Super Bowl Predictions 2012: 3 Reasons Patriots Won't Cover

The New England Patriots are only favored by 3.5 points, but they still won't cover. So, I must be saying that the Pats will lose, right?

No. I'm very confident in my prediction that they'll win, but the margin of victory will be as small as Chad Ochocinco's impact on the Patriots' success in 2012.

There are three reasons I see the New York Giants giving the Patriots the fight of their life:

Previous Matchup

Usually, I don't put all that much stock in previous matchups, but this one I do. The Patriots were becoming the team they finished the season as. That wasn't the team the Buffalo Bills beat earlier in the year. New England hasn't lost a game since that Week 9 matchup.

New England was favored by nine points and lost at home to the Giants. That was no fluke or aberration, it was a sign that the Giants and Tom Coughlin have a great idea of how to contain the Patriots and Tom Brady.

Brady had a big game in passing yardage with 342, but he threw two interceptions and the Giants sacked him twice.

The Giants can get pressure and that will prevent the Pats from getting into one of those unstoppable offensive rhythms that create blowouts or high-scoring victories.

Home-Field Advantage?

I know the game is in Indianapolis, but that is Peyton Manning's town and building. Expect many of the local fans to show Eli and the Giants some brotherly love, especially considering they genuinely hate the Pats anyway.

I expect the game to feel a little less hostile than a road game against the Colts for New England. They should be preparing as if this is a road playoff game.

New England failed to cover 3-of-7 times on the road in the regular season. It has been a steady back-and-forth trend through the season, in regards to covering the spread on the road.

They covered on the road at Miami, lost at Buffalo, covered at Oakland and lost at Pittsburgh. If you follow that trend through the regular season up to now, the Patriots are due to miss covering the spread in the Super Bowl.

History

The Patriots never cover in the Super Bowl. The fact that they've been there enough to have a trend to call upon is staggering, but in all of the Patriots' visits to the big game in Brady's career, they've never covered.

In Brady's first appearance they were 14-point underdogs against the Rams and, of course, won the whole ball of wax.

The three that would come after that one went as follows:

Favored by seven in 2004 over the Panthers, won 32-29.

Favored by seven in 2005 over the Eagles, won 24-21.

Favored by 13.5 in 2008 over the Giants, lost 17-14.

Don't ask me what it is that makes the Patriots fall short of Vegas' expectations, but, in gambling, it doesn't matter. As you can see, the Patriots have broke many hearts and wallets of bettors who took them to cover.

I certainly wouldn't allow myself to join the crowd in 2012.