2024-25 NFL MVP: Updated Predictions Entering Divisional Bracket After Final Odds

NFL MVP voters have already spoken.

We just don't know what they've said yet.

Voting results won't be made public for a little while longer, but oddsmakers already have a strong hunch about how this will play out. Based on the final MVP odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (accessed via Vegas Insider), there is an overwhelming favorite in this field.

That player isn't running unopposed, though, so after laying out the final odds, we'll examine the MVP credentials of said favorite and the player closest behind.

Final MVP Odds

Greg Fiume/Getty Images

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - JANUARY 04: Derrick Henry #22 of the Baltimore Ravens celebrates with Lamar Jackson #8 after scoring touchdown against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium on January 04, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

Josh Allen: -450 (bet $450 to win $100)

Lamar Jackson: +320 (bet $100 to win $320)

Saquon Barkley: +8000

Joe Burrow: +10000

Jared Goff: +15000

Jayden Daniels: +25000

Baker Mayfield: +40000

Justin Herbert: +50000

Sam Darnold: +50000

Patrick Mahomes: +50000

Derrick Henry: +50000

Jalen Hurts: +50000

Josh Allen's MVP Argument

Kathryn Riley/Getty Images

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 12: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills warms up prior to the start of the game against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium on January 12, 2025 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)

Last offseason, the Buffalo Bills split from several impact veterans, including Josh Allen's top two targets in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Stepping back felt like a distinct possibility, if not for the team overall, then at least for the offense.

That slippage never surfaced. In fact, Buffalo matched a franchise record with 13 wins, collected its fifth consecutive AFC East crown and averaged the second-most points in the league (30.9).

Allen isn't solely responsible for this success, but he has had the biggest say in it. He's had loud stat lines in the past, but he never did a better job of blending volume production with efficiency. He tallied 28 touchdown passes against just six interceptions, posted his third-highest completion percentage (63.6) and scored his second-most rushing touchdowns (12) despite tying for the second-fewest carries of his career (102).

This was one-man-wrecking-ball type domination, and Allen had his club appearing unstoppable more often than not. Stats alone won't decide this race since his top competitor has some outrageous numbers of his own, but Allen's are elite regardless and could form an award-winning combination with the compelling narrative about his ability to overcome the many roster subtractions.

Making the Case for Lamar Jackson

Al Bello/Getty Images

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - JANUARY 11: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens throws a pass during the third quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the AFC Wild Card Playoff at M&T Bank Stadium on January 11, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

Remember all of the awesome things we just said about Allen's season? Well, they weren't enough to get him All-Pro first team honors, as that spot instead went to Lamar Jackson.

Could the MVP voting play out in similar fashion? Jackson has certainly given voters plenty to think about.

Head-to-head, Jackson had better numbers than Allen in just about everything: passing yards (4,172 to 3,731), rushing yards (915 to 531), passing touchdowns (41 to 28), interceptions (four to six), quarterback rating (119.6 to 101.4). And while Allen's Bills won more games (13 to 12), Jackson's Baltimore Ravens dominated the teams' Week 4 matchup, winning by a massive 35-10 count.

Something seems to be holding Jackson back in voters' eyes. Perhaps there's some voter fatigue considering he won the award last season (and in 2019). Or maybe he's fighting against narratives, since Baltimore's offseason was defined by additions, most notably bulldozing running back Derrick Henry, who earned All-Pro second-team honors while tallying 1,921 rushing yards and 16 rushing scores.

Oddsmakers seem convinced that Allen will be the winner, but Jackson's case is still highly convincing.

---

Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.