Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. vs. Marco Antonio Rubio: 10 Things You Need to Know

The HBO doubleheader this weekend isn't a huge fight, but it's the biggest so far this year. The main event, Chavez Jr. vs. Rubio, has the makings for a good one, too. These two guys are tough, with fairly good power, and each tends to fight at a high pace with a physical style. Plus, though there are still some questions about Chavez's chin, it hasn't let him down yet, and Rubio has exhibited a solid chin throughout his career. These are the makings for a brawl, and with apologies to the purists, brawls are why we watch boxing. 

So get ready. These are the 10 storylines for you to follow leading up to Saturday's fight.

Record and Level of Competition

You're probably already at least a little familiar with Chavez Jr.'s story. This will refresh your memory: Though Jr doesn't deserve the belt around his waist, and his 44-0-1 (31) is made up mostly of tomato cans and cream puffs, he has fought some tough opposition of late, and has passed those tests.

Sebastian Zbik isn't a slouch, and neither was the now-retired John Duddy. In fact, he has competed against a fairly high level of opposition since beating Anthony Shuler in 2007. Well, he'd better grit his teeth, because Rubio is better than any of them except maybe Zbik.

Now on to Rubio. He's fought an overall lower level of opposition than J.C Jr, but no one resents him for it because he doesn't headline at the Alamodome (well, apart from this weekend) or have a green belt. He's lost to most of the best that he's faced. His best win came against David Lemieux this past April, when he wore out the then-undefeated power puncher.

He has exhibited good power throughout his career, posting a 53-5 (46) record. Though he has lost by stoppage three times, the only truly embarrassing loss probably came in 2004 against Kofi Jantuah, when he was one-punch cold cocked on the undercard of Hopkins-De la Hoya. Outside of that, he's usually pretty durable. 

Rubio Is Worried

Rubio has said in the past that he needs to knock Jr out in order to win, and this week tried a little gamesmanship in rejecting the referee initially assigned to their fight. The reason he's insecure has to do with the men in the picture to the left.

Being the son of J.C. Superstar has made Jr a superstar in his own right, and he draws well in San Antonio. Furthermore, Bob Arum might be the most powerful promoter in boxing at the moment. Chavez's having crowd support and a string puller behind him makes for a dangerous situation for Rubio, and he has reason to be concerned. 

Age and Physical Attributes

Rubio is 31 years old, 5'10" and started his career at welterweight. As stated earlier, he has respectable power, though his numbers are probably a little bit empty. His reach is 70 inches, and he's not really capable of outboxing Jr over 12 rounds, his feet and hand speed being below average. He's right handed, and his style is pretty straight forward, plodding without a lot of upper body movement, relying on his gloves to catch the leather coming at him. 

Chavez Jr is 25, 6'1". Though he started his career at super featherweight, that was when he was a 17-year-old, and he's now huge for a middleweight, often rehydrating after weigh-in by 15 or 20 pounds. He has a long jab, and sees himself as an offensive fighter. His style has improved since his decision to start working with Freddie Roach, but his defense is still not very good. As with Rubio, he's not very fast of either hands or feet, but he makes up for it with a fairly high-paced style and a fair amount of movement.

Crowd Support

Chavez is a cash cow. Specifically, he's Bob Arum's cash cow. In fact, the numbers he draws, live and on TV are part of the reason he's facing Rubio in this fight and now Sergio Martinez, the Ring Magazine middleweight champion.

This will be his third fight at the Alamodome, and his second main event there (he fought there once on a Manny Pacquiao under card). He drew 8,172 fans there in June of 2010 against John Duddy. Those aren't overwhelming numbers, but the crowd this week is likely to be larger, and almost everyone there will be rooting for J.C. Jr. Rubio will be fighting the crowd in that ring in Texas.

Sergio Martinez Is Next

At least, allegedly. The World Boxing Council (or We Be Corrupt, which I prefer) ordered Chavez Jr to fight Martinez following his victory over Manfredo, in which he defended a WBC belt that had been more or less stripped from Martinez. What they did in fact was "elevate" him to "Diamond" status, but it amounted to stripping him for the crime of not being a Chavez.

