Bleacher Report's 2024-25 Bowl Projections Entering Week 10
Bowl projections are on the verge of becoming very divisive.
Shortly after the Week 10 slate, the College Football Playoff selection committee will unveil its first ranking of the 2024 season. That ranking, for better or worse, is ultimately the only meaningful Top 25.
What's essential to remember, though, is that B/R's projections will not simply be a reflection of the CFP rankings. There are several enormous head-to-head matchups coming our way.
And in Week 10, the main one is Ohio State at Penn State.
Beyond that Big Ten showdown, there are 29 programs with five-win records aiming to join the 33 bowl-eligible teams. We're drawing ever-closer to filling the 82 available postseason slots.
The picks are subjective but based on official tie-ins while observing all selection processes and contingencies.
Group of 5 Games
1 of 5
Camellia Bowl (Dec. 14): Ohio vs. Louisiana
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 17): North Texas vs. Miami (Ohio)
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 18): South Florida vs. Marshall
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 19): Western Kentucky vs. Georgia Southern
Cure Bowl (Dec. 20): Connecticut vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 23): East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Buffalo vs. Colorado State
Hawai'i Bowl (Dec. 24): Liberty vs. Fresno State
68Ventures (Dec. 26): Western Michigan vs. James Madison
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 28): Jacksonville State vs. Texas State
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 28): Toledo vs. San Jose State
Bahamas Bowl (Jan. 4): Sam Houston vs. Northern Illinois
Trending Up: Miami RedHawks
Opening the season with Northwestern, Cincinnati and Notre Dame sent the RedHawks to an 0-3 start. Since then, however, they've recovered with a 4-1 mark, falling only to MAC front-runner Toledo. Miami should be favored to defeat both Ball State and Kent State in the coming weeks, and doing so would make the RedHawks bowl-eligible.
Trending Down: Northern Illinois Huskies
That upset of Notre Dame may as well be a decade ago. Northern Illinois is now in jeopardy of leaving the projections after a crushing last-second loss to Ball State. NIU's margin for error is thin as the team enters November at 4-4 with trips to Western Michigan and Miami.
G5 vs. P4 Matchups
2 of 5
LA Bowl (Dec. 18): UNLV vs. Washington
Detroit Bowl (Dec. 26): Eastern Michigan vs. Michigan State
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 27): Tulane vs. West Virginia
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28): Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Military Bowl (Dec. 28): Navy vs. Boston College
Independence Bowl (Dec. 28): Army vs. Oregon State
Trending Up: Virginia Tech Hokies
Sure, the Hokies had a bit of good fortune with Georgia Tech missing quarterback Haynes King last weekend. Nevertheless, if Virginia Tech can stack a win over GT with a victory at Syracuse, the Hokies will likely be nudged to a bowl against power-conference opponent.
Trending Down: Michigan State Spartans
If the Spartans upset Indiana or Illinois, their postseason chances will sharply rise. If not, though, MSU will be looking at the reality of needing to beat Purdue and Rutgers to make a bowl. The good news is both matchups are at home. The bad news is MSU might be an underdog to Rutgers.
Power 4 Bowls, Part 1
3 of 5
Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20): Cal vs. South Carolina
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 26): Rutgers vs. Texas Tech
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27): North Carolina vs. Oklahoma
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 27): Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27): SMU vs. Washington State
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 27): Colorado vs. Ole Miss
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28): Georgia Tech vs. Michigan
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28): Syracuse vs. BYU
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28): Kansas State vs. USC
Trending Up: North Carolina Tar Heels
Saturday's clash at Virginia effectively decided which team would be included in this week's update. Well, the Tar Heels won it emphatically with a 41-14 rout. Mack Brown's tenure might end after the year anyway, but a bowl-game sendoff would be welcomed. The final month includes Florida State, Wake Forest, Boston College and NC State, so 4-4 UNC certainly has a good opportunity to land two wins.
Trending Down: Texas Tech Red Raiders
Not only has Texas Tech dropped two straight games, but the schedule is also about to get tougher. This weekend, the Red Raiders travel to unbeaten Iowa State. After that, Texas Tech hosts an improving Colorado team. Bowl eligibility should be in the future for 5-3 Tech, but perhaps only barely.
Power 4 Bowls, Part 2
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Music City Bowl (Dec. 30): Wisconsin vs. LSU
ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31): Iowa vs. Missouri
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31): Duke vs. Arizona State
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Illinois vs. Alabama
Texas Bowl (Dec. 31): TCU vs. Arkansas
Gator Bowl (Jan. 2): Pitt vs. Texas A&M
First Responder (Jan. 3): Minnesota vs. Baylor
Mayo Bowl (Jan. 3): Louisville vs. Nebraska
Trending Up: Minnesota Golden Gophers
Be careful about penning Minnesota into a bowl despite the team hitting five victories with a blowout of Maryland. Down the stretch, the Gophers travel to Illinois and Rutgers before hosting Penn State and going to rival Wisconsin. It's plausible that Minnesota will finish 5-7. Obviously, however, the Gophers are in a decent spot.
Trending Down: Missouri Tigers
November is still favorable for Mizzou, which closes the campaign home to Oklahoma, at both South Carolina and Mississippi State and home to Arkansas. Given that, the 6-2 Tigers may rattle off a 4-0 month. Regardless, it's hard to see Missouri having any sort of CFP appeal after a pair of 30-point losses to Texas A&M and Alabama.
College Football Playoff
5 of 5
First-Round Byes
The five highest-ranked conference champions (*) will automatically earn a CFP berth, and the four highest-ranked of that group will be placed in the quarterfinals. While this quartet is assumed to be from the Power 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC), that's not guaranteed.
No. 1: Oregon*, Big Ten champion in Rose Bowl
No. 2 Georgia*, SEC champion in Sugar Bowl
No. 3: Clemson*, ACC champion in Peach Bowl
No. 4: Iowa State*, Big 12 champion in Fiesta Bowl
First-Round Games
No. 12 Boise State* (MWC champion) at No. 5 Texas (winner to Fiesta Bowl)
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Ohio State (winner to Peach Bowl)
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Penn State (winner to Sugar Bowl)
No. 9 Miami at No. 8 Notre Dame (winner to Rose Bowl)
Trending Up: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
I suspect 7-1 Notre Dame not playing in a conference championship will be helpful. Several teams ranked ahead of the Irish—or even simply around them—either have a head-to-head matchup in November or would be destined to play in a league title game if both keep winning. Notre Dame should have a reasonable CFP resume, even at 10-2.
Game to Watch: Ohio State at Penn State
The impact of this showdown is simple: While the winner will not be locked into the Big Ten Championship Game, it's highly unlikely the loser will be going to Indianapolis. I'm bummed the White Out isn't a night game, but the atmosphere for Saturday's noon ET kickoff will be electric.
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