Super Bowl Odds 2012: Where Is the Smart Money Going?

In one of the most hyped games in Super Bowl history, the New England Patriots are favored over the New York Giants by three points.

The action on the Giants has heated up over the past week.  The line has dropped from 3.5 and could even get down to 2.5 before kickoff.

In recent years, the NFC has been the better conference to bet on. AFC teams have covered the spread just twice in the past nine Super Bowls, and the NFC is 4-0 in the last four games against the points (3-1 straight up).

Those are not the only reasons why the Giants are a better bet; here are the top six.

6. Rob Gronkowski's Injury

Rob Gronkowski set the single-season records for most touchdowns and receiving yards by a tight end and has been a vital part of the Patriots' offense.

Disaster struck for New England in the AFC Championship Game against the Ravens when the All-Pro suffered a high ankle sprain.

The Pats went to their tight ends more than any other team in the league, and Gronkowski, along with Aaron Hernandez, shattered records set by previous tight-end tandems.

In addition, eight of Tom Brady's 12 interceptions during the regular season were on plays in which one of the two tight ends was on the sideline.

If Gronkowski is not fully healthy, the Giants' physical defense will be more aggressive than usual with him. 

If he is unable to play, or if he plays and aggravates his ankle during the game, the Patriots will be fighting an uphill battle without their biggest target.

5. Patriots Have Had an Easy Schedule

Making it to the Super Bowl is a wonderful accomplishment for New England, but the team must consider itself a little lucky to have won the AFC while only beating one team with a winning record.

The Patriots played 17 straight games against teams that would finish at .500 or worse before meeting the Baltimore Ravens in the conference championship.

The Pats struggled against the Ravens and escaped after Billy Cundiff botched an easy field goal that would have sent the game into overtime.

New England has been favored with a soft schedule and may be caught off guard on Sunday, as the Giants are anything but soft.

4. Giants Won Earlier in the Season

In Week 9 of this season, Eli Manning once again led a game-winning drive to defeat the Patriots in dramatic fashion.

Another similarity between the regular-season matchup and the 2007 Super Bowl is the Giants' defense again held the New England offense way under its average. The Pats averaged just over 32 points a game this season, but only put up 20 against New York.

The Giants' offense did not look particularly sharp against a porous Patriots defense until late in the game, but Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks were out injured for the G-Men.

This time around, Bradshaw and Nicks will be healthy and ready to go for the Super Bowl, whereas the Patriots now have injury concerns among their offensive unit.

3. Eli Manning and the Giants' Receivers

Tom Brady and the Patriots' passing attack have received a lot of attention over the course of the season, but Eli Manning and the Giants' receivers have been just as productive in the postseason.

Brady has a 105.8 quarterback rating and is averaging 298.5 yards in two games. In comparison, Manning has a QBR of 103.1 and is putting up 287.3 yards across three games. 

While the competition between the two quarterbacks is an even contest, the matchup between the Giants' receivers and the Patriots' defensive backs is lopsided. 

Hakeem Nicks has unique physical gifts that have made him one of the league's better receivers, and Victor Cruz put up All-Pro numbers in his breakout season.

The Pats may be able to limit those two players by throwing Devin McCourty and some double-teams at them, but New England is extremely thin when having to play in nickle and dime packages. If Julian Edelman is forced to match up with Mario Manningham, Sunday might be a long day for the Patriots' secondary.

2. Giants D-Line Has Brady's Number

In the 2007 Super Bowl, the Giants' defensive line proved to be the Kryptonite to a Patriots offense that many thought was invincible.

Both then and now, Tom Brady was one of the best quarterbacks in football. He destroys teams that sit back in coverage and do not pressure him, and eats up defenses that blitz him and leave receivers in single coverage. The only way to beat him is to create pressure without blitzing.

In 2007, the Giants were the best in the league at creating pressure without blitzing. The team had dominant defensive ends in Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora, and the versatile Justin Tuck effectively created pressure from a tackle or an end spot.

Strahan retired after winning his first championship, but the Giants' defensive line is just as beastly in 2011 with the rise of Jason Pierre-Paul.

Pierre-Paul is having an All-Pro season and is a legitimate candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. He is one of the most freakish athletes at the position and causes problems for every offense he faces.

In the past, New York has been able to limit the Patriots' offense because of its fearsome pass-rush. On Sunday, the G-Men's front four will be the deciding factor in the 2012 Super Bowl.

1. Giants Are the Hottest Team in the NFL

The New York Giants have played in five straight elimination games dating back to Week 16.

The G-Men played two must-win games against the Jets and Cowboys to reach the playoffs and have been on a roll ever since.

New York unleashed one of the more convincing beat-downs in recent playoff history at home against Atlanta in the Wild Card Round, which set up a matchup with top-seeded Green Bay.

The Giants' defense abused the Packers' skill-position players and forced several costly drops and fumbles, while Eli Manning and the offense handled a subpar Green Bay defense.

In the NFC championship, the Giants faced another difficult matchup, but beat the 49ers in an overtime bloodbath. 

New York defeated the top-two seeds in their conference on the road to get to the Super Bowl. All the momentum is on the Giants' side, and it will carry them to their second Lombardi Trophy in five seasons.