NFL Conference Championship Picks Against the Spread for Every Game

Only three games remain in the NFL season, and no, we're not counting the Pro Bowl, which is less of a football game and more of a circus without elephants.

I feel like Tyra Banks from America's Next Top Model this week. Four very beautiful football teams stand before me. But I only have two photographs in my hand. The winners will head to Indianapolis for Super Bowl XLVI. The losers will head home, and wonder where it all went wrong.

The storylines are interesting: We have a quarterback that (loosens tie) gets no respect will face a defense that finished 31st in the league against the pass. We have team that went 6-10 last season but will now play for a conference championship in its own stadium, facing a team whose head coach was all but fired less than a month ago.

I went 3-1 against the spread in the divisional round last weekend (thanks for nothing, Tebow!), putting me at 5-3 on the postseason. But that's enough math for now. Let's pick some games. 

Baltimore +7.5 over NEW ENGLAND

Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco spent some time last week mouthing off to the press, which is his prerogative.

But when a quarterback complains about not getting respect and then barely completes half of his passes that weekend, it looks bad.

And 17 of his team's 20 points against Houston came from turnovers. And we saw very little big-play ability from the Delaware product under center.

Flacco will need to step up against a Patriots defense that gives up 8.0 yards per pass attempt. Ray Rice, who was conspicuously a non-factor against the Texans (only 60 yards from 21 carries), will also need to produce early. On defense, Ed Reed appears to be fine after a leg injury from the last play of last week's game and he should start, as usual.

We can say all we want about Tom Brady, but he can't play defense, too. I expect Baltimore to get their second playoff win in Foxborough in three years and reach their second Super Bowl in 11 years. 

New York Giants +3 over SAN FRANCISCO

This one could go either way, depending on how a few specific questions are answered on Sunday.

Can the Giants' front four knock Alex Smith on his ass?

Smith managed to out-Drew-Brees Drew Brees with a last-minute touchdown pass to Vernon Davis last Saturday. The next day, Jason Pierre-Paul and company took the likely NFL MVP and made him look amazingly mortal. Granted, the Niners' line is in much better shape than Green Bay's, which had battled injuries all season, but they have a tall order in front of them this weekend.

Also, can the Niners shut down Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz at the same time?

Either Cruz or Nicks has managed to have a 100-yard receiving day in eight of the Giants' last nine games. Even if San Francisco double-teams both of them, Eli Manning is more than happy to find Mario Manningham, or just dump off to Travis Beckham or Jake Ballard.

Can Eli keep it up?

Manning's performance in the playoffs deserves more discussion; in two games, he has thrown for 607 yards and six touchdowns. If he had a fourth game, he could seriously throw for 1,000 yards in this postseason. I think he'll get it.