blowouts, with nine games decided by 11 points or less. Of those nine games, eight were decided by a touchdown or less and five of those were decided by fewer than seven points.

The 9.5-point margin of victory in 2011 is fourth best in the Wild Card era and the eight one-score games are the most in any post season. 

The championship games and Super Bowl last year were decided by a total of 18 points, meaning the three most important games of the NFL season all came down to less than a touchdown–the only time that has happened in the expanded Wild Card era. 

Clearly, the 2012 post season won't statistically be the closest playoffs ever. With a current average margin of victory at 13.5 points, the 2012 playoffs are right in the middle of the pack. Having said that, the Super Bowl betting line is currently three points, meaning the average margin of victory this season could drop to around 12.5 points per game.

Right now the current margin of victory in the championship round is three points, so if the Super Bowl is as close as many people think it will be, the 2012 playoffs will end with quite a bang. We won't have the best postseason ever, but we still could have the best championship rounds, which has to be what matters the most.

No matter what transpires in the Super Bowl, we are guaranteed a better playoff season than 2001 or 1993. Giants fans surely remember the 2001 playoffs, being decimated by the Ravens in a 27-point loss after shutting out the Vikings 41-0 in the conference title game. The 2001 playoffs had just two games decided by less than 10 points and both came in the Wild Card round.

Everyone wants to forget that season. Still, that wasn't the worst playoff season since the Wild Card expanded.

The 1993 playoffs were atrocious, with an average margin of 18.2 points and just two games decided by a touchdown or less. The season also ended in one of the worst Super Bowl blowouts of all time as the Cowboys destroyed the Bills 52-17 to kick off their run of three titles in four years.

Already, this year has been much better than either of those and it still has a chance to be one of the all-time great postseasons with a memorable Super Bowl.

It has been nine years since we witnessed a Super Bowl decided by more than 14 points. Let's all hope, no matter who you root for on Sunday, both teams keep it close.