How Bad Is It Really? Assessing 5 Bad Starts Around the NHL

The NHL season is currently 6-10 games deep depending on which team you're paying attention to. It's hard enough to judge a team off a sample size of fewer than 15 games, and it's even harder when there's such a variance in games played from team to team.

That said, this is when the red flags start rearing their heads to say, "Hello, how are you? I'm going to keep you up at night for the next month while you wonder if I'm going to totally destroy your team, or if I'm going to be something to laugh at later."

Remember when the 2016-17 Predators started the season 2-5-1 and made it to the Stanley Cup Final? Remember when the 2018-19 Blues were sitting at last in the league at 15-18-4 and went on to win it all? Remember when Devils fans chanted "Fire Lindy" after a 0-2 start, and then the team proceeded to go 16 for 17? To be fair, Lindy was fired, but not for that!

The point is, you never really know when a poor start means a poor season, and that's part of the fun. Let's take a look at some of the most concerning starts to the 2024-25 season and try to figure out who's Actually Bad.

Edmonton Oilers

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Connor McDavid

Edmonton's 2-4-1 start to the season has exposed potential flaws all over the ice, most flagrantly on defense. But you'll recall the Oilers had such a terrible start to the 2023-24 season that they fired a coach, and they ended up one game away from winning the Stanley Cup.

Is this more of the same deal? It depends if they can outscore their sluggish defense, execute a ridiculous amount on the power play, and get an outstanding goaltending performance from Stuart Skinner again.

Right now, there's a bit of a shooting percentage problem and unluckiness with the top scorers' chances, and that'll highlight defensive issues every time on such an offense-heavy team. The Oilers have an entirely uncharacteristic two goals per game average, just barely ahead of the Sharks for the league-worst average. Meanwhile, they own the sixth-worst goals against average at 3.86, which might be fine if they were acting like their usual, high-scoring selves.

Well, they sort of are, with an average of 32.4 shots per game, so there's our trouble—shooting percentage, accuracy, and the best players slumping. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl both have three goals apiece in seven games, and we know they're capable of much more. From there, Jeff Skinner and Brett Kulak are the only other players with more than one goal. Zach Hyman and Viktor Arvidsson have yet to register a point in seven games, and Corey Perry and Adam Henrique have one goal apiece.

A team that relies so heavily on offensive production tends to lend itself to slumps, and the Oilers have gone through them in the past and came out fine on the other side. But Hyman completely disappearing for seven straight games is at least raising an eyebrow, as he netted 54 last season and was an integral part of the team. His underlying stats are consistent with the Oilers at large, though—he's shooting enough, and he's even getting some solid chances, but he seems to be running into hot goalies and bad luck. Give it time, but the Oilers need goals going in from everyone if they're to get away with the defensive lapses.

Are the Oilers Actually Bad?: No, but they can't start expecting too much out of their defense.

Colorado Avalanche

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Cale Makar.

The Avalanche appear to be bouncing back from their 0-4 start, riding a four-game win streak that has them breaking even and making the proper adjustments to return to the level we've expected from them.

Colorado has played teams like the Sharks and the Ducks to climb back up—you gotta start somewhere—and their 5-1 win over Utah on Thursday was a statement. Devon Toews has returned to give the defense a much-needed boost, and the vibes are improving all around, but should we forgive and forget the calamity of the season's start so soon?

The Avalanche surrendered eight goals to the Golden Knights, five goals to the Bruins, six to the Blue Jackets, and six to the Islanders before this current stretch. The problem was as clear as it's ever going to get: The Avs were allowing a high number of high-danger shots, and the goaltending was not up to the task. Alexandar Georgiev has started five games, has a 4.99 goals against average, and has failed to end any game with a save percentage above .861.

Since then, Justus Annunen has swept in and saved the day recently, winning all three of his starts. He had a .962 save percentage against San Jose, a .926 against Seattle, and a .962 against Utah.

