NFL Exec Predicts Sam Darnold Will Sign Raiders Contract in 2025 Free Agency

Don't be surprised if the Las Vegas Raiders target Sam Darnold in free agency this offseason.

"At Pick 6, [the Raiders] are out of range for a quarterback unless they move up, which wouldn't be smart based on the amount of holes they have," a high-ranking personnel man from an NFL team told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. "They need every pick. They have flexibility within the cap to get it done."

There are a lot of variables to sort out here, of course.

The first is the Minnesota Vikings and whether they want to bring Darnold back. The issue there is that the free agency market could price them out. Alongside the Raiders, teams like the New York Giants or Pittsburgh Steelers could have eyes for Darnold, and with J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings, the Vikings may not be inclined to splash major cash to win the Darnold sweepstakes.

As Fowler noted, "Most execs polled believe Darnold belongs in the Geno Smith/Baker Mayfield class of contracts, somewhere in the range of three years and $100 million."

The Vikings could instead use that money to build a loaded roster around McCarthy's rookie contract, similar to the approach the San Francisco 49ers took with Brock Purdy.

Another factor to consider is whether the next head coach in Las Vegas sees Darnold as the right fit for his system. The 27-year-old had a career year in 2024, throwing for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while leading the Vikings to the playoffs, but head coach Kevin O'Connell is something of a quarterback whisperer and Darnold's tenures with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers weren't pretty.

But even so, Darnold is still a better option than paying a massive price to trade up for a top-two pick to select Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders at the 2025 NFL draft, and the quarterback class behind those two is pretty weak. The options at quarterback in free agency aren't much better (unless Russell Wilson or Justin Fields are your particular cup of tea).

The Raiders have a superstar-in-the-making at tight end in Brock Bowers and a solid wideout in Jakobi Meyers, so Darnold wouldn't be without weapons.

They also have $95.6 million in estimated cap space, second in the NFL, which is the sort of money that would allow them to sign Darnold and add veteran help around him. It's not a bad plan for Las Vegas, giving them a major upgrade at the position in the short term and the flexibility to seek out a long-term solution down the line.