Strikeforce Results: How Would Luke Rockhold Fare Against UFC Middleweights?

Last night, Luke Rockhold retained his belt by finishing Keith Jardine with strikes. It was obvious to most that Jardine was outmatched, and Rockhold didn't dissapoint.

In the post-fight interview, the Strikeforce middleweight champion expressed a desire to fight top UFC middleweights, since the highest ranking middleweights are not in Strikeforce.

While he may not be moved to the UFC instantly, he'll find himself there before too long if he keeps demolishing the best Strikeforce has to offer.

The following is a list of some of the UFC's top middleweights, and how Rockhold would fare against them if he fought them now.

 

10. Wanderlei Silva

Wanderlei Silva may be nearing the end of his career, but his win over Cung Le proved he still has some gas in the tank.

Wanderlei Silva's chin is extremely bad, but the truth is his fighting abilities haven't worn down too badly with age. He is still a dangerous and capable fighter.

If the two fought, Wanderlei Silva would look to make the fight dirty and disrupt Rockhold's clean striking.

But in the end, Rockhold would hold a decisive advantage. His wrestling and groundwork are arguably superior to Silva's, and his clean striking combined with Silva's poor chin make the chances of a knockout fairly high.

Rockhold's Chances: 70%

Most Likely Outcome: Rockhold by R1 TKO

9. Chris Leben

Chris Leben fell short against Mark Munoz in his last appearance, but is still one of the better middleweights in the UFC, and a very good gatekeeper.

Leben would not necessarily bring anything to the table that Jacare and Jardine didn't, but he is a tough fighter and the hardest-hitting fighter Rockhold would have faced.

But I think Rockhold's superior technique in all areas would allow him to easily subdue Leben, and I trust his chin to survive the few punches of Leben that do land with force.

Rockhold's Chances: 70%

Most Likely Outcome: Rockhold by 30-27 UD

8. Michael Bisping

In Bisping, Rockhold faces another strong technical striker. Bisping recently dominated Jason "Mayhem" Miller to remind fans that he is still a strong middleweight.

The overall boxing and well-roundedness of Bisping make him a tough opponent for almost any middleweight, but I think Rockhold can pull off the upset.

Bisping's defensive wresting isn't great, as we learned against his fight with Miller. I would say Rockhold is physically stronger and a better wrestler than Miller, and can harm Bisping on the ground.

And since Rockhold uses his kicks frequently, Bisping would have a harder time avoiding punishment and landing successful counterpunches.

It think if they fought now it would be a close fight, but I see Rockhold pulling through.

Rockhold's Chances: 50+%

Most Likely Outcome: Rockhold by Split Decision

7. Demian Maia

Maia's skills are fairly similar to Jacere's, in that his main strength is his BJJ.  But unlike Jacere, Maia has strong top control, which would make him a bigger threat to Rockhold if he ends up being taken down.

Maia's striking has improved considerably since his UFC debut, but it doesn't match up to Rockhold's. On the feet, Maia would take a lot of punishment.

But his stronger-than-average wrestling and great ground game would allow him to bring Rockhold down to the mat and control him, and Rockhold, while good on the ground, does not match up to Maia.

Rockhold's Chances: 40%

Most Likely Outcome: Maia by 29x28 UD

6. Brian Stann

Brian Stann brings big power and good technical striking to the table.

His weakness is his ground game, where Rockhold excels, but he has been working on his defensive wrestling since his loss to Phil Davis, and won't make it easy for Rockhold to take him down.

Still, I see Rockhold taking this one. His long reach and good ground game will eventually shine through, and I see him getting the better of Stann.

Rockhold's Chances: 60%

Most Likely Outcome: Rockhold by 30x27 UD

5. Mark Munoz

Since dropping down to middleweight, Mark Munoz has put himself in the mix for top contender.  He has won seven of his last eight fights, and has looked very dominant in almost all of them.

On the feet, the fight would look like Rockhold vs. Jacere.  Munoz hits hard, but doesn't have great technical striking to go along with it. Rockhold would hold the advantage.

But on the ground, Munoz would end up being successful. Munoz isn't impervious to submissions, and cut it close against Demian Maia when the two fought. But Demian Maia is a better ground practitioner than Rockhold.

With some effort, Munoz would be able to keep Rockhold down and do more damage to him there than Rockhold can do on the feet.

Rockhold's Chances: 35%

Most Likely Outcome: Munoz by 29x28 UD

4. Vitor Belfort

Belfort is the second most dangerous striker at middleweight.  He has five knockouts in his last six wins, and is known for his ability to explode on his opponent when he has him hurt.

Rockhold would have a wrestling advantage over Belfort, but both are good on the ground. I am not confident that Rockhold could get a submission or do significant damage before the fight is stood up.

In this fight, I suspect that Rockhold would do solid damage to Belfort on the feet, but it's only a matter of time before Belfort finds an opening and swarms on Rockhold.

Rockhold's Chances: 20%

Most Likely Outcome: Belfort by R1 TKO

3. Yushin Okami

Yushin Okami was recently soundly defeated by Silva, but he is still a top middleweight.

Okami would threaten Rockhold with solid striking and very strong grappling.

Rockhold may hold an advantage on the feet, but it isn't significant enough to deal with Okami's overall strength and grappling ability.

Okami would likely bring Rockhold to the mat and damage him there, and win after three full rounds.

Rockhold's Chances: 15%

Most Likely Outcome: Okami by 30x27 UD

2. Chael Sonnen

Sonnen is a very competent striker, as he proved against Okami and when he became the first man to knock down Anderson Silva.

But that isn't really relevant, since the entire bout would be contested on the mat.

Rockhold would have no answer to Sonnen's takedowns, and Sonnen would damage Rockhold on the ground en route to a bloody and dominant decision victory.

Rockhold's Chances: 30% (basically, the odds Rockhold getting a triangle choke from guard)

Most Likely Outcome: Sonnen by 30x27 unanimous decision

1. Anderson Silva

Sorry, Rockhold, but you don't stand a chance against Silva yet.

Silva is a far better striker than Rockhold, and would have no trouble knocking him out in a prolonged striking bout.

Rockhold's best chance is to take Silva to the mat and control him against the cage for the full five rounds.

But he won't have a big advantage (if any) on the ground, and the chances of him getting caught in a 25 minute window are very high.

Rockhold's Chances: 3-5%

Most Likely Outcome: Silva via R2 KO

Conclusion:

Rockhold is a very solid middleweight, but not good enough to beat he elite of the UFC's middleweight division. If he entered the UFC now, he'd probably be considered the eighth or ninth best middleweight on the roster.

Still, he's only 27 years old and has plenty of time to improve. It is easy to imagine Rockhold having some success over the upper-mid level middleweights and even enter title contention after enough time.

Rockhold expressed a desire to fight the best middleweights the UFC has to offer. If he beats Tim Kennedy, there will be no other viable threats to his title in Strikeforce, and he can start to prove himself amongst the elite of the sport in the UFC.