Week 4 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Advice for Unfavorable Fantasy Football Matchups
It's been an odd start to the 2024 NFL season, to say the least. The Cincinnati Bengals are 0-3, the Minnesota Vikings (now featuring Sam Darnold!) are 3-0, and the Carolina Panthers just found an offensive spark from the ageless Andy Dalton.
Upsets and injuries have been themes of the early season too, and this has leaked into the world of fantasy football. We've seen past fantasy stars underwhelm, miss time or fail to take the field at all.
Managers are still waiting for the 2024 debuts of Puka Nacua and Christian McCaffrey, who opened the season on injured reserve.
On top of everything, we still don't know which teams are actually good, which are bad or which are simply doing some unexpected opening-month imitations. The unsettled landscape has left managers with frequent difficult lineup decisions, and the trend won't end in Week 4.
This week some managers will have no choice but to start players in unfavorable matchups. You'll find a few start-sit recommendations based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring here.
Start: QB Lamar Jackson vs. Buffalo Bills
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The Baltimore Ravens will host the Buffalo Bills in what should be one of the most electric matchups of the weekend. The Ravens didn't win their first game until Week 3, but they won the AFC's No. 1 seed last year and have the reigning MVP in Lamar Jackson.
The Bills, meanwhile, are a 3-0 squad that features a defense that continues to play well despite injuries.
Buffalo ranks eighth in total defense and seventh in points allowed. It has also surrendered the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. It's a tough matchup for Jackson, to be sure, but managers shouldn't be afraid to start him.
Jackson's scrambling ability gives him a floor that most other QBs don't have, and he can post solid numbers, even against a good defense. Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is a similar dual-threat, and while he only threw for 162 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo in Week 1, he also rushed for 57 yards.
Sit: Patrick Mahomes at Los Angeles Chargers
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While Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes certainly can scramble, his floor as a runner is usually limited. However, he's traditionally been a reliable fantasy option because of his consistency.
This season, though, Mahomes hasn't been nearly as dependable. The Chiefs are 3-0, but their quarterback has yet to reach 300 passing yards in a game. While he has thrown five touchdown passes, he's also thrown four interceptions with at least one pick every week.
This week, Kansas City will visit the rival Los Angeles Chargers and their improved defense. The Chargers rank 10th in net yards per pass attempt allowed, have surrendered just two passing touchdowns and have logged three interceptions.
Los Angeles has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
While Mahomes may end up with a respectable yardage total in L.A., it feels unlikely that he'll throw multiple touchdown passes or escape without another turnover.
Start: RB James Cook at Baltimore Ravens
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The aforementioned Bills-Ravens matchup promises to be fun because of its quarterback matchup. Jackson is the reigning MVP, while Buffalo's Josh Allen appears to be this year's early front-runner.
Allen may also have to carry the Bills offense in Baltimore. The Ravens rank first in yards per carry allowed and first in rushing yards allowed. They've also surrendered the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.
None of this sounds ideal for Bills running back James Cook, and indeed it's not. However, the third-year star should still have a decent outing in this marquee matchup.
Cook (9 targets, 8 receptions through three weeks) is regularly used in the passing game, and that gives him a high floor in PPR leagues. If the Bills do struggle to run, they're likely to augment their ground game with swing passes and screens, which will help Cook rack up a few yards.
And if Buffalo can get into the end zone, Cook (4 touchdowns in three games) may find the end zone. While Baltimore's defense has limited big runs, it has surrendered four rushing touchdowns.
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Sit: RB Zach Charbonnet at Detroit Lions
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Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet, who has at least two receptions in every game this season, also has a decent PPR floor. However, he a risky play in Week 4 for a couple of reasons.
For one, Seattle is set to visit the Detroit Lions, who have a fantastic run defense. Detroit ranks fourth in yards per carry and has allowed just two rushing touchdowns this season. Unsurprisingly, the Lions have also allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Secondly, the Seahawks may have starting tailback Kenneth Walker III back in the lineup after a two-week absence. Walker missed the last two games with an oblique injury, which gave Charbonnet the bulk of the backfield work. However, Walker returned to practice this week and appears on track to play on Monday night.
When Walker was on the field in Week 1, Charbonnet did find the end zone, but he also saw just 10 touches and 41 scrimmage yards.
Charbonnet is a touchdown-dependent option this week, and that's not what managers should want in a matchup with Detroit.
Start: WR Tyreek Hill vs. Tennessee Titans
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Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill saw his fantasy stock take a hit when starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa landed on injured reserve with a concussion. With Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle under center last week, Hill caught just three passes for 40 yards.
Miami is also set to host a Tennessee Titans team that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers.
Still, the prediction here is that the Dolphins see improved quarterback play in Week 4, possibly from the recently signed Tyler Huntley—though head coach Mike McDaniel has not named a starter.
"It's a little premature for a multitude of reasons and the very last being the competitive advantage piece," McDaniel said, per Isaiah Smalls II of the Miami Herald.
Managers should also expect a stronger effort from McDaniel to put the ball in Hill's hands. That could include receiver runs, bubble screens and far more targets than the five Hill saw in Week 3.
Sit: WR Adam Thielen vs. Bengals
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Wideout Adam Thielen (103 catches, 1,014 yards, 4 TDs) was essentially the only start-worthy fantasy option on the Panthers roster last season. However, the additions of Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette have affected his fantasy stock.
Thielen did find the end zone in Dalton's first start, but he still only finished with five targets, three receptions and 40 yards. Johnson, meanwhile saw a whopping 14 targets and finished with eight catches for 122 yards and a score.
Legette (3 targets) and Jonathan Mingo (4 targets) were nearly as prevalent in the game plan as Thielen. In other words, with Bryce Young out of the lineup, the ball is no longer being forced in Thielen's direction.
This makes Thielen a touchdown-dependent option against a Cincinnati Bengals defense looking to rebound from Monday night's poor performance. While the Bengals allowed Washington Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels to have a nearly flawless performance on Monday, they have done a decent job of slowing opposing receivers.
Cincinnati has allowed the eight-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts in 2024.
*Fantasy scoring information from FantasyPros.
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