NFL Playoff Picks 2012: Giants Defensive Line Will Key Upset of Packers

When the Giants pull the biggest upset of the postseason, the seemingly prophetic Jason Pierre-Paul and the defensive line will be the key. JPP guaranteed a victory over the Packers, and though many cringe at declarations like this, I didn't bat an eye.

He has since, backed off of his claim a bit, but I still see the Giants victorious in this game.

Here is why.

The Health of the Defensive Line

Right now, the Giants' talented defensive lineman are as healthy and focused as they've been all year. Only Osi Umenyiora is listed on the injury report, and he's probable. The Giants have three top-notch pass rushers when healthy in Justin Tuck, Umenyiora and Pierre-Paul.

It is essential to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers, without depending on blitzing your linebackers. The Giants have the talent and depth in their front four to do that.

Rust

Aaron Rodgers hasn't played a game in two weeks. This is why I'm not a proponent of resting players completely when your team has a bye in the first round. It is especially the case for a team like Green Bay who depends so much on their offense and the timing of the unit.

The Giants D-Line will almost certainly have Rodgers on the move. In their first meeting, they sacked him twice, but hit him six times. The Giants front four is playing even better now, and I expect at least the same level of pressure on Rodgers today.

The Packers don't have the type of defense that can hold the fort while Rodgers gets in sync. I think the two weeks off will hurt the effectiveness of the Packers offense.

Dominance on the Ground

The Giants are in a position to dominate on the ground. As well as the D-Line is playing, the Giants offense must take pressure off of them and keep them fresh. The best way they can do this is to run the ball effectively.

Long Giants' drives will rest the defense and add pressure to the Packers to score, as it limits possessions. The Giants running game looked great against the Falcons last week, racking up 172 yards. The Falcons' run defense (6th in the NFL) is far superior to the Packers' (14th in the NFL) and the G-Men ran for 100 yards in the first meeting with Green Bay.

They averaged five yards per carry but only ran it 20 times, despite leading after one quarter and being close throughout. They must resist the temptation to get in a shootout with the Packers whose pass defense is last in the NFL. No one will beat Green Bay that way. A strong commitment to the run is necessary to win this game.

Prediction

The Giants will pull the second upset of the NFC Playoffs and reach the NFC Championship.

Giants 28, Packers 20

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