B/R College Football 2024 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 6
We begin with a story, and your reaction to this story will depend quite predictably on what side you had.
Deep into Saturday night, Boise State was on its way to a cozy victory over Washington State, thanks largely to the absurdity of running back Ashton Jeanty. The total for this game closed at a robust 66 points, and the score was 24-10 as the fourth quarter began.
If you bet the under, you were already contemplating what you were going to do with that money. You had big plans for it.
Then, Washington State scored a touchdown. Then, Boise State scored three more touchdowns in a span of nine minutes. Then, with the game already decided and the clock dwindling away, the Cougars scored with 19 seconds remaining.
Under bettors, I am so, so sorry. You deserved better.
As if we needed reminding, winning can sometimes be hard. That has been a theme all season for these picks, and a 3-4 showing last week didn't help. For the year, we're 20-27. (Also, it's painful to type that.)
Loyal readers of this longtime B/R staple know that things will turn. Before we do finally turn them, however, let's go through the good and bad from the week that was.
The Good: Kansas State (-4.5) vs. Oklahoma State: Although the game was tight in the first half, the Kansas State running game could not be stopped. The Wildcats, one week removed from a blowout loss, looked plenty recovered here.
The Bad: UCF (-14) vs. Colorado: The point spread stuck out the moment it was made available. It felt like a strong stance on UCF, so I took the bait. Colorado, however, had other plans, winning by 27. In a word...yikes.
With those acknowledged, onwards. Here are this week's picks.
For the latest spreads on futures and games, head to DraftKings.
North Carolina (+3) vs. Pittsburgh
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One team is unbeaten. The other is finding exciting new ways to lose football games each and every week.
Guess which one we like?
Here's what North Carolina has done the last two weeks. First, they gave up 70 points to James Madison. Then, more recently, the Tar Heels blew a 20-0 lead to Duke and ultimately lost 21-20.
There have been some good things this year. There have also been some bad.
Pittsburgh has yet to taste failure in 2024, coming in at 4-0. The Panthers handled Youngstown State and Kent State with ease. They beat Cincinnati and West Virginia by a combined five points.
A win is a win, although it's safe to wonder how these close calls will translate over time.
On the road for the second time this year, Pittsburgh will take on a desperate football team. And despite how ugly that loss to JMU was, North Carolina is poised to finally break this ugly streak in earnest.
Georgia Tech (-8.5) vs. Duke
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Speaking of Duke, we're betting that Georgia Tech will handle the Blue Devils by double digits this weekend. Normally we save this kind of declaration for the last paragraph, although we feel pretty good about this.
Why wait?
Duke should feel very good about its perfect 5-0 start. On top of North Carolina, the Blue Devils have also beaten Northwestern and UConn. It's not exactly a stacked 5-0, but it's better than most can say.
With that firmly acknowledged, this feels like an ugly matchup. Georgia Tech has two losses, although losing at Syracuse and at Louisville aren't exactly bad losses. This team showed plenty of heart in both games, and QB Haynes King has been a force.
Coming off a bye, this is an excellent spot that comes with an aggressive line. Don't be shocked when the Yellow Jackets win by more than two touchdowns.
Washington (-2.5) vs. Michigan
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Not terribly long ago, these two teams were among the final four competing for a national championship.
Many months later, both have new head coaches, new quarterbacks, completely rebuilt rosters and new expectations regarding success.
For Washington, things are in a weird place. The Huskies lost to Rutgers after a long flight in Week 5, although they did so despite finishing with 521 yards of offense. Those 521 yards amounted to only 18 points, which is actually quite difficult to do.
Michigan, meanwhile, won another football game despite throwing for only 86 yards. Currently, the Wolverines have the nation's No. 130-ranked passing offense.
That's not ideal, and neither is playing at Washington—a brutal place to play—for your first road game of the year. For a team struggling to manufacture consistent offense, this is hugely concerning.
Michigan's defense will keep it in games, but the signs are concerning. Washington returns home in style, taking down a top-10 team.
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Texas A&M (-2) vs. Missouri
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Before the season began, Missouri had the look and feel of one of the most interesting, fun teams in college football.
To be clear, that proclamation hasn't fallen off a cliff. Missouri is unbeaten and still in a position to recreate last year's success. Barely beating Boston College and Vanderbilt in consecutive games, however, has injected some doubt into the mix.
Playing at Texas A&M should inject more. The Aggies are quietly 4-1, with the lone loss coming to Notre Dame. Mike Elko's team hasn't played an overwhelming schedule, although wins over Florida and Arkansas are nice early on.
Mizzou has yet to play on the road, and this is one heck of an environment to see how a team will acclimate—particularly one that is clearly not firing on all cylinders. While the Tigers could figure things out in time, nothing is a guarantee.
Texas A&M is a seasoned team, especially considering its only Week 6. That seasoning pays off in a big way.
Iowa State (-12) vs. Baylor
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This is not the kind of game we normally get involved in, although sometimes you must trust the eyes more than you analyze the numbers.
Last week, we bet Baylor. We felt good about Baylor. The Bears fell behind BYU early, made a valiant comeback and then ultimately folded at home.
The body language? If we're being honest with each other, it wasn't great. While I am in no position to question the effort of a college football team, one can't help but look at how this team played for much of last week.
At 2-3, one can't help but wonder how much head coach Dave Aranda has left. And playing at Iowa State—an underrated environment—is not an ideal development. The Cyclones are unbeaten, have the nation's No. 4 scoring defense and have an emerging QB in Rocco Becht.
Even with all of Baylor's issues, Iowa State would be a problem. This week, on the heels of yet another loss, all signs point to trouble.
Other Games on the Card
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Northern Illinois (-17) vs. UMass
The Huskies' season has been a wild ride, headlined by a win over Notre Dame. Regardless of how we got here, handling a UMass team that has spent most of the season on the road shouldn't be a problem.
Stanford (+8.5) vs. Virginia Tech
The Hokies are coming off a heartbreaking loss, and their reward is a cross-country trip against a team that has spent the last few weeks on the road. Virginia Tech started the year with high hopes, although it's clear those expectations should be adjusted.
Louisville (-7) vs. SMU
Although Louisville could not get past Notre Dame after a fast start, all hope isn't lost. The Cardinals should get right against SMU, a sneaky-good game in a week light on meaningful matchups.
Old Dominion (+5.5) vs. Coastal Carolina
Yes, Old Dominion is 1-3. But those three losses have come to competitive teams. While traveling to Coastal Carolina won't be easy, this line says a lot. This game should be close until the very end.
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