AFC Championship Game 2012: Projections for Tom Brady and Game's Biggest Stars
It's championship weekend in the NFL, with just two games standing in the way of us knowing which two teams will face off in the Super Bowl in two short weeks.
The Baltimore Ravens take on the New England Patriots in the AFC championship game, in a battle between the conference's best defense and best offense.
Both teams field some of the most talented players in the league and they are all likely to make major impacts today.
Here are my stat projections for the biggest stars of today's AFC championship game.
QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots
1 of 4New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is having yet another impressive year, having thrown for over 5,000 yards in the regular season and scoring six touchdowns to one interception in his team's divisional round playoff win over the Denver Broncos last week.
He's the top-performing quarterback still in the playoffs, having averaged 327.2 passing yards per game in the regular season and throwing for 363 yards last week.
Today's game should see Brady throwing for fewer yards, considering he's up against the Baltimore Ravens and their seriously hard-hitting defense that's likely going to put pressure on Brady throughout the game.
However, it's nearly impossible to hold Brady down for an entire game, and he should still have a big day. I project Brady to throw for 289 yards, for three touchdowns and an interception; I see him being sacked two or three times as well—the Ravens pass rush is no joke.
QB Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
2 of 4Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco wasn't the most impressive passer in the divisional round of the playoffs last week, completing just over 50 percent of his passes for 176 yards.
He threw two touchdowns, but did so with the benefit of a short field that resulted from two Houston Texans turnovers, and had little success when he had to lead his offense in a long drive.
Though he should have a better day today against the New England Patriots and their 31st ranked secondary, it's still going to be difficult for him to put up the kinds of yards and points to keep up with Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.
The Ravens will need to focus more heavily on their run game this week if they have any hopes to win; if Flacco has to throw the ball 30 or 40 times, it's going to be a struggle.
Flacco averaged 225.6 passing yards per game in the regular season, but I see him throwing for less than that today. I project Flacco to have 189 passing yards for two touchdowns and one lost fumble against the Patriots this afternoon.
RB Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens
3 of 4The Baltimore Ravens have to avoid being drawn into a shootout with the New England Patriots today, with Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco not particularly suited to a pass-heavy attack.
That means that not only do the Ravens defense have to step up their efforts to hold down Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, that also means the offense needs to commit to handing the ball off to Ray Rice in order to gain major yardage in the middle of the field.
Rice has the most yards from scrimmage of any player this season, with 2,068, and 15 total touchdowns. He was held down by the venerable Houston Texans defense last week, with just 60 yards on 21 carries and four receptions for 20 yards, however, things should be different this week.
The Patriots defense has been shaky all year; while it's the failures of their secondary that has gotten the most attention, they're also giving up over 100 rushing yards per game this season.
They allowed the Denver Broncos to rush for 144 yards last week, and while that produced just a single touchdown for Denver, they will find themselves in a far different situation today if they give up that many yards on the ground to Rice.
Rice also assists Flacco in the passing game and and is his primary target for short throws. Regardless of the outcome of this game, Rice should have a big day, rushing 20 times for 135 yards and a score and catching six passes for 45 yards and another touchdown.
WR Wes Welker, New England Patriots
4 of 4Though New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski got a lot of quarterback Tom Brady's attention in the team's divisional round win over the Denver Broncos last week, with 10 receptions for 145 yards and three scores, it's still wide receiver Wes Welker who is Brady's most reliable target.
The Baltimore Ravens defense is likely to be keyed in on Gronkowski all day, but that shouldn't harm the Patriots' chances much considering the number of weapons at his disposal, with Welker the most dangerous.
Welker has the second-most regular season receiving yards in the league this year, with 1,569 on 122 receptions, and scored nine touchdowns in 2011.
He had six receptions on seven targets for 55 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos last week. Look for Welker to again pull down the majority of passes thrown to him, notching 9 receptions for 135 yards and two scores this afternoon.
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