RBS Six Nations 2012: Rating Each Nation's Chances

It seems like an eternity has passed since October in Auckland, when the world tuned in to witness an All Blacks side almost succumb to stage fright. A spirited Les Blues side was two points away from breaking a collective nation's hearts and transporting the Webb Ellis trophy back to the Northern Hemisphere.

A lot of things have changed for the six European nations in that short period of time. The culmination of these factors is the predominant reason why this year's RBS Six Nations championship is so difficult to predict.

Three new coaches will be plying their trade and flexing their mental muscle in an attempt to out-think, out-maneuver and ultimately secure their jobs for the foreseeable future. The remaining three have all been here before, bare the battle scars as testament and will be hoping their experience of past wars will be enough to see them guide their team to a top-spot finish come St Patrick's Day.

As always with the Six Nations, the fixture list will have a huge part to play. Home advantage is crucial, partisan crowd noise will be deafening and it may well come down to a monumental last game day fixture list to decide which nation's trophy buffer will be busiest for the next twelve months.

France, Ireland, Wales or a surprise winner? Let's have a look into the crystal ball........

Champions Elect: France

Home to: Italy, Ireland, England

Away to: Scotland, Wales

Key Player: Thierry Dusautoir

What to Expect: If you've watched the French national side at all for the last twenty years, then you'll know that this question is one of the main reasons why you've been watching them for the last twenty years! You just never know what you are going to get. Mercurial and entertaining one week, dysfunctional and inept the next.

Their World Cup campaign can certainly be classified as a disaster in terms of consistency and PR. With the departure of the baffling Marc Lievremont behind them, France may finally have the correct coach in Philippe Saint Andre to put in place a system that fully compliments the plethora of talent both up front and in their back line.

In their captain, Dusautoir, they have the 2011 IRB International Player of the Year as part of a formidable pack including Lionel Nallet, Julien Bonnaire, Imanol Harinordoquy and William Servat.

They say forwards win games and backs decide by how much. With a back line of Medard, Clerc, Rougerie, Fofana and Malzieu, France have the potential to tear any of the other five teams apart with their running game. With Trinh-Duc controlling at fly half alongside Biarritz's scrum half Dimitri Yachvili, the spine of this French side is rock solid from top to bottom.

The crucial fixture of this championship will come when Ireland visit the Stade De France. Historically the Irish have struggled against the French in Paris, and I think the winner of this game will be the side that are crowned champions. As always, there are tight margins in the Six Nations, but the French should have enough to win it this time around.

Close Second: Ireland

Home to: Wales, Italy, Scotland

Away to: France, England

Key Player: Johnny Sexton

What to Expect: Ireland enter the Six Nations on the back of a disappointing and unfulfilling World Cup in 2011. With a momentous 15-6 win over Australia, they won their group, but their hard work and semifinal ambitions were dealt a knockout blow by an inspired Welsh side.

Away to France this time around and without the talismanic Brian O'Driscoll for the entirety of the championship, they will need to dig deeper than ever before.

As Declan Kidney prepares his troops for their fourth Six Nations championship under his leadership, the old adage, ''If you always do what you always did you'll always get what you always got,'' must be resonating somewhere in the back of his mind. If he wants to reign supreme come March 17th, he must devise a system that maximises the abilities of Ireland's golden generation.

Ireland's starting 15 in their opener against Wales contains seven members of a Leinster side that are currently setting the standard for how Heineken Cup rugby should be played. Kidney must find a way to emulate the brutal and exciting way that Leinster perform and translate it to the international game. 

If Ireland are to kick themselves into dominant field position, then the form of Johnny Sexton, earning his 25th cap at the Aviva on Saturday, is paramount. Should he fail to deliver, the ever-reliable Ronan O'Gara will deputise to provide an ample but somewhat less expansive cover.

The centre pairing of Earls and D'Arcy is questionable, and Sean O'Brien and Jamie Heaslip must deliver crash ball off the fringes. The inclusion of Donnacha O'Callaghan reeks of loyalty to the Munster native when the more dynamic and explosive option would have been the in-form Donnacha Ryan.

When it comes down to it, Ireland have the players and the experience of winning in big games, both domestically and internationally. Will they have the conviction to go to Paris and win in what will be the tournament decider? Unfortunately I think not. The Triple Crown may be the only piece of silverware heading to Dublin this year. 

Valiant Third: Wales

Home to: Scotland, Italy, France

Away to: Ireland, England

Key Player: Sam Warburton

What to Expect: Wales's injury problems are mounting ahead of their Six Nations opener in Dublin. They face the prospect of missing seven players who started last October's World Cup quarterfinal against Ireland. The Valley men are looking to build upon their World Cup semifinal defeat to France, but their alarming list of casualties appears to have scuppered any growing momentum.

The beauty of the Welsh performances in New Zealand last year was their ability to find the perfect balance between experience and youth. For example, the combination of George North on one wing and the battle-hardened Shane Williams on the other paid dividends.

Unfortunately, Williams' retirement coupled with the injuries of Matthew Ress, Alun Wyn Jones and Gethin Jenkins may leave Wales too reliant upon inexperience. Question marks also hang over the heads of Rhys Priestland and Jamie Roberts as both have failed to partake in training this week.