And man, did that piss him off. Martinez has spouted off more than once, calling Jr and Pacquiao Bob Arum's puppets. He also said that Chavez lacks both courage and dignity. If I were Bob Arum and didn't want J.C. Jr to face Martinez before all this stuff went down, I would definitely not want to match them up now. 

If Rubio wins, there are no promises that he will be facing Martinez for the real championship, but it would seem like a smart move for the champ. Low risk/medium reward is what fight managers are usually willing to take. 

Jose Sulaiman Loves Himself Some J.C. Jr

Julio Cesar Chavez is a Mexican deity. Jose Sulaiman is the President-for-Life of possibly the most corrupt of all of the sanctioning bodies, the Mexico based WBC. Sulaiman (or Slime-man) has openly stated that he favors Chavez Jr not just in this match but overall, saying that he regards Jr as his grandson.

In fact, that statement came in response to questions about what made Jr deserving of a title shot. Whether Slime-man's favoritism has ramifications for the bout on Saturday remains to be seen, but it's something to keep an eye on, and you can bet it will be brought up should the fight end controversially.  

Chavez Jr Is Better Than We Think

J.C. Jr has been much-maligned throughout his career by most fans, especially those who aren't rooting for the spirit of their retired hero, one J.C. Superstar. The common conception is that he's been fed garbage opponents with a silver spoon throughout his eight-year career, and he doesn't deserve much of what he has, either in the way of adulation or in title belts. But, if we were to look at his career in a vacuum, it would appear much different from the conventional point of view.

Here are the facts: he had no amateur career and spent about three years fighting stiffs. As stated earlier, his level of opposition hasn't been bad over the past four or five years, and if we ignore the belt that he owns, we would probably have to admit that someone with his resume is a deserving contender. Finally, he's begun to impress, at least a little bit, over the past two years, and his ceiling is higher than we originally thought.

Bottom line, if he wins impressively against Rubio, it will certainly silence some doubters. No, he's not his dad. But few fighters ever will be, and that's why his dad is special.  

Experience Favors Rubio

Though, as stated earlier, Rubio has fought a mixed bag of competition over the past few years while Chavez Jr has fought mostly middle of the road fringe contenders, Rubio clearly has more world-class experience. Granted, that's mostly losing experience, but it still makes a difference.

He's fought guys like Kassim Ouma (when he was good) and Kelly Pavlik (when he was good), and acquitted himself fairly well. He knows how to stand in and take his licks even in a losing effort. In fact, that ability is what led to his win over David Lemieux. This weekend could prove Jr's mettle. If he gets tested early, will he cave? If he has early success will he punch himself out? We'll see Saturday.

Wear and Tear Could Significantly Effect This Fight

Rubio is older, smaller and has taken more punishment throughout his career. While he's durable, a chin can get soft overnight, especially if it's taken a lot of abuse in the past. Just look at Alfredo Angulo against James Kirland for a recent example. Angulo had only had 21 fights, and had never shown a soft chin, but had taken big punches in almost all of his bouts, and suddenly there he was on the canvas against Kirkland.

It's true, J.C. Jr has been hit a lot throughout his career, but it's more than fair to say that Rubio has sustained more pain. After all, Jr's never been caved in by Pavlik. If Jr is beating Rubio like a drum, will he suddenly drop?

If Not, Martinez Next Winner Could Get Canelo

Not trusting anything the WBC or Slime-man says is something of a personal hobby. Furthermore, with the aforementioned Bob Arum at the helm of Chavez Jr's career, it seems very unlikely that he will challenge Martinez for the rightful championship even if he does beat Rubio. Finally, in terms of career development, it would be a stupid move for J.C. Jr anyway. He's not ready (and may never be) to fight a guy like Martinez, even if Jr wants to.

Saul Alvarez, on the other hand, is a better option, another young, undefeated Mexican star, Canelo is also on that prospect/contender cusp along with Chavez Jr. The two could meet in a big money fight that would further legitimize the winner's case to face Martinez, and might actually do something to prepare him for challenging the middleweight champion.

For Rubio, it's a lot more straightforward. If he manages to upset Chavez Jr, he will likely have his pick of either Martinez or Canelo, but smart money goes to an Alvarez versus Rubio matchup. A Rubio win gives him a second signature win, and likely enhances his name value enough to make the risk/reward ratio make sense for either the champ or the prospect.