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Are the NFL Divisional Playoffs 'Clunker-Proof' for CBS and Fox?

Dan LevyJun 6, 2018

Of the four Wild Card Games in this year's NFL playoffs, three were decided by 17 or more points. One, rather famously, was decided on an 80-yard touchdown pass in overtime.

The Wild Card Game between the Broncos and Steelers was a perfect storm for CBS. The game was in the Sunday afternoon window, and while one team had a 14-point halftime lead, it was pretty clear to anyone watching—or anyone who knows the past playoff history of the Steelers—the game was going to get close by the time the final whistle blew.

Nobody could anticipate exactly how close things would become and nobody in the NFL offices could have imagined more than 42 million people tuning in, with more than 54 million flipping over to CBS in time to watch overtime.

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As good as the NFL playoff ratings have gotten over the last few years, the Broncos-Steelers game last week had 14 million more viewers than the CBS Wild Card Game last year. 

The difference between Sunday's game and the 2011 edition would have been the seventh-highest rated show on TV last week.

Heading into the second round of the playoffs, everyone is left wondering just how high these ratings might go.

Let's not deny the fact that Tim Tebow had as much to do with that rating as the score of the game and the fact that two of the most storied franchises in the NFL were facing off in the playoffs. It was a perfect storm, and it's one CBS hopes can be recreated this weekend in New England.

But what if the game is a clunker?

The Patriots are a 13.5-point favorite, which means that Vegas, and most of the country, thinks this game has little chance of finishing the way last week's did. How will that impact the ratings, especially on a Saturday night?

Well, last Saturday night's game between the Lions and Saints ended up being a bit of a blowout—at least the first half was pretty close—and that game had nearly 32 million viewers on NBC.

The Falcons and Giants game on Sunday afternoon (the early slot) was a complete snoozefest and that game had 27.7 million viewers. Per reports, it was the highest-rated 1:00 p.m. ET Sunday Wild Card Game in eight years.

People just like football. Most don't even care if the game is close.

Traditionally, the ratings for the NFL playoffs get better each round, so it will be interesting to see if that can possibly happen this year with how high the ratings already are.

Can the Packers and Giants eclipse last year's Sunday afternoon ratings of 32.5 million viewers? Yes, they will crush that rating. But can they come close to last week's supernova in Denver?

It's impossible to think any game will come close to 54 million peak viewers or an average of 42 million. That said, Tim Tebow and Tom Brady are facing off in prime time and Green Bay and New York are playing in the traditionally top-rated slot on Sunday.

Maybe lightning can strike twice in the same postseason. 

Or, possibly, those two games could be blowouts, severely lowering the overall (and late-game) TV numbers.

The other two games look like the most competitive contests of the weekend.

Should Houston and Baltimore go down to the wire, the Sunday ratings could be enormous for a game most Americans are sleeping on right now.

And the Saints and the 49ers should be, from a football standpoint, the best game of the weekend, even if the NFL gave it the traditionally lowest-rated Saturday afternoon slot.

What's the takeaway from this?

It will be interesting how much a close game really matters in the ratings.

A close game between the Broncos and Patriots should shatter all known NFL playoff records, even on a Saturday night. But if that game is a clunker, will it do a better number than one of the other, more competitive games this weekend?

Perhaps we should forget worrying if the NFL is clunker-proof and start wondering if the other games this weekend are Tebow-proof. Fox certainly hopes they are.

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