Ryan Vogelsong: San Francisco Giants Lock Up Right-Hander with 2-Year Deal

Good things come to those who wait.

After years of toiling between the Japanese League, Triple-A and short-lived stints in the major leagues, Ryan Vogelsong finally has the job security he's always wanted.

That's because the 34-year-old pitcher and the San Francisco Giants have come to terms on a two-year, $8.3 million contract, avoiding Vogelsong's final year of arbitration and staving off free agency until at least 2014.

Under the new contract, Vogelsong will receive $3 million in 2012 and $5 million in 2013. The Giants also hold a club option for 2014 worth $6.5 million with a $300,000 buyout if it's not picked up.

Entering 2011, Vogelsong had pitched parts of six seasons in the major leagues, compiling 315 innings, 216 strikeouts, 154 walks, 36 home runs allowed and a 5.86 ERA during that span. Those numbers translate to ratio stats of 6.2 K/9IP, 4.4 BB/9IP, 1.0 HR/9IP and a 1.40 K/BB ratio.

But in 2011, Vogelsong showed to be a much improved pitcher.

In 2011, Vogelsong pitched 179.2 innings, had 139 strikeouts, walked 61 batters, allowed 15 home runs and had a 2.71 ERA. When looked at in ratios, Vogelsong had 7.0 K/9IP, 3.1 BB/9IP, 0.8 HR/9IP and a 2.28 K/BB ratio.

He was also named to his first All-Star team and finished 11th in NL Cy Young voting.

That Vogelsong has greatly improved is a foregone conclusion. You can see an improvement when looking in every statistical category when comparing his 2011 season to his previous major league seasons.

He walks fewer batters and strikes out more batters. In essence, he's improved at doing the things that a pitcher can control.

But is it sustainable? And will the Giants regret signing Vogelsong to a two-year deal?

Whether or not Vogelsong's 2011 performance is sustainable is debatable. Vogelsong's peripherals suggest that there was a bit of luck involved with his 2.71 ERA. It's indicated by his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) of .280 compared to the 2011 major league average of .291.

Vogelsong was bestowed with a LOB% (Left on Base Percentage) of 80.4 percent. That's considerably higher than the 72.5 percent major league average.

The law of averages would suggest that his BABIP and LOB% would normalize, having a negative effect on his ERA.

But even if those numbers were normalized, Vogelsong still would be an above-average pitcher.

You can look at Fangraph's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which normalizes for BABIP, among other things, and see that Vogelsong posted a 3.67 FIP in 2011. Or, in other words, a 3.67 ERA if Vogelsong's BABIP was normalized.

Another good indicator of future performance is xFIP, which is the same as FIP but normalizes the home-run rate to league average as well as the BABIP, as statistics suggest both are largely out of a pitcher's control.

In terms of xFIP, Vogelsong posted a 3.85 last year. That would translate to a 3.85 ERA, which is still pretty solid.

On top of that, Vogelsong is the Giants' fourth-best pitcher, regardless of how Bruce Bochy may decide to align his rotation to begin the season. Having a No. 4 starter with a sub-4.00 ERA is a luxury.

Assuming Vogelsong doesn't greatly regress or start walking batters at an alarming rate, then it should be a good deal for the Giants. Even if his 2.71 ERA was a flash in the pan, paying $8.3 million over two years for a pitcher that should put up a sub-4.00 ERA is a solid investment.

And it couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.