San Antonio Spurs: Final Stat Projections for All Key Players

The 2011-2012 NBA season is still young, but with the San Antonio Spurs almost a third of the way through it, fans are getting a better sense of the roster. Our beloved stat lines are actually starting to mean something.

Of course, statistics don't mean everything, but they're an inescapable (and objective) measure of a player's performance. As a rule, San Antonio's individual output is less than what premium players produce on other teams.

This is increasingly becoming an ensemble of a roster where players must share minutes and shots more than they might on other squads. Unless you're a fantasy owner for whom numbers alone matter, it's important to put these statistics in perspective. Tony Parker could easily score 20 points a game if he got a few extra minutes each night.

With that little caveat in mind, here are projections for each player's production by season's end.

Tony Parker

Current line: 17.7 ppg, 7.8 apg, 3 rpg, 1 spg

Projected line: 19.2 ppg, 8.3 apg, 3.4 rpg, 1.3 spg

San Antonio's season will go as Tony Parker goes, and everyone knows it. Since Ginobili's injury, Parker has unquestionably been the centerpiece of a team attempting to survive without its best player.

In his last 10 games, Parker has been putting up over 20 points and eight assists a game, numbers that rival his exceptional 2008-2009 campaign in which he finished with 22 and 6.9 per contest. He appears more adept than ever at reconciling his unique scoring ability with the need to get his teammates involved. Parker's player efficiency rating is right at 21, which is eighth among point guards and fifth among those playing over 30 minutes a game.

Few would question Parker's capability, but his consistency has been justifiably subject to criticism. Even with his recent success, some will no doubt expect Tony to fade as the postseason approaches.

With Manu sidelined until March or April, Parker becomes the lone playmaker for a team that otherwise likes to keep the ball in Ginobili's hands at crucial moments. Even when Ginobili does return, Parker will be in rhythm and as confident as he's been in years. 

Plus, if Parker disappears this season, Pop may never forgive him. You better expect Tony to continue playing like an All-Star.

Manu Ginobili

"Current" line: 17.4 ppg, 3 apg, 3.8 rpg, 1.2 spg

Projected line: 18.2 ppg, 4.2 apg, 4.1 rpg, 1.6 spg

Ginobili's stat line never looks as impressive as it really is. 

Consider this: In Ginobili's five games this season, his player efficiency rating of 35.17 is off the charts when compared with other shooting guards, including Kobe Bryant at 24.68. Obviously, that's a tiny sample size, and Manu will come down to earth when he gets back on the court.

Nevertheless, he will come back fresh, and we shouldn't forget how well he shot the ball earlier this season, thanks in large part to resting during the lockout. Ginobili looked to be rediscovering his prime prior to the untimely injury.

While he'll remain more than capable of putting up 25 to 30 in a given game, you have to imagine Manu's minutes will be limited as he regains his playing form and as Popovich attempts to preserve him for the playoffs.

Don't count out the occasional big minutes for Ginobili, though. The Spurs may well find themselves in a tight playoff race if the Western Conference remains as competitive as it currently is. Manu may be relied upon to do what he has so often done.

Even if his regular-season numbers remain modest due to playing time, Manu could be set for an epic display in the playoffs.

Tim Duncan

Current line: 12.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.1 bpg

Projected line: 14.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.4 bpg

While Tim Duncan's minutes will remain under constant scrutiny, the Spurs will depend on him to score more than he would playing with a healthy Ginobili. In his last 10 games, Duncan's averaging 14 points a game along with almost 10 rebounds.

Expect Duncan's numbers to continue trending in that direction. He's scored over 20 points three times this season. That may sound pedestrian, but it's not bad when you account for his limited minutes. The point is: he's still got it. At least when he needs to.

While Duncan's player efficiency rating (19.17) ranks 16th among centers, it's ahead of several talented bigs including Nene, Joakim Noah and Andrew Bogut.

His numbers should slightly improve across the board as San Antonio finds itself amidst a competitive playoff race. Popovich likes to give his rotation some consistency in the weeks leading up to the postseason, and that could mean a strong finish for the ageless Tim Duncan.

Richard Jefferson

Current line: 10.7 ppg, 1.6 apg, 3.2 rpg, 0.7 spg

Projected line: 9.8 ppg, 1.4 apg, 2.9 rpg, 0.6 spg

If Jefferson's last 10 games are any indication of where his season is headed, his numbers could fall even lower than they are now. During that recent stretch, he's averaged a painful 7.5 points a game, shooting 33 percent.

Conventional logic might also suggest that Ginobili's eventual return will mean fewer shots for Jefferson, or perhaps that Kawhi Leonard's emergence will mean fewer minutes.

While his numbers may take a slight dip, there are a couple of reasons to believe they won't tank.

First, until Ginobili does return, Jefferson will get plenty of shots. During his tenure in San Antonio, he has been re-invented as a perimeter threat who shoots better from range than inside the line. Despite averaging over five free throws a game over his career, he's gotten to the stripe just 1.2 times a game this season. He may be streaky, but his streak couldn't get much worse than it's been lately. When those threes do fall, the points can come in bunches.

