Texans vs. Ravens: Preview and Predictions for AFC Divisional Round

The Houston Texans will look to parlay their first playoff win in franchise history into a spot in the AFC Championship Game when they meet the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday.

The Ravens trounced the Texans in Charm City in Week 6 of the 2011 NFL season, 29-14.

Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland

When: Sunday, January 15 at 1:00 p.m. EST

Watch: CBS

Spread: Ravens -7.5 (according to sportsbook.com)

Go with the Ravens here. Baltimore won all eight of its home games this season by an average margin of 12.5 points, including a 15-point stomping of the Texans back when Matt Schaub was still healthy. Rookie T.J. Yates doesn't figure to find working against the Ravens' nasty defense any easier than Schaub did.

Over/Under: 35.5 (according to sportsbook.com)

Take the over. True, these two teams are known for their great defenses, with the Ravens checking in third in scoring and the Texans in fourth.

However, Baltimore and Houston combined to average 47.4 points per game this season and put up 43 points the last time they met.

Key Injuries

Texans:

QB Matt Schaub is out for the season with a foot injury.

LB/DE Mario Williams is out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle.

CB Jason Allen is questionable with a back injury.

Ravens:

WR Anquan Boldin is questionable with a knee injury.

CB Jimmy Smith is questionable with a concussion.

G Marshal Yanda is probable with sore ribs.

Fantasy Big Plays

START: Ravens RB Ray Rice

Rice was all over the field when these two teams tangled in Week 6, racking up 101 yards rushing and 60 yards receiving. Expect Joe Flacco to feed Rice the ball early and often to loosen up Houston's defense.

SIT: Texans QB T.J. Yates

T.J. Yates has thrown four touchdown passes in seven career starts, with three of those scores coming against the Cincinnati Bengals. Yates has yet to face a defense that can so much as hold a candle to Baltimore's, which was the stingiest in the NFL against opposing fantasy quarterbacks this season.

START: Ravens K Billy Cundiff

I know what you're thinking—who cares about the kicker? And why Billy Cundiff, who hit just 75.7 percent of his field goal attempts this season?

Cundiff was a busy guy when the Ravens hosted the Texans in Week 6, nailing all five of his field goal attempts and both of his PATs. Expect Cundiff to be at the ready early and often when Baltimore's O struggles to finish drives against Houston's D.

Keys to Texans Win

The Texans' success or failure is entirely predicated on what happens on the ground. If they run the ball and stop the run anywhere near as well as they did against Cincy on Wild Card weekend (188 rushing yards and two touchdowns for, 76 rushing yards and a touchdown against), they'll be in good shape to spring a monumental upset.

And if they struggle in those departments, as they did last time they were in the Beltway (93 rushing yards and a touchdown for, 113 rushing yards and two touchdowns against), then Houston will, indeed, have a problem hanging with the Ravens.

Keys to Ravens Win

As good as their defense is, the Ravens can't rely solely on the likes of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata to win the game for them. If Baltimore is to have any chance of actually (and finally) competing for a Super Bowl title, it'll need Joe Flacco to step up to the plate and prove that he's ready to lead the offense from under center.

That doesn't mean Flacco will have to do is all by his lonesome—he still has Ray Rice around to help him out—but rather that he'll need to make a play from time to time to keep Houston's defense honest, just as he did in their previous meeting.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 20

The Texans looked great on Wild Card weekend, albeit against a Bengals team that hadn't beaten much anyone this season.

Still, the Ravens are about as good a home team as there is in the NFL right now. With the AFC being as weak as it is, Baltimore will seize the opportunity to reach Indianapolis with a resounding win over Houston on the way to the AFC Championship Game.

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