NASCAR: The Top 25 Drivers and Whether They'll Finish Higher or Lower in 2012

In all sports, the tides of change roll in and out. The outstanding few weather the storm and find themselves remaining consistent for an extended period of time.

Unfortunately for others, each year is a new beginning that poses problems in charting a solid course toward successful shores.

NASCAR is no different. It is perhaps even more precarious than most other professional leagues.

This list begins, statistically, where each of the Top 25 finishers placed in 2011 and surmises whether they will be better, worse or stay the same in 2012.

*This is not a "Power Ranking" list. The order of the drivers is given from 25th to first place exactly as they finished last season. The only opinion offered here is where they will finish in relation to that in 2012.

Brian Vickers

2011 Finish: 25th

Projected 2012 Finish: ???

Reason(s) for Projection: Whatever happens, Brian Vickers will not be driving the No. 83 Red Bull Toyota because Red Bull Racing has ceased to exist in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. It is impossible, at this juncture, to surmise an opinion as to where he will finish in 2012.

As it stands, he has no current ride. He may not even finish due to never starting in 2012.

Joey Logano

2011 Finish: 24th

Projected 2012 Finish: As high as 20th, perhaps better pending some good fortune.

Reason(s) for Projection: Joey Logano missed 23rd place by only four points, but 22nd by 28 points. David Ragan and Mark Martin bested him for those respective positions.

In 2012, Ragan will ride in a second-tier car with Front Row Motorsports, while Mark Martin will only compete in 25 races with Michael Waltrip Racing. Logano should be able to close in on 20th place without too much difficulty.

David Ragan

2011 Finish: 23rd

Projected 2012 Finish: Probably worse.

Reason(s) for Projection: If David Ragan could only manage 23rd place while racing for one of the top organizations in NASCAR (Roush Fenway Racing), there is little hope that he can eclipse this in 2012 with Front Row Motorsports.

Mark Martin

2011 Finish: 22nd

Projected 2012 Finish: Lower than 25th place.

Reason(s) for Projection: As stated, he will only race 25 times in 2012. That is a major handicap.

Juan Pablo Montoya

2011 Finish: 21st

Projected 2012 Finish: He can do better.

Reason(s) for Projection: 2011 was not a great year for Juan Pablo Montoya. After only two Top-5 finishes in 2011 and a mere 15 points separating 21st and 17th place, the opportunity is present to at least break into the Top 20.

Jeff Burton

2011 Finish: 20th

Projected 2012 Finish: The jury is out.

Reason(s) for Projection: Has Jeff Burton just had a few bad seasons over the past few years? Or is he a little over the hill?  It is a bit hard to tell.

Marcos Ambrose

2011 Finish: 19th

Projected 2012 Finish: 15th or better.

Reason(s) for Projection: The "Tasmanian Devil" had better numbers than most who placed 15th or worse in 2011. Marcos Ambrose should have his best year in 2012 because his skills on ovals have vastly improved. He would make a great addition as a first-time Chase participant.

Martin Truex Jr.

2011 Finish: 18th

Projected 2012 Finish: About the same.

Reason(s) for Projection: As stated in a prior article, I don't have much faith in Michael Waltrip Racing's fleet. Though Truex is a talented driver, it would be hypocritical to expect him to finish significantly better in 2012.

Paul Menard

2011 Finish: 17th

Projected 2012 Finish: In the Chase (12th or better)

Reason(s) for Projection: This is just a personal hunch. Aside from finally getting his first win in 2011, I have no real rhyme or reason as to why I feel this way. Suffice it to say, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Greg Biffle

2011 Finish: 16th

Projected 2012 Finish: Fighting for a Chase position.

Reason(s) for Projection: 2011 was pretty bad for Greg Biffle. Even though his car looked great on more than a few occasions, his team never put together a car that was strong when the checkered flag flew.

At the very least, I think it is safe to say that he will achieve more Top-10 finishes and visit Victory Lane in 2012.

A. J. Allmendinger

2011 Finish: 15th

Projected 2012 Finish: He had BETTER do better.

Reason(s) for Projection: A.J. Allmendinger is now in a top-tier outfit at Penske Racing after replacing Kurt Busch in the No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge Charger. The pressure is magnified.

Anything worse than 15th place would be an abysmal disappointment.

Kasey Kahne

2011 Finish: 14th

Projected 2012 Finish: Somewhere better than 10th place.

Reason(s) for Projection: Kasey Kahne is the trendy pick to shake up the standings in 2012. Aside from his transition to powerhouse Hendrick Motorsports, he also closed out the 2011 season in roaring fashion. Kahne has set his hook, and this fish is biting hook, line and sinker.