Given the injury crisis, Wales can ill afford to be squander-some in the kicking department. Without Priestland, Wales lack a go-to backup. James Hook looks a shadow of his former self, and Steven Jones' name evokes a man who was afraid to have a drop at goal in the dying stages of the World Cup semifinal.

With too many injuries to overcome and an incredibly tough opener away to Ireland on Sunday, I cannot see this Welsh side doing enough to finish any better than third. 

Honourable Mention: England

Home to: Wales, Ireland

Away to: Scotland, Italy, France

Key Player: Ben Youngs

What to Expect: Honestly, I really don't know what to expect from Stuart Lancaster's men. Given the circumstances, anything beyond two wins will be a bonus. Considering that their two most winnable games are away to Scotland and Italy, this Six Nations campaign has the potential to be an utter disaster in terms of performance and results.

England's match day 22-man squad contains eight uncapped players and a gaping hole that was previously filled by experience. In games past, when the pressure mounted and players underperformed, there was always the guile to grind out a result. Lancaster's philosophy seems to be veering away from that dependence and quite rightly so.

England need to build a team on capabilities rather than reputations. This is an ideal opportunity to bring together a new coach, back room staff and players with a singular vision of where English rugby needs to be come the 2015 World Cup.

The three guaranteed first-time starters of Owen Farrell, Phil Dowson and Brad Barritt usher in Lancaster's tenure. Their hunger and drive, in conjunction with some old heads, may well be the telling factor in the final table outcome.

England's pack will be competitive, but the need for Ben Youngs to take control of the game and feed the back line cannot be underestimated. If this doesn't happen, England may capitulate, and it could get ugly considering the level of opposition they'll encounter.

If England can secure the Calcutta Cup at Murrayfield while building a solid foundation within the team, their trip to the Stadio Olimpico to play Italy may not seem as daunting as first imagined. They can't afford to finish any worse than fourth, but even that may be a best-case scenario.

Floundering Fifth: Italy

Home to: England, Scotland

Away to: France, Ireland, Wales

Key Player: Sergio Parisse

What to Expect: A new age is dawning for Italian rugby, but it seems the bookmakers aren't quite buying into it just yet. Odds of four-to-nine say that Italy will be holding the wooden spoon until we do it all again in 2013, but I personally don't subscribe to this notion.

Italy as a rugby nation is developing at warp speed. Interest in the game is on the rise and fan numbers are increasing, which is reflected in the Azzuri's choice of venue for this year: the 70,000-seat Stadio Olimpico in Rome.

As always with Italy, they will rely heavily on the of the ruggedness of their pack, led by the incomparable Sergio Parrisse. In last year's Six Nations, the pack was able to lay the foundation for a fantastic win over the French at home. They will be targeting two games in particular with a view to ending the championship with at least a couple in the W column.

Former Perpignan coach Jacques Brunel takes the reins in place of Nick Mallet and will hope to use this set of five games to take this Italian side to the next level and close the gap between themselves and Scotland.

Italy need to find a way to be competitive over the course of 80 minutes. Too often there have been times where they've put the shoulder to the wheel for 60, only to allow the gaps appear and the game run away from them.

With a move from the Stadio Flaminio to the Stadio Olimpico, it's never been a better time to be involved in Italian rugby. The experience of Ghiraldini, Bergamasco, Lo Cicero, Botolami and Canale will be pivotal if Italy are to avoid the type of penalty strewn games that have plagued them in previous years.

It will be emotional in Rome come Saturday 11th. They need to harbor that energy and make their home advantage count if they are to avoid bottom.

I can see an upset on the cards. Contrary to popular belief, I'm going with a fifth place finish for the Italians.   

Wooden Spoon: Scotland

Home to: England, France

Away to: Wales, Ireland, Italy

Key Player: Dan Parks

What to Expect: At the first game against England, expect a fired-up Scottish team in front of a fervent Murrayfield crowd. If this game was at Twickenham, I would resign them to a loss already. At Murrayfield, there is always a chance.

There's also never been a better time to face an untested England side, but you have to question whether Scotland have the capacity to cause any sort of upset in this year's competition.

Take a look at last year's Six Nations table and you'll see one win, five defeats, six tries and two points for Scotland. Look at the team below them and the figures show an identical record. Only a greater points differential separated Italy from Scotland, and there are not a lot of positives to suggest that Scotland have progressed beyond Italy to give them an edge on the Azzuri.

If Scotland are to win games this year, they need to show an ability to create try scoring opportunities from a variety of field positions. In last year's Six Nations they averaged slightly over one try per game, in comparison to England, who notched thirteen in total.

The loss of Chris Patterson to retirement is a blow, as reliability in the kicking department was the reason for the vast majority of points scored by a side who managed only four tries in the entirety of the last World Cup.

Dan Parks is listed above as their key player, although Richie Gray may be their most influential, Parks' performances will decide the faith of the Scots this year. The 33-year-old has been called back into the starting 15 in place of an injured Ruaridh Jackson.

If the fly half cannot control the game from behind the scrum and convert the kicking opportunities that come his way, I can't see where Scotland are going to amass their points from.

With England up first on Saturday, Scotland have the chance to set the tone for the entire championship. Fail at the first hurdle, and each game gets progressively more difficult. Away games to Wales and Ireland will not be fruitful, and the closing tie away to Italy has war written all over it.

I think the fixture list will be too influential. I'll go out on a limb and predict a wooden spoon finish for Scotland.