UFC 143: Bold Predictions for Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit

With Georges St. Pierre on the sidelines following a knee injury in training, the next two best fighters in the division, Carlos Condit and Nick Diaz, are scheduled to fight for five rounds this Saturday night. The winner will take home the interim UFC welterweight title and set the stage for a title unification bout with GSP once he is healed.

With two fighters of such a high caliber, it is no surprise that both of their respective camps are confident of a victory. Both men are deserving of this chance, and both love to go to war.

For Carlos Condit, it is the culmination of years of hard work and discipline. He could have done many other things with his life, but he chose fighting, and it is clear he loves what he does.

For Nick Diaz, this seems to be a long overdue affirmation of his skill and determination. He, too, loves to fight, but for him it seems to be less of a choice and more of a need.

So, who has the advantages, and in what areas? Herein lies my somewhat bold predictions.

Striking: Diaz

This is something of a mixed bag. I see Condit being the more well-rounded striker, mixing punches with elbows, kicks and knees, whereas Diaz is the better boxer simply because he keeps his eyes open and his fists flying.

In the sport of mixed martial arts, the man with the most tools usually wins, but Diaz has proven that his style of boxing and his seeming limitless cardio enable him to overwhelm his opponents on the feet, even if they are using punches and kicks.

While Condit is a very good striker in all areas, Diaz seems to hold the advantage in the standup once he gets into his groove. In his last fight against BJ Penn, he found that groove in the second round.

Against Condit, he needs to find it fast, because he may be the man to land more punches, but Condit will be the man that can do the most damage with fewer blows, as seen when he starched Dan Hardy with a beautiful counter left.

Still, I predict Diaz will win the striking exchanges.

Grappling: Even

This is where things get interesting.

Most think that Diaz is the far superior fighter on the mat simply because of his trainer and camp—and because they have seen more of his submission wins than they have Condit.

But, on paper, Condit has submitted more opponents than Diaz. Condit has submitted 13 opponents, Diaz has submitted eight.

However, grappling in mixed martial arts is not just about Jiu-Jitsu; it’s also about wrestling.

In his first stint with the UFC, Diaz had an awful time contending with the top game of good wrestlers, who were able to take him down and keep him there, grinding out decisions and frustrating Diaz to no end. Since his departure from the UFC, Diaz never really fought any wrestlers, a point his detractors are quick to point out.

While Condit may not be the better jiu-jitsu practitioner, he is probably the better wrestler, and his submission game was good enough to keep him from being tapped out by Diaz training partner Jake Shields, a man that most consider to be the best submission artist in Cesar Gracie’s camp.

This is one area that I predict will end up a stalemate. Both men will enjoy moments of success, but not so much as to lead to victory.

Cardio: Diaz

This is a relatively easy call for Nick Diaz.

Say what you will about his recreational lifestyle choices, the man is quite simply the best-conditioned athlete in combative sports, bar none. No one else competes in triathlon events in their spare time, and the results have been nothing short of shocking.

Diaz can fight the fifth round as if it were the first, and that could very well be his greatest advantage. As Frank Shamrock has said in the past, “conditioning is your best submission hold.”

Diaz has the kind of conditioning needed to grapple hard and fast or to unleash round-long punch flurries, over and over again.

I predict that Diaz will be the much more conditioned fighter, especially in the late rounds.

Speed: Condit

Nick Diaz may possess many great attributes when it comes to fighting, but speed is not one of them.

Granted, Condit is not a fighter that has the kind of speed that makes one think of Roy Jones Jr. or Floyd Mayweather Jr., but he doesn’t have to; he just has to be faster than Diaz, which he is.

Speed has often been an important and sadly overlooked quality in the world of mixed martial arts, and that shouldn’t be. Speed kills, and if there is anything that “The Natural Born Killer” can bring to the table to make his night easier, it’s beating Diaz to the punch or beating him in the transitions.

As he is the faster fighter, he should be able to do both, allowing him to score on the feet and then move away or snatch up Diaz's legs for a takedown.

Power: Condit

Once again, the advantage goes to Condit.

Nick Diaz is no weakling by any stretch of the imagination. But when it comes to punching power or core strength, he cannot match Condit.

Normally, power alone will lose to technique, but when coupled with superior speed it spells a serious problem for Diaz, who has been well served in the past by simply putting stronger opponents on the defensive with his high volume punching style.

Should Condit possess the speed necessary to beat Diaz to the punch, the power he wields could end up leaving Diaz out cold on the mat.

Chin: Condit

This may be an oversimplification, but Condit has never been knocked out; Diaz has.

Both men possess sturdy chins, but Diaz has taken far more punishment than necessary, due to his style. He’s been dropped by more than a few fighters, and even though he’s come back to win, the song remains the same.

If you can sit on your punches and crack Diaz, he just might go down. The last person to hurt and drop Diaz was Paul Daley, and Condit has much better technique.

Of course, the chin of Condit is not apt to be tested in the same manner as the beard of Diaz. Diaz's style of boxing is not based on one punch knockout power, but punches in bunches. Condit is the cannon, Diaz the machine gun.

Diaz would do well to avoid those shots if at all possible.

The Intangibles: Condit

Contrary to popular belief, Diaz has been knocked out before, against Jeremy Jackson early in their careers. Jackson hurt him with a shot and then swarmed all over him with fast, hard punches, never giving him a chance to recover.

Many may say that was a long time ago, but, since then, the style Diaz has developed still has the same fundamental holes, namely no head movement or defense to speak of.

Being a tough son of a gun is exciting, but one can only sit at the buffet table of abuse for so long on a given night. Diaz delights in wars, so much so that he throws caution to the wind, leaving his chin exposed as to dare his opponent to open fire.

Considering the advantages Condit has, this could be the time we see Diaz get flattened, and, if so, Condit will not allow him to simply get back up like others have done in the past.

Final Prediction: Diaz

With Condit possessing so much, especially speed and power, if he were fighting anyone else (save GSP), I would not hesitate to predict a victory for him.

But there are two things above all that I believe will determine the outcome: conditioning and experience in prolonged, bloody dog fights. And there the advantage goes to Diaz.

In an excellent fight, full of back-and-forth action, I predict that Condit will begin to tire early in the fourth round. He will hang tough, but a bloodied and bruised Diaz will still be there, relentless in his attack, either scoring a TKO victory or a guillotine submission finish when a desperate Condit shoots in for a takedown.