Because the problem was so blatantly goalie-focused, and because the problem has drastically reduced with Annunen in net, you can be far less concerned about the Avalanche than you were last week. Even if Annunen doesn't pan out, at least the problem is identified and can be rectified, which is often more than half of the battle in the NHL.

Are the Avalanche Actually Bad?: Give me a 10-game sample size out of Annunen, and I'll get back to you. But he looks awesome, and it feels like enough to deem Colorado Not Actually Bad.

Philadelphia Flyers

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Samuel Ersson.

The good news? Matvei Michkov has been a revelation for the Flyers' power play, which was the worst in the league last season. He's been a joy to watch, leading the team with three goals and seven points in seven games, and creating much-needed plays.

The bad news? Goaltending started out on an unexpectedly positive note and has been declining ever since. As it stands, Samuel Ersson's got a 3.22 goals against average and a .886 save percentage in five games. Ivan Fedotov's got a 5.35 goal against average and a .823 save percentage in three games.

Overall, the Flyers are 1-5-1 and dead last in the Metropolitan Division. Although not many thought they were going to come out and win the Stanley Cup this year, playoff hopes had been buzzing between the youth movement, Michkov's debut, and the good vibes generated from last year's step forward. It's not looking so hot on that front seven games in.

Are the Flyers Actually Bad?: Probably, and it's not that big of a deal. Let the kids stew a bit longer, figure out the franchise goaltending situation, and then they'll be a serious team.

Nashville Predators

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Steven Stamkos.

No one on this list conjures up a "yikes!" quite like the 1-5-0 Nashville Predators.

Between last season's valiant win streak that punched their ticket to the playoffs, the Juuse Saros extension, and brilliant-seeming offseason acquisitions like Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei, the Predators were supposed to be one of the most exciting early teams. Instead, they were the last team in the league to earn a standings point and sit at the bottom of the Central Division at 1-5-0.

How did we get here?

It might be the newness of so many separate parts looking to jell together. Stamkos, who only has one goal in six games, has only ever played for the Lightning. Marchessault, who also has one goal, was comfortable in his role in Vegas, and Skjei (1-1-3) is coming from a unique system in Carolina.

Skjei has been bopping around the lineup on all three pairings, but he hasn't quite figured it out yet, with several blatant gaffes that have led to several wide-open Saroses.

We might look back and chalk all of Nashville's early struggles up to the number of new pieces expected to play huge roles on the team. The gut says that's the most obvious explanation, but they've gotta get out of this hole fast and catch up in the standings if they want to thrive in the Western Conference.

Are the Predators Actually Bad?: They need more time to mesh together, but I can't say I'm confident in a turnaround unless the system is adaptable.

Boston Bruins

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Jeremy Swayman.

The Bruins have been hard to get a handle on for a few years now, and the feeling persists with their 3-4-1 start to the 2024-25 season and current three-game skid.

Tuesday's clunker, a 4-0 loss (with Jeremy Swayman in net) that awarded the Predators their first win of the season, was cause for legit alarm in a market full of pre-mature panic. Thursday's 5-2 loss to the Stars didn't help.

Basically, it was cute and fun that the fourth line kept producing until it wasn't so fun and cute. Now you're eight games deep and rookie Cole Koepke is leading the team with six points in seven games. Koepke, Mark Kastelic, and Johnny Beecher are actually the only forwards on the team who have managed positive plus-minus ratings.

Meanwhile, there've been quite a few rookie mistakes from veterans like Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Charlie Coyle. There's been silence on offense from the rest of the squad expected to chip in.

At least Swayman has been doing relatively fine in net, with 1.1 goals saved above expected, a 2.99 goals against average, and a save percentage of .904 in six starts. His new partner Joonas Korpisalo? Not so much, but it takes a top-five goaltender to conceal some of these Bruins errors, and Boston used to have two of those.

Are the Bruins Actually Bad?: Not even their latest point-per-game rookie of the year could save them at the beginning of this season? They might be in actual trouble this time around. In all seriousness, it's simple: They used to have two elite goaltenders, now they've got one and fewer offensive weapons. I know we're all expecting the Bruins to just Be The Bruins, but it gets harder each year.