B/R College Football 2024 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 5
Sometimes, the difference between a winning week and a losing week is a glorified bad beat following a multi-hour weather delay.
Or, maybe it's a Hail Mary at the end of regulation. Or, maybe it's a forced fumble at the goal line in overtime following a Hail Mary.
All these moments happened in a stretch of 90-or-so minutes on Saturday night. None of them were good for the ol' debit account.
If you're going to wager on college football—and wager we shall—you must have the tolerance for moments like these. Regardless, the end result was a 4-5 record in Week 4, leaving us at 17-23 on the year.
The week featured some good moments. It also featured some not-so-good. Here's a look at both before we pick some winners.
The Good: BYU (+6.5) vs. Kansas State: It came at the end of Saturday night, and it came easy. BYU dominated the ranked Wildcats at home, and this one was truly never in doubt. We have plenty of thoughts about both teams this week as well.
The Bad: Coastal Carolina (+3.5) vs. Virginia: While the bet mentioned above never felt in doubt, this one never felt like it had a chance. Coastal Carolina fell behind early, and that was essentially that. Onwards.
Here are our picks for Week 5.
For the latest spreads on futures and games, head to DraftKings.
Baylor (-3) vs. BYU
1 of 6
If you bet Baylor last week against Colorado, and this writer did just that, you lost a bet in a way you probably haven't before.
The Bears went ahead of the Buffaloes only to give up a Hail Mary as time expired to tie the game. They then fumbled at the goal line in overtime to lose outright. (They also nearly gave up a Hail Mary before giving up an actual Hail Mary.)
It was not fun.
BYU, as referenced above, was a great deal of fun. The Cougars demolished Kansas State at home, looking the part on both sides of the ball. While some of our picks were a wild ride last week, there was nothing wild about this one.
Both BYU and Baylor endured emotional Saturdays, although success, as strange as that sounds, can be far more debilitating a week later. And having to go on the road one week after a massive home victory will also be a dramatic change.
For all it did wrong against Colorado, Baylor did a lot right. Now, the Bears can get right as a favorite against a ranked team. Don't fall for the bait.
Kansas State (-4.5) vs. Oklahoma State
2 of 6
Although Kansas State looked utterly helpless last week, memories in college football should be short.
Sometimes, football games spiral out of control. One bad play becomes another, and the entire foundation collapses from there. That doesn't necessarily mean a team is bad, no matter what the score says.
A week after fading K-State, we're buying again.
For as rough as Saturday was for the Wildcats, it wasn't exactly kind to Oklahoma State. The Pokes lost outright at home to a Utah team playing without Cam Rising, its finest player. Now, it must hit the road to play in a brutal environment.
Indeed, home field means a lot. Just ask BYU. Kansas State responds in a big way with a big win.
Appalachian State (+3.5) vs. Liberty
3 of 6
What was the team that cost me money after a long weather delay? That would be Liberty.
East Carolina was in a fine position to cover the spread last week. Then the fourth quarter happened. The Flames ultimately covered the spread, although all is not well.
While Liberty entered the year as one of the favorites to make the College Football Playoff as a Group of Five team, the results haven't exactly been dazzling. As a result, Liberty is only a short favorite despite going up against a 2-2 team.
App State has had a handful of clunkers this season, which makes this spread that much more interesting. In fact, the Mountaineers flat-out didn't show up against South Alabama last weekend. They were also clobbered by Clemson a few weeks prior.
This isn't the best App State team we've seen in recent years, and that's perfectly fine. The home team still finds a way to cover the spread and give Liberty its first loss.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
UCF (-14) vs. Colorado
4 of 6
The Buffaloes aren't boring. No matter how you feel about Colorado and Deion Sanders, there is no shortage of intrigue.
Last week, quarterback Shedeur Sanders connected on a Hail Mary and cornerback/wideout Travis Hunter forced a fumble to win the game in OT. The two biggest stars showed up when the team needed them. And they are very much stars.
A week later, Colorado is now a double-digit underdog on the road. Given the high-profile nature of the Buffaloes' last win, they are likely to draw plenty of action. Not here, though.
Central Florida is 3-0, although the last win didn't come easy. The Knights conquered TCU by just one point—winning on the road is never easy.
Notably, UCF ran for 289 yards, which isn't all that noteworthy if you've been paying attention. UCF currently leads the nation in rushing. Colorado, meanwhile, is No. 83 in rushing defense.
While the Buffs aren't boring, the defense is a work in progress. This seems like a rough combination, especially on the road.
Auburn (+2.5) vs. Oklahoma
5 of 6
Oh, the vibes surrounding this football game aren't great. Let's not bury the lede.
Auburn is coming off a brutal loss to Arkansas at home. Oklahoma is coming off an ugly defeat to Tennessee. The message boards for both teams were great over the weekend.
For Auburn, this season has been nothing short of ugly. Hugh Freeze has issues at quarterback, and those issues are starting to mount. Oklahoma, which came into the season with former 5-star QB Jackson Arnold pegged as the starter, will start Michael Hawkins Jr. this week.
Hawkins came in against Tennessee after Arnold struggled, and he did some good things. Despite that success, this is still a suboptimal situation. Playing at Auburn, no matter how bad the optics have been, will present some challenges.
The oddsmakers certainly see it that way, making Auburn a small home dog despite the team's offensive woes. And the total, which is hovering in the mid 40s, tells us plenty about the game we're about to see.
Auburn wins a close, gross football game.
Other Games on the Card
6 of 6
UAB (+3.5) vs. Navy
These are the kind of spreads we adore. Coming off an enormous win over Memphis, Navy hits the road for the first time. The fact that UAB is only a small underdog despite being 1-2 speaks volumes. Look out for this one.
UConn (-5.5) vs. Buffalo
This has all the makings of a major football hangover. Buffalo, fresh off a fantastic win over Northern Illinois, must now make the trek to UConn. The Huskies are getting plenty of respect from the oddsmakers, and that's good enough for us.
North Carolina (+2.5) at Duke
Indeed, last week was horrendous for North Carolina, which just gave up another touchdown. But the fact that the Tar Heels are such a short underdog to an undefeated team says a lot about how this game should go.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
