National Signing Day 2012: Why Top Recruiting Class Means Nothing for Texas

The college football recruiting game is a complete roll of the dice.

Having a trivial ranking by a panel of “experts” to rank your recruiting class is nothing more than an educated guess on their part. So, with the news that the Texas Longhorns have fallen from the No. 1 spot to No. 3, there’s no reason to panic.  

Mack Brown, fresh off a fat contract extension, has done another sound job with his 24 commitments. Nine of them were ranked in the ESPNU 150 and 17 have at least four “stars” by ESPN’s evaluation team.

According to them, Texas will be bringing in the top running back in the country (Johnathan Gray), the second-best defensive tackle (Malcom Brown) and the seventh-best QB (Connor Brewer). All of them have four or five stars.

What exactly do you have to do per star? Is it like a helmet sticker for high school players or something? Maybe they get one for every coach that gets down on one knee and begs them to play at their school?

My point is that the whole star-rating system is debatable.

The thing about these rankings is that it’s all so trivial. ESPNU has Texas third, yet Rivals.com has them second.

Does that mean Texas, (No. 1) Alabama, (No. 2) Florida State and (No. 4) Florida are going to be the four best teams in four years, with a 'Bama-FSU title game in the 2015 season?

Of course not. Every single year there are highly skilled players that don’t pan out. It’s impossible to predict how an 18-year-old will adjust to the life of being a college kid.

There will be plenty of busts and plenty of surprises that nobody saw coming. That’s why we watch the games. You never know what exactly is going to happen on Saturday’s in the fall.

Don’t start thinking the sky has fallen, Texas fans. Getting bumped down a few pegs in an inconsequential recruiting ranking is not going to destroy your chances of winning the 2015 Fiesta Bowl.

If anything, as long as you're in the top 15, it’s all good. The future is bright for the Texas football program and that’s why the coach just got a $23m extension despite back-to-back disappointing seasons.