UFC 142 Rio: Jose Aldo Will Hand Chad Mendes His First Loss

Jose Aldo has a lot working in his favor in his UFC featherweight title bout against Chad Mendes on Saturday night. He is the reigning champion, is on a 13-match winning streak and is fighting in his home country of Brazil. As a result, Aldo will hand challenger Mendes the first loss of his career. 

Never underestimate what it's like to fight at home. The adrenaline that will come from a rabid home crowd in Aldo's favor will give him an edge before the fight even starts. This wouldn't be the situation if Mendes had a little more experience fighting away from home, but that's not the case.

In his 11 career fights, the California native has only left the Pacific time zone once, and he has never had to fight outside of the country. The more comfortable you get training and fighting at home, the harder it becomes to adjust to a new setting. This is especially true when your first venture away from that happens to be in the backyard of the man you're fighting.

Also working in Aldo's favor is the fact that he is the champion. This wouldn't be as much of a factor in the heavyweight world, where knockouts are king. But in featherweight fighting, most fights go to the decision. That favors the champion in a big way. If you can't score a knockout (or submission) against the champion, you need to be completely dominant over him. 

Aldo won't be dominated, and he won't be caught for a submission or knockout. Look at his record. A guy who is 20-1 and hasn't dropped a fight in 13 attempts isn't all of the sudden going to get stuck.

Also significant is the fact that even though Aldo has had more UFC fights than Mendes, he's the younger of the two fighters. 

If Aldo was a few years older and nearing the end of his career, an upset would be more likely. But that's not the case. Both men are in the primes of their careers, which favors the champion. 

If even one of these factors wasn't working in Aldo's favor, an upset would be more likely. But Mendes has too much to overcome. The featherweight title belt won't be leaving Aldo's possession.

Prediction: Aldo, unanimous decision.

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