Super Bowl Odds 2012: Why You Should Stay Away from Betting the Spread

The New England Patriots are currently 3.5 point favorites over the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLVI.

And frankly, I wouldn't touch that line with a 40-foot pole.

I think this game will be a shootout and the winning team might end up being the one that has the ball in the end. That sort of a game is a crap shoot to predict, and I think there are safer bets out there you could play.

Laying the points with the Patriots is extremely risky in my opinion. But if you are absolutely convinced that the Giants are going to win this one straight-up anyway, take the 3.5 points while they're on the board.

I just have one question for you—what is convincing you they're a lock?

Is it that the Giants are the hotter team based on their five-game winning streak?

Well, the Patriots are currently in the midst of a 10-game winning streak.

Is it because the Giants won the first meeting between the two teams (and are the last team to beat the Patriots)?

Well, in playoff rematches this season, the team that won the first meeting has been 4-2. So while that number favors a Giants victory, it certainly isn't the world's most convincing statistic.

Maybe you're thinking the fact that the Giants held another high-powered offense, the Green Bay Packers, to 20 points, while the Patriots only managed 23 points against the Baltimore Ravens' stout defense.

Perhaps given this data, you've surmised that the Giants pass rush will slow down the Patriots and Eli Manning will have little problem outscoring New England.

But consider the following—the Packers played sloppy football against the Giants, dropping anywhere from six to eight passes and fumbling the ball three times.

Meanwhile, Tom Brady had far from his best performance against the Ravens and the Patriots still won the game.

Generally, the Patriots are excellent at protecting the ball and had a plus-17 turnover differential in the regular season.

This is my fancy way of saying I believe Brady will expose a weak New York secondary and the Patriots will put up points.

I also believe Eli Manning will do the same to New England's weak secondary.

And that 3.5 points you could take with the Giants might be a bit riskier than you think. Consider the following from Jay Rood, vice president of MGM Resorts (via the Los Angeles Times):

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"We were originally looking at the Patriots as 4- or 4 1/2-point favorites, but this Giants performance here [defeating San Francisco, 20-17, in overtime] being so dominating on the road against tough competition, while the Patriots are not looking as good as they have been, I think it's a good number."

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And don't forget this:

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"The fans want to bet the favorite and the over. I'm hoping to generate enough volume on the underdog and under to set that off. With the Patriots winning, going into this weekend I preferred to have the Giants as the second team to help us split the money because of all of their fans."

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For my money, this game is a pick-em and could very easily go either way. Without feeling confident that one team should be considered the clear favorite in this game, I'd stay away from this line.

Go bet on who will win the coin toss instead.

Hit me up on Twitter—that's where the magic happens.