Tottenham Hotspur: Predicting Spurs' End-of-the-Season EPL Finish

The end of the EPL season is still 16 games away, but I thought that now would be an interesting time to start predicting where Tottenham will finish at the end of the season.

At the start of the season, the consensus was that a top-four finish in the EPL would mean a successful season for Tottenham, regardless of the team's performances in the League Cup, FA Cup or Europa League.

At present, Tottenham sit third with 46 points, 10 whole points clear of fifth-place Arsenal. Let's go through Tottenham's schedule to predict the team's point total at the end of the season.

Date	Team	Home/Away	Prediction	Point Total
31 January 2012	Wigan Athletic	H	Win	49
4 February 2012	Liverpool	A	Loss	49
11 February 2012	Newcastle United	H	Draw	50
25 February 2012	Arsenal	A	Loss	50
3 March 2012	Manchester United	H	Draw	51
10 March 2012	Everton	A	Draw	52
17 March 2012	Stoke City	H	Win	55
24 March 2012	Chelsea	A	Loss	55
31 March 2012	Swansea City	H	Win	58
7 April 2012	Sunderland	A	Win	61
9 April 2012	Norwich City	H	Win	64
14 April 2012	Bolton Wanderers	A	Win	67
21 April 2012	Queens Park Rangers	A	Draw	68
28 April 2012	Blackburn Rovers	H	Win	71
5 May 2012	Aston Villa	A	Draw	72
13 May 2012	Fulham	H	Win	75

I consider this to be a fairly moderate prediction of Tottenham's results until the end of the season.

I do not believe that Tottenham will lose every top-of-the-table clash from now until the end of the season, but I believe that predicting harsh results for those games acts as a counter-balance for the possibility that Tottenham may drop points against some of the weaker teams of the EPL.

Given that Tottenham have recorded 14 wins, four draws and four losses in their first 22 EPL games, I believe that expecting a record of 8-5-3 over the next 16 is fair, if not a tad harsh.

Now for the good stuff. 

In the past five seasons, here are the number of points it has taken for a team to finish in the top four of the EPL:

Year	Points Required to Finish Above Fifth
2010-11	63
2009-10	68
2008-09	64
2007-08	66
2006-07	61

Given this information, it seems pretty safe to assume that Tottenham will be playing in the Champions League next season.

What's more is, we should finish about 10 to 11 points clear of fifth place, since the average over the last five years for fifth place has been 64.4 points.

What do you think? Is it pretty safe to assume that a spot in the Champions League is secure for Tottenham next season, or is it too soon to start celebrating? 

Make your opinion known in the comments section below.