Updated Post-Thanksgiving 2025 NHL Playoffs Predictions
They say the NHL standings on American Thanksgiving paint a pretty accurate picture of what will become the eventual playoff field, and they're right. Last season, 13 of 16 teams in a playoff position on Thanksgiving went on to make it. That's a success rate of 81.25 percent, which will do. For the past decade, the accuracy is about 77 percent.
This means if the trend persists this season, we got a look at about three-quarters of the playoff field last Thursday. This also means somewhere around three teams in a playoff spot on Nov. 28 won't go on to make it, and three-or-so teams out of the picture will fight their way in.
Let's consider the Thanksgiving rule—and how common a few spoilers are—as we predict what the playoff field will actually be come April.
Atlantic Division Winners: Toronto Maple Leafs
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The Leafs have reached a whole new gear this year, proving they've got serious depth when Auston Matthews was out with injury and proving they can win close games. They're more dimensional than they've been in all facets of the game, with Chris Tanev anchoring the defense and Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll becoming one of the strongest true goaltending tandems in the league right now.
The Leafs have been the most consistent, even-keeled team in the Atlantic. They've got a tougher schedule ahead, but Matthews is back and they've risen to every challenge thus far.
Atlantic Division Second Place: Florida Panthers
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The Panthers started off the season red-hot despite various injuries, proving the depth has still got it and that Sam Reinhart's 58-goal season was not a fluke. Now that they're at full strength, things have been business as usual for the reigning champs. They've had their small slumps, but they always follow up with a stronger win streak.
Atlantic Division Third Place: Tampa Bay Lightning
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The Lightning had the hardest schedule in the first quarter of the NHL season, and it has shown with a mixed bag of results. Still, they're 12-9-2, their first line of Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov is one of the most dominant in the league, and they're crushing opponents on their good days. Expect more consistency from Tampa Bay as its schedule gets a bit easier soon.
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Metropolitan Division Winners: Washington Capitals
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Dylan Strome has really found his way in his time with the Capitals, and he's taking it to another level this year with 34 points in 24 games. Both John Carlson and Tom Wilson have seemed to age in reverse, while Jakob Chychrun has fit in seamlessly on the blue line. We haven't even discussed Alex Ovechkin yet, and the 39-year-old sniper was on pace to smash the all-time goals record this season before injury.
He's been great, and yet his absence hasn't made the team flinch as it continues to rack up thrilling wins and the best goal differential in the league.
Metropolitan Division Second Place: New Jersey Devils
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You know the Devils are rounding into form when we're gifted a hilarious Jack Hughes interview, and we got that after last night's thrashing of the Rangers.
It was a hot start then a "come down to Earth period" for the Devils, and now they're building consistency and confidence by racking up the wins. They just climbed back up to No.1 in the Metro, and it looks like they're going to hover around the top for the rest of the season.
Metropolitan Division Third Place: Carolina Hurricanes
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The Hurricanes have almost had it all this season: Martin Necas is second leaguewide in scoring with 12 goals and 37 points in 24 games, players new and old are doing their job down the lineup, and the defense is sturdy. But goaltending injuries have exposed their need for more depth in that department, and the top of the Metropolitan is an extremely unforgiving place.
Pyotr Kochetkov is back on the ice after concussion protocol, though, and he has a message:
Eastern Conference First Wild Card: Boston Bruins
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Not only have the Bruins won more games than they've lost under head coach Joe Sacco, but they're doing it in a convincing way. Folks, they're actually scoring goals (gasp). The explosion of goals is a departure from early offensive struggles, and it might regress somewhere in the middle. But it's been a much-needed reset for the team as Jeremy Swayman looks to stabilize on the other end of the ice.
Eastern Conference Second wild Card: New York Rangers
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There isn't a team more perplexing than the New York Rangers right now. They should be better, and they've looked like that dominant team we've known them to be during parts of the season. But lately, all the wind appears to be knocked out of them, and there's not a crumb of momentum.
You wonder if the trade rumors that've been swirling are souring the vibe of the locker room, and you wonder who is going to take the blame for all of this. Will they move on from Peter Laviolette? Will they trade Chris Kreider? It seems like everything is on the table and we're just waiting for something to happen. As we wait, though, the Rangers are sliding out of the playoff picture—which is shocking.
Central Division Winners: Minnesota Wild
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At this time last season, the Wild were the typical Wild—clawing in and out of a wild-card spot, little confidence or momentum built up and a low-grade sense of dread surrounding them. This season, they haven't left anything up to chance: This is a great hockey team.
Kirill Kaprizov is in the Hart Trophy conversation, so many on the roster are performing how we imagined they could, and the goaltending ain't too shabby. Dare I say the Wild have been the most consistent team in the West as of late?
Central Division Second Place: Winnipeg Jets
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The Jets have come back down to Earth a bit after their historic, 15-win start, but even Earth is a pretty good place to be if you're a Winnipeg Jet. If we're being nitpicky, we're starting to see some depth-scoring issues (which we always thought this roster would have), but the defense and goaltending are still world-class. The Jets beat the Wild 4-1 last week, so they've nailed the head-to-head, but they're the ones who have shown us the regular-season team vs. team matchups don't necessarily mean much come playoffs (Hello, Avalanche).
Central Division Third Place: Dallas Stars
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The ever-consistent Stars have officially recovered from a "rough patch," and they look pretty perfect again. The Central Division heavy hitters are the toughest top-three team to pin down because they're so dominant in their own ways. The Wild have the whimsical vibe, the Jets have their historic start, the Stars are defensive juggernauts and have been dominant for years. Any of these three will round out the top three, and your guess is as good as mine as to how it will shake out. The Wild and the Jets are currently tied with 36 points, as the Stars have clawed back up to 32.
Pacific Division First Place: Vegas Golden Knights
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Jack Eichel is off to his career-best start, and the Golden Knights look just as good. Tomas Hertl has been a serious upgrade on the power play, and a healthy Mark Stone is one of the scariest players in the league.
Pacific Division Second Place: Edmonton Oilers
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Uh oh, folks, here they come again. It appears the Oilers are on track to be a spoiler—a team not in a playoff position at Thanksgiving that ends up qualifying for the postseason—yet again. They're 7-2-1 in their last 10, and they've snuck into the first wild-card spot in the West after early struggles. You know they're just going to keep climbing, right?
Pacific Division Third Place: Los Angeles Kings
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It's so hard for me to think anything but "meh" when the L.A. Kings come to mind, and with how they play down to "bad" opponents, you can't blame me. But they show up to games against teams at or above .500, and it's been enough to keep them No. 2 in the West. Perhaps they'll hang onto that spot and prove me wrong, and I'm not saying they won't qualify for the playoffs. They'll make it, but suddenly they're only three points away from dropping to a wild-card position, and I want to see them get the job done against lesser opponents more consistently.
Western Conference First Wild Card: Vancouver Canucks
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We're still trying to figure out exactly what the Vancouver Canucks are, but it's probably a good sign that Kevin Lankinen became the first goaltender in NHL history to start 10-0-0 on the road. Jake DeBrusk also ranks top-10 in goals on the road. Is Rogers Arena just haunted?
Western Conference Second Wild: Colorado Avalanche
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There will be documentaries about the 2024-25 Colorado Avalanche, and I don't think they'll be fun to watch. Still, for all of the implosions, frustrations, and losses, they're hanging on. They've got three players in the top 15 for leaguewide scoring, and they just attempted to resolve their most glaring issue—uh, goaltending—by acquiring backup Scott Wedgewood. We'll see if this can stabilize them a bit.
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