Clint Bowyer

2011 Finish: 13th

Projected 2012 Finish: Better than 20th, but below 13th place

Reason(s) for Projection: As a new member of Michael Waltrip Racing, Clint Bowyer's chances for improvement are diminished compared to remaining at Richard Childress Racing. We'll see if it was a good move for him.

Kyle Busch

2011 Finish: 12th

Projected 2012 Finish: He can only get better.

Reason(s) for Projection: After going into the 2011 Chase tied for first place, Kyle Busch struggled. His 12th-place finish is a bit misleading, as his own personal behavior led him to have to sit out an entire race and lose all the points that he could have gained.

Assuming that won't happen in 2012, he will finish better than his 2011 standing.

Kurt Busch

2011 Finish: 11th

Projected 2012 Finish: 11th or 12th place.

Reason(s) for Projection: After 26 races last year, Kurt Busch was comfortably in seventh place and in the Chase field, But he plummeted to 11th place by season's end. I refuse to count him out of the Chase, but it seems reasonable to predict that he will finish in about the same position by the end of 2012.

Even with this finish, he will again be marketable to a first-tier team looking for his first-class service as a driver.

Ryan Newman

2011 Finish: 10th

Projected 2012 Finish: I don't know.

Reason(s) for Projection: It's hard to say with Ryan Newman. There are bound to be a couple of new Chasers in 2012. He may find himself on the slight outside looking in of that exclusive club.

However, he could also have a stellar year and make the Chase easily. It's tough to completely doubt a guy nicknamed "The Rocket Man."

Denny Hamlin

2011 Finish: Ninth

Projected 2012 Finish: Not a Chaser.

Reason(s) for Projection: Aside from maybe Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin has to considered a weak link in the chain of 2011 Chasers. Last year he limped in and basically served as an also-ran after only two Chase races.

If not for the calamities of the Busch brothers, he would have finished last in the Chase standings. I may regret this pick come midseason, but I stand by it now.

Jeff Gordon

2011 Finish: Eighth

Projected 2012 Finish: Worse.

Reason(s) for Projection: This is not to say that "The Kid" won't make the Chase in 2012. But without his surprising three victories in 2011, he would have managed only to tie for ninth place.

Is Jeff Gordon good for another three victories in 2012? It is doubtful.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

2011 Finish: Seventh

Projected 2012 Finish: In that neighborhood.

Reason(s) for Projection: Though I still believe he he won't win (again) in 2012, the pairing of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and crew chief Steve Letarte resulted in positive strides in 2011. He will be a Chaser once more in 2012.

Jimmie Johnson

2011 Finish: Sixth

Projected 2012 Finish: Back near the top, if not the champion.

Reason(s) for Projection: I'm going to (hypothetically) quote the poet and scholar Mr. T on this one: "I pity the fool that thinks 'Superman' won't rebound from his pitiful 2011 and he will prove the man he really is!"

Haters and doubters be silenced. He will finish better than sixth in 2012.

Brad Keselowski

2011 Finish: Fifth

Projected 2012 Finish: He might miss the Chase.

Reason(s) for Projection: With a couple of new drivers projected to make the Chase, there must also be a few that don't repeat. Brad Keselowski may be among them. Despite a wave of good performances during the second half of 2011, which spurred him onto the Chase, he actually was pretty bad during the season's first half.

It is not to say that he is an absolute lock to be locked out of the Chase. He may indeed just fall shy, though.

Matt Kenseth

2011 Finish: Fourth

Projected 2012 Finish: One up or two down.

Reason(s) for Projection: It is tough to see Matt Kenseth moving far from his solid fourth-place finish. There is no reason to think he cannot do one spot better. But other drivers could just have the luck and push him back to sixth. Either way, he will be back in the Chase.

Kevin Harvick

2011 Finish: Third

Projected 2012 Finish: About the same?

Reason(s) for Projection: After two consecutive third-place seasons, it is difficult to upgrade or demote Kevin Harvick's projection for 2012. Needless to say, he is another lock for the Chase.

Carl Edwards

2011 Finish: Second

Projected 2012 Finish: Below fifth place.

Reason(s) for Projection: Second-place NASCAR finishers have not fared well in ensuing seasons. Carl Edwards is a prime example, given his performance in 2008 and 2009. Mark Martin and Denny Hamlin fell into that pattern as well.

Edwards is capable of winning a title, but he could just as easily go the other way in the standings.

Tony Stewart

2011 Finish: Champion

Projected 2012 Finish: Not the champion.

Reason(s) for Projection: The lightning in a bottle that he caught in 2011 will not be repeated in 2012. He will return to the Chase, although this year he probably will do it on the strength of at least one or two wins in the regular season.