Week 9 NFL Picks 2024: Early Odds to Exploit after Final Week 8 Results
The 2024 NFL season had a few weeks without chaos, but the shenanigans returned in Week 7.
Just when we were starting to get a handle on which teams were good and which were truly bad, the league delivered another schedule full of upsets and surprises. It started early with the Los Angeles Rams' Thursday night upset of the Minnesota Vikings.
Of course, with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the lineup for Los Angeles, the Rams' win didn't feel like a massive upset. Wins by the New England Patriots and Cleveland Browns, however, did.
Avoiding all of the upsets in Week 9 won't be easy, but we've identified a few early lines worth considering.
*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook
Raiders +7.5 at Bengals
1 of 3
The Cincinnati Bengals should be a much better team than the Las Vegas Raiders. They have just one more win than Las Vegas, though, and are now desperate to salvage their season.
"We're not good enough, so we've got to get better," Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow told reporters after Sunday's 37-17 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Bengals should get back in the win column against the Raiders this week, but they probably won't win by more than a touchdown. Cincinnati's 24th-ranked defense is a complete liability, and Las Vegas, for all its flaws, can move the ball.
Davante Adams is long gone, but the Raiders have two potent pass-catchers in Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers.
The Raiders also have a knack for back-door covers, something they've provided in each of the past two weeks. If Las Vegas can hold the Kansas City Chiefs and their vaunted defense to a touchdown margin, it can do the same against the Bengals.
As Burrow said, the Bengals aren't good enough. The Raiders are worse, but a blowout feels incredibly unlikely.
Vikings -6 Versus Colts
2 of 3
With standout left tackle Christian Darrisaw (knee) out for the season, we're about to discover just how good Sam Darnold can be. The Vikings signal-caller has played extremely well for most of the season but struggled against late pressure on Thursday night.
Even if Darnold isn't in top form against the Indianapolis Colts, though, Minnesota should win fairly convincingly. Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is one of the most inconsistent passers in the league—he was 10-of-32 against the Houston Texans in Week 8—and the Vikings defense been most vulnerable to the pass.
Indy's defense, meanwhile, has been flat-out bad. The Colts have allowed an average of 4.5 yards per carry, 6.7 net yards per pass attempt and 380 yards per game.
The Vikings should be able to open up a big lead by leaning on Aaron Jones and the running game while hitting the occasional big play with Justin Jefferson in the passing game. It's hard to envision Richardson, who is still in the process of learning the quarterback position, keeping pace on the scoreboard.
Buccaneers +8.5 at Chiefs
3 of 3
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers really go into Kansas City and hand Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs their first loss of 2024? Probably not. However, this is a huge line considering how both teams have operated to this point.
The Chiefs are now a defense-first team, and while having a top-tier defense has kept them undefeated, they've been content to grind out low-scoring games. Kansas City has only won by more than a touchdown twice this year—against the injury-hampered San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints.
The Buccaneers are dealing with injuries too and won't have receivers Mike Evans (hamstring) or Chris Godwin (ankle, out for season) in this matchup. However, Baker Mayfield and the Bucs proved in Week 8 that they can find offense without their top two pass-catchers.
In a 31-26 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, Tampa tallied 330 passing yards and 432 total yards. A pair of interceptions from Mayfield proved to be the deciding factor.
While turnovers are becoming a concern for the Bucs, they've been a problem for Kansas City too. Mahomes has thrown at least one pick in every game, and that has kept most games closer than they probably should be.
Expect the Week 9 finale to be another close one.
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