NFL Playoff Schedule 2012: Why Houston Will Beat Baltimore

When the Houston Texans play the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC divisional round, it's a case two teams that are almost exact replicas of one another. Both have excellent defenses (each rank in the top five), solid ground games and capable passing attacks.

They each can rush the quarterback, cause turnovers and stop the run arguably better than anyone in the league. So how will Houston win?

Well, here are some reasons/areas where the Texans do have an advantage.

Andre Johnson

In the first meeting between Houston and Baltimore, Texans receiver Andre Johnson did not play. Fortunately for Houston, he was healthy to go in Week 17 and then again last week.

Arguably the most dominant offensive player in this game, Johnson's presence alone gives Houston a major edge. We know he can stretch the field and be a great possession receiver across the middle on third down, but all he'll really need to do is derive attention to prevent Baltimore from constantly blitzing.

By that token, it will make running the ball a little easier for the Texans and take even more pressure of T.J. Yates. Johnson may see double coverage all game, but targeting him deep a few times is all Houston needs to keep the Ravens honest.

Doing so will then allow the Houston rushing attack to really take effect and occasionally draw up defenders. Then by going deep off of play-action, the Texans once again stretch the field with one of the league's most explosive receivers.

Dual-Back System

On the year Houston finished second in the NFL in rushing by averaging 153 rush yards per game. Arian Foster collected 1,224 yards on the ground and trusty sidekick Ben Tate added 942 on just 175 carries.

Foster also accounted for 617 receiving yards on 53 receptions, making him one of the best dual-backs in the league. In Baltimore, Ray Rice simply exists.

And although Rice is most definitely one of the best and most complete backs in the NFL, it's still easier for a defense to game-plan for one guy instead of two.

Ray did outrun Foster by gaining 1,364 rushing and 704 receiving on 76 catches, but his trusty sidekick, Ricky Williams, was not utilized nearly as much as Ben Tate.

As for the game, Foster and Rice cancel each other out, but expect Arian to have the better game because of Andre Johnson out wide and Ben Tate's presenting threat as a Brahma Bull also. In short, the Baltimore defense has much more weaponry to worry about.

Rice is a dual-threat back, but so are both Foster and Tate. When a team has two running backs combine for 2,166 rushing yards and an average almost five yards per carry, they have the advantage. 

Nothing to Lose

Coming into the postseason, the Texans were on a three-game losing streak and finished just 10-6. Not to mention this is the franchise's first-ever postseason appearance and division championship. That being said, they've already accomplished more than most expected.

As for Baltimore, they have made the postseason four of the last five seasons (including 2011) and won the division twice but only made it to one AFC title game (loss to Pittsburgh in 2008). Joe Flacco has played about as bad as a quarterback can play in the playoffs, so there's added pressure for him and the Ravens to play well.

Houston, on the contrary, is a feel-good story since they've overcome so many injuries to get this far; because of their inexperience on top of that, the Texans aren't suppose to win this game.

Well, those with basically nothing to lose and everything to gain are the most dangerous. Houston has already played at Baltimore once and has figured out how to win despite injuries. A loss in this game does not make 2011-12 a disappointing season for Houston, by any means.

A loss for the Ravens, though, will be extremely detrimental heading into the 2012 offseason. 

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