5 Legitimate NBA Title Contenders and 5 Pretenders

Miami Heat fans might have wanted to hide their eyes last night as the Heat (the prevailing favorites to win an NBA title) laid a stinker of an egg in the fourth quarter and let a game get away from them.

Don't let that worry you too much. In this crazy schedule stinkers are going to happen. 

That being said, there have been some crazy surprises so far this year. Some teams are doing far better than expected, and others aren't. 

Here are 10 teams who are getting mention as potential champs. Five of them are real contenders. Five of them are just pretenders. 

Contenders are ranked in order of the likelihood they win. Contenders are ranked in order of how wrong people are about them. 

Pretender: New York Knicks

When the New York Knicks signed Tyson Chandler this summer, a lot of people wanted to label them as title contenders and even compare the Knicks "Big Three" with the Heat's. 

There really is no comparison, aside from the fact that the Heat have an advantage of having played together for a year now. 

They also have a better bench than the Knicks. 

The Knicks haven't even earned the right to be compared with the Heat. They have one position, center, where they have Miami beat. 

They have the 14th best offense in the NBA based on offensive rating. They also have the 13th-ranked defense. 

In other words, this team is slightly above average. Slightly above average teams don't win championships. They have too many holes and they need far more time together before they become a real contender. 

Contender: Philadelphia 76ers/Denver Nuggets

The last contender came down to a choice between two teams, and I ended up calling it a draw. The interesting thing is, the reasoning for both of these teams is similar. 

This year a team like the 2004 Pistons has a shot. Depth matters more this year than any because of the condensed nature of the schedule. 

Consider these details. 

Both teams have very deep benches. In terms of efficiency differential, Philadelphia's bench is first in the NBA, Denver's is second. 

Both teams are in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive ratings. 

Both teams have great coaches, George Karl and Doug Collins, who have tremendous history. 

Both teams were in the playoffs last year. 

Both teams have a multitude of players they can go to on offense even though they have no true "superstar." 

In some ways that can be more difficult to prepare for. If you plan to stop one person, another can beat you. 

Each of these teams can be a dark horse to win it all. 

Pretender: Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics were in the finals just the year before last. They were winning the championship with this same core of players not too long ago. Don't be tricked into thinking that this is the same team though. 

When you look at the Boston Celtics you always think "defense," but this team doesn't have that much to brag about on defense. 

In fact they have the 21st "best" defensive rating in the NBA. That's not enough to get it done. Boston just isn't as frightening on defense as it once was, and they are no longer a championship-caliber team. 

Contender: Portland Trail Blazers

Everything that I said about the Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers is true with the Portland Trail Blazers, with a few exceptions.

Their bench is not quite as good. They are "only" ninth in efficiency differential.

The other difference is that they do have a superstar caliber player in LaMarcus Aldridge. He might not have the same recognition as some of the other stars, but he's raised his game to the superstar level of play. 

Portland also has a great, not good but great, defensive wing in Gerald Wallace. 

That's going to come in handy when it  comes to getting past teams like the Lakers and the Heat in a series.

Portland is still a long shot, but they have a real chance.  

Pretender: San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs just no longer have a championship level defense. In fact, they don't even have an average defense anymore. Their defensive rating is only 26th in the NBA. 

Last year I said the same thing and people said they would  "turn it on" in the playoffs. Then they got to the playoffs and got knocked out in the first round against the eighth-seeded Grizzlies. 

This year they won't have to worry about that because they won't have a top-four seed. The Spurs are not contenders this year. In fact they barely qualify as pretenders. 

Contender: Los Angeles Lakers

Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers are looking as good as any team in the Western Conference right now. Crazy talk about Kobe's shot attempts aside, the Lakers are winning. Andrew Bynum is playing as well as he's ever played. Pau Gasol is playing to prove himself. 

And yes. Kobe Bryant is scoring like it's 2005. 

Mike Brown's defense has the Lakers ranked fifth in defensive rating too. 

This is a team that has a very real chance to get to the finals. In fact, it's a distinct possibility that the Kobe vs. LeBron finals that would blow up Nielsen could happen this year. 

Pretender: Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks might be the defending NBA champions, but they aren't the same team that won the championship. The players aren't all there. There are too many key components that are missing. 

I don't just mean Tyson Chandler either. The loss of JJ Barea was huge. Chandler was a huge factor in the zone defense. Barea's dribble penetration was essential in breaking down other defenses. Those things are gone and not replaced. 

This team didn't win last year and wouldn't have won last year. This is a pretender, not a contender. 

Contender: Chicago Bulls

The Chicago Bulls are an improved version of last year's team that won the most games in the NBA. More importantly they are far more balanced. 

Derrick Rose's shooting percentage is down nearly .10 from last year. More players are involved in the offense. 

Last year the team was dead last in production from the shooting guard position. This year they are eighth in production, and seventh in net production. 

That added balance comes in spite of the fact that Richard Hamilton has only played in half of the team's games. Improved offense from Ronnie Brewer has been a major factor. Improved defense from Kyle Korver has him on the court longer. 

Consequently, the Bulls offense has jumped form 12th in the NBA to fifth in offensive rating. Right now only two teams, Philadelphia and Chicago, are top five in both offensive and defensive rating. 

Pretender: Oklahoma City Thunder

Defensive rating is critical when you're talking about chances to win a championship. About a year ago I spent a considerable amount of time researching the most consistent factors in winning a championship. 

Here is what I learned about defense. 

"

The most compelling consistency in previous NBA champions is Defensive Rating. Nearly half (16 teams) have finished in the top three in the league, 23 have been in the top five, and only two teams—the '01 Lakers and the '95 Rockets—were outside of the top 10.  When it comes to winning championships, nothing seems to matter as much as stopping the other team when they have the ball. 

"

In the two exceptions, the team in question had the best defensive center in the league, and the team simply played much better defense in the postseason. Whether it was the 1995 Hakeem Olajuwon or the 2001 Shaquille O'Neal, the best center in the NBA was on the two exceptions. 

Kendrick Perkins is not the best center in the NBA and the Thunder are not either the '95 Rockets or the "01 Lakers. 

They are the 23rd-ranked defense in the NBA though, which is lower than the Lakers (21) or Rockets (12) were. They won't be making history this year. They simply don't have the defense to win a title. 

Contender: Miami Heat

If you don't think the Heat are a real contender, I just have one thing to say. Really?

The Heat have arguably the two best players in the world on their team. Those two players are incredibly versatile and play on both sides of the ball. They also have one of the five best big men in the world on their team. 

In fact, LeBron James has a career PER of 27.02, second best in NBA history. Dwyane Wade, 25.60, has the sixth best in the history of the league. There's just no compelling argument you can make that that duo can't win a ring. 

They've added depth to the team both through the draft and through free agency. They're greatly improved, but there are other deeper teams. If other teams have a chance to win it all it'll be because of their superior depth. 

Yes, this team is very much a contender and very much the favorite to win it all, but they aren't a shoo-in.