UFC 307: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions
Last time the UFC was in Salt Lake City, Leon Edwards knocked out Kamaru Usman in one of the biggest upsets of 2022. This Saturday, the promotion is back in town with UFC 307, an event that looks like it could provide some similarly memorable moments.
The main event will see Alex Pereira defend the light heavyweight title against a fellow knockout artist in Khalil Rountree. It might not be the most obvious matchup—the title shot probably should have gone to Magomed Ankalaev—but it should be a great fight.
There will also be a title up for grabs in the co-main event when Raquel Pennington defends the bantamweight title against former champ Julianna Peña. It's not the most anticipated fight in the division's history, but it should clear the way for some very exciting matchups.
Before we get to the title fights, MMA legend Jose Aldo will take on rising contender Mario Bautista at bantamweight. The main card will be kicked off by a middleweight fight between Romand Dolidze against Kevin Holland, and a bantamweight fight between Kayla Harrison and Ketlen Vieira.
Here's how the B/R combat sports squad sees it all playing out.
Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree
1 of 5
Haris Kruskic: I'm a big fan of Khalil Rountree and think he's one of the most entertaining fighters on the roster. However, even I didn't think he was headed for a title shot after his win over Anthony Smith and wished he could've climbed the ladder a little more just to sharpen his skills against the top light heavyweight contenders.
It's too late for that now, though. Alex Pereira's death stare will face him from across the octagon, and there's no way I can pick against 'Poatan' given the circumstances and the pedigree of competition he's left in his wake.
Give me Pereira in typical knockout fashion.
Prediction: Pereira by KO, Rd. 1
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I appreciate how the company and the analysts are building this one up—and I concede there's at least a chance it could be compelling—but it smells a lot more like a search-and-destroy mission for the champion against a guy who'll be there to get hit.
Prediction: Pereira by TKO, Rd. 1
Tom Taylor: We know exactly what we're getting with this fight. Pereira and Rountree are two of the most explosive strikers in MMA right now, and odds are, one of them is getting knocked out.
Pereira's kickboxing background makes him an obvious favorite in a matchup like this, but I'm calling an upset. Both guys are going to be firing heavy artillery, and I think Rountree is going to hit his target first. Call it a feeling, a hunch. And new.
Prediction: Rountree by KO, Rd. 1
Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña
2 of 5
Haris Kruskic: Raquel Pennington has been one of the most underrated fighters in the women's division for a while now. A six-fight win streak across any weight class in the division is hard to do, and she found her pocket as a calculated striker who doesn't make mistakes.
That can take any fighter a long way, even to gold.
I'm not sold on Julianna Peña, however. A win over Amanda Nunes greatly inflates her bang-average resume, and she's done herself no favors waiting over two years to compete again after losing the rematch.
Expect Pennington to point her way to a title defense.
Prediction: Pennington by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Big agreement with Haris as it relates to Peña. The win over Nunes was historic and cannot be dismissed. But it reads a lot more like a one-off than a trend these days given how absent she's been in the aftermath. Pennington isn't Nunes, but she's capable and hot and gets the automatic improvement that comes with being a champion.
Prediction: Pennington by split decision
Tom Taylor: Pennington and Peña are both great bantamweights, but they're not generally must-see TV. They're both decent strikers and effective grapplers who rarely get the finish, and it's likely this fight will turn out to be a slow-paced, back-and-forth boxing and wrestling fest.
I expect both women to win rounds, but Pennington to win more, and ultimately the decision. Then she'll lose to Kayla Harrison.
Prediction: Pennington by unanimous decision
José Aldo vs. Mario Bautista
3 of 5
Haris Kruskic: My heart is saying legend José Aldo, but my head is saying younger, hungrier, more agile Mario Bautista.
I'll chalk this one up to a matchup nightmare for Aldo who struggles against wrestling-heavy opponents.
Prediction: Bautista by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I'm not one to suggest a guy with the pedigree of a José Aldo ought to retire. But come on, isn't it time that Aldo retires? Bautista probably won't be a champion, let alone one on the level Aldo was, but he's betéer now than Aldo is now.
Prediction: Bautista by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: I'll ask again: why isn't Jose Aldo fighting Dominick Cruz? Why isn't he fighting Henry Cejudo? I don't really know why he's being matched up with young contenders in the final chapter of his career. It feels like a waste, but I digress.
Aldo looked incredible in his recent fight with Jonathan Martinez—genuinely as good as he ever has. He is a truly special fighter, and while Bautista has a bright future, he's not going to be on Aldo's level.
Prediction: Aldo by unanimous decision
Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira
4 of 5
Haris Kruskic: This is clearly a title eliminator to determine who fights the winner of Pennington-Peña next. Ketlen Vieira has been a mainstay near the top of the division for years now, but her results have been mixed. Kayla Harrison hopes to cement her spot as the top contender in the division with the biggest win of her career, and I think she'll do just that in dominant fashion.
Prediction: Harrison by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: It's Kayla Harrison's world these days, and we're all just living in it. She's clearly on a fast track to be the promotion's leading female, and Vieira provides a strong test with a recognizable name who'll be an obstacle that can be overcome with something less than significant difficulty.
Prediction: Harrison by TKO, Round 2
Tom Taylor: I didn't believe Kayla Harrison would be able to make the bantamweight limit for her UFC 300 fight with Holly Holm, but she did it and looked incredible in the fight. There is no question in my mind that she's the best fighter in the division. Vieira might provide a bit of resistance on the feet, but Harrison handles her on the mat and gets the finish.
Prediction: Harrison by TKO, Rd. 2
Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland
5 of 5
Haris Kruskic: Roman Dolidze drops back down to middleweight after a light heavyweight win vs. Anthony Smith in June. He'll take on Kevin Holland, who moved back up from welterweight to defeat Michal Oleksiejczuk earlier this year.
This is an intriguing scrap, but I think Dolidze's strength advantage adds up and he catches Holland.
Prediction: Dolidze by TKO, Rd. 3
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I like Holland a lot, and it'll be hard to forget his star-making turn during the COVID era. But it's been pretty up and down since then, and another move to middleweight against a guy who's recently been performing at 205 doesn't seem like a great recipe for success. He'll have his moments and get some opportunities to play to the crowd, but it doesn't seem like a win from here.
Prediction: Dolidze by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: I'm not crazy about this fight. At his best, Kevin Holland is one of the most exciting fighters in MMA, but we know all it takes to beat him is takedowns. Dolidze should be able to follow that blueprint. It won't be pretty, but he'll keep Holland pinned to the mat for the bulk of 15 minutes.
Prediction: Dolidze by unanimous decision
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