Second, Ginobili's return may mean a couple fewer shots for Jefferson, but it will also mean the rest of his shots will be much better looks. Manu instantly makes the Spurs' marksmen better with his smooth drive-and-kick ability, so RJ's shooting percentage should pick up with the open shots.

DeJuan Blair

Current line: 10.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.0 spg

Projected line: 9.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.9 spg

Blair is playing 23 minutes a game, at times looking like he deserves even more. Unfortunately, he continues to be plagued by inconsistency and is struggling to play with the same energy that so uniquely defined his game when coming into the league in 2009.

Blair should be picking up a few more rebounds each night (he averaged seven per game last season), but his minutes and shots aren't a given. San Antonio is rumored to be interested in potentially acquiring either Chris Kaman (via trade) or Kenyon Martin, who will be eligible to play in February. 

Assuming Blair isn't himself part of a trade, there's a good chance his minutes could be affected by a shakeup of the front line. Tiago Splitter's emergence won't help things.

Kawhi Leonard

Current line: 7.2 ppg, 0.8 apg, 5.1 rpg, 1.2 spg

Projected line: 8.4, 1.2 apg, 5.7 rpg, 1.3 spg

Kawhi Leonard has played almost 28 minutes a game over his last 10, and there's every reason to believe he will become even more central to the Spurs' rotation. Richard Jefferson faded down the stretch last year, and should the pattern reemerge, expect Popovich to lean on Leonard.

He already has, inserting the rookie into the starting lineup in Ginobili's absence. Leonard's shot should continue to improve, and you can easily count on him for six to eight points off of offensive rebounds and fast breaks alone. 

Leonard is also already an exceptional rebounder, ranking fifth among small forwards in rebounding rate. 

Don't expect Leonard's numbers to improve too significantly in the near future, though. He plays on a deep San Antonio team and is probably another year or two away from really developing his offensive game.

There's also a risk that Popovich will rely more on experienced players as the games start to matter more (and as Manu gets closer to returning). 

Tiago Splitter

Current line: 9.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.0 bpg

Projected line: 9.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.2 bpg

If you haven't noticed, Splitter's demonstrated significant improvement this season.

The much anticipated 2007 first-round pick only played 12 minutes a game last year (his first actual season with the team). It took Splitter some time to acclimate himself to the NBA, and veteran Antonio McDyess was still part of the Spurs' rotation.

This year, Splitter is making a name for himself, playing 21 minutes a game and slowly supplanting DeJuan Blair as San Antonio's next best hope in the paint. Over his last 10 games, Splitter is scoring 12 a game and collecting almost six rebounds. He reached double digits in six straight games and recorded a career-high 25 against the Rockets. 

Like Blair, Splitter's numbers ultimately depend on whether or not the Spurs make any personnel adjustments to their front line.

Gary Neal

Current line: 8.4 ppg, 1.2 apg, 1.5 rpg

Projected line: 9.5 ppg, 1.6 apg, 1.9 rpg

Neal averaged just under 10 points a game last season, and they should get up there again this year, too.

His shooting has been off a bit after missing training camp and recovering from an appendectomy. Things may be turning around for the young guard, though—he played his best game of the year Sunday against the Mavericks, scoring 19 and dishing seven assists in an instant classic.

With confidence, Neal can be a dangerous scorer. His quick three-point shot is difficult to guard, and Neal has made strides in developing a mid-range game that features its own Parker-like "teardrop." 

It's hard to tell if Gary Neal will ever be much more than an explosive sixth man. He certainly has the opportunity to make a case for himself while Manu sits. 

Matt Bonner

Current line: 6.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.2 bpg

Projected line: 6.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.1 bpg

Bonner averaged seven points a game last season, and 7.3 the season before that. You can expect the "Red Rocket" to do more of the same this year. 

Fans have a love/hate relationship with Bonner—for all his shortcomings (rebounding and defense), he can be a truly prolific long-range threat. With his one-of-a-kind shooting form, Bonner has hit some clutch shots for the Spurs and enables them to spread the floor on offense.

Unless he's traded, demoted or otherwise banished from the rotation any time soon, Bonner will probably continue to play 20 minutes a night and put up his usual numbers. 

Danny Green

Current line: 7.4 ppg, 1.7 apg, 3.4 rpg

Projected line: 6.2 ppg, 1.2 apg, 3.1 rpg

Danny Green was never a hot prospect, and his upside is questionable. So, of course, he's becoming yet another unlikely hero for a San Antonio team seemingly made of them.

The guard drafted in the second round out of UNC (by Cleveland) is hitting 40 percent of his threes this year and endearing himself to Gregg Popovich with tenacious defense (including almost a block per game) and a steady approach.

He will perhaps always be remembered for the utterly heartbreaking non-shot that almost put the Mavericks away this Sunday (only to be waived off after what seemed like an hour of official video review).

Despite all Green's virtues, the harsh reality is that he must compete with lots of other wing players for minutes. My head says he'll take a step back, but my heart isn't so sure.