Big Ten Championship Game 2024: Early Preview, Predictions for Penn State vs. Oregon
The lone top-five clash of conference championship weekend comes from the Big Ten Championship Game.
The top-ranked Oregon Ducks match up with the Penn State Nittany Lions in Indianapolis on Saturday night.
Oregon is playing to keep the lone unbeaten record in the FBS alive and to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff.
Penn State is in the Big Ten title game for the second time in program history, and while it has had a great season, one statistic looms large over the Nittany Lions.
James Franklin has a horrible record against top-five opposition and that has held Penn State back from joining the elite ranks of college football in the last decade.
One thing is for sure: the winner of Saturday's game will be the first Big Ten Championship Game winner not named Ohio State or Michigan since 2016.
Penn State Looking to End Poor Run Against Top Five Teams
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Penn State only has one win against a top-five opponent during James Franklin's tenure as head coach.
The Nittany Lions added to that statistic with a home loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes in November.
To their credit, the Nittany Lions have typically not fallen victim to upsets, like countless top-10 teams have this season.
Penn State rebounded from its loss to Ohio State with four wins, three of which were of the double-digit variety.
The Nittany Lions have a veteran quarterback in Drew Allar, a dynamic running back tandem in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen as well as an elite tight end in Tyler Warren.
Penn State's defense ranks in the top six in scoring defense and total yards allowed per game.
The Nittany Lions have the look of a title contender, but until they beat another top-five team under Franklin, doubts will be cast about their potential.
Oregon Looking to Keep Lone FBS Undefeated Season Alive
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Oregon has been the one FBS team truly in cruise control this season.
The Ducks picked up a marquee win at home over Ohio State, and after that, blew out a majority of their opponents.
Dan Lanning's team eclipsed the 30-point mark in 10 of its 12 games and it held nine of its 12 opponents under 20 points.
Oregon also has a veteran quarterback in Dillon Gabriel and plenty of talent sprinkled around him on offense.
The Ducks have a top-10 defense that rounds out a complete roster, but if there's one knock on them, it's that their only test came against Ohio State.
Oregon won big against lesser opposition for most of the campaign and it allowed 31 points to Ohio State at home.
It's hard to poke holes in the resume of the top-ranked team, but if you were to do it, that would be the case to be made.
Prediction
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Penn State 20, Oregon 17
If you took away Franklin's stats against top-five teams from the equation, Penn State is in comparable standing with Oregon.
The two teams are incredibly similar and it may take one big play from either offense to capture the Big Ten title.
Penn State has that dynamic playmaker in Tyler Warren, the nation's top tight end, and he could be the difference-maker in a tight game.
Neither team's playoff status is at risk, so both programs should play with little hesitation and give us potentially the best game of championship weekend.
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