College Football 2024: Week 5 Predictions for Every Game
For very good reason, the clash between No. 2 Georgia and No. 4 Alabama is the biggest story of Week 5. The winner of that SEC showdown will basically be penned into the College Football Playoff.
But that is simply one massive game on a great weekend.
Oklahoma State and Kansas State, both coming off a loss, are ready for a battle of early survival in the Big 12. Penn State hosts Illinois in a matchup of unbeaten Big Ten teams, and Louisville travels to Notre Dame for a contest with significant value in the CFP race.
More than a handful of other Top 25 programs are hitting the road for a conference game, too. It's a busy slate around the nation.
Along with a preview of each ranked team, we've predicted every game involving a Football Bowl Subdivision school.
AP Nos. 25-21
1 of 7
Washington State (4-0) at No. 25 Boise State (2-1), 10 p.m. ET
Wazzu has quietly put together a 4-0 start with triumphs over Texas Tech and Washington. Boise State, meanwhile, gave Oregon a real scare in Week 2. If you're able to stay up late, it's worth the watch. I'll lean Boise because of star running back Ashton Jeanty and home-field advantage in what presumably will be a high-scoring affair.
Prediction: Boise State 38, Washington State 33
Arkansas (3-1) vs. No. 24 Texas A&M (3-1), 3:30 p.m. ET (in Arlington)
The victory at Auburn was an enormous boost to Arkansas' hopes of making a bowl. However, the Hogs' remaining slate is a monster—six of their eight opponents are currently ranked—and that stretch begins with a neutral-site clash. Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman will be a game-time decision, but Marcel Reed has been a capable replacement while getting plenty of help from the defense.
Prediction: Texas A&M 27. Arkansas 22
No. 20 Oklahoma State (3-1) at No. 23 Kansas State (3-1), Noon ET
For prediction, see No. 20 Oklahoma State.
No. 22 BYU (4-0) at Baylor (2-2), Noon ET
Apologies for ignoring my brain last week, BYU. It won't happen again. The early kickoff is a slight cause for hesitation, but a sturdy defense should be enough for the unbeaten Cougars on the road.
Prediction: BYU 28, Baylor 20
No. 21 Oklahoma (3-1) at Auburn (2-2), 3:30 p.m. ET
Oklahoma is benching Jackson Arnold in favor of Michael Hawkins Jr., and Auburn's QB situation is also a disaster with a back-and-forth between Payton Thorne and Hank Brown. Both teams have quality defenses, so it'll probably be a low-scoring slog—one that could go either way.
Prediction: Oklahoma 20, Auburn 16
AP Nos. 20-16
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No. 20 Oklahoma State (3-1) at No. 23 Kansas State (3-1), Noon ET
Oklahoma State lost at home to a backup quarterback, and Kansas State laid an egg on the road. Neither team is entering this conference tilt on a positive note. For me, though, the greatest concern is OSU's complete lack of a running game despite bringing back the entire offensive line (and more!) in front of Ollie Gordon II. Until that changes, I'll struggle to pick the Pokes in a competitive game.
Prediction: Kansas State 26, Oklahoma State 20
No. 19 Illinois (4-0) at No. 9 Penn State (3-0), 7:30 p.m. ET
For prediction, see No. 9 Penn State.
No. 18 Iowa State (3-0) at Houston (1-3), 7 p.m. ET
Through four weeks, Houston has mustered just 4.8 yards per snap. That's not an encouraging sign opposite Iowa State, which has yielded only 9.7 points per game in three victories so far.
Prediction: Iowa State 31, Houston 13
Stanford (2-1) at No. 17 Clemson (2-1), 7 p.m. ET
Last weekend, Stanford traveled to Syracuse and stole a Friday night win. Great result for the Cardinal in their ACC opener. Another cross-country trip is on the docket, however, and Clemson will be a more formidable opponent. The main story is whether Clemson QB Cade Klubnik will continue a hot streak as the Tigers work to rebuild their national perception after the rough loss to Georgia.
Prediction: Clemson 44, Stanford 21
No. 15 Louisville (3-0) at No. 16 Notre Dame (3-1), 3:30 p.m. ET
For prediction, see No. 15 Louisville.
AP Nos. 15-11
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No. 15 Louisville (3-0) at No. 16 Notre Dame (3-1), 3:30 p.m. ET
Can the Notre Dame defense keep carrying the team? Transfer quarterback Riley Leonard has trudged to 5.7 yards per attempt and topped out 163 passing yards in his first four appearances with the Fighting Irish. The hosts are favored, but Louisville—which has given up a meager 2.5 yards per carry—is built to beat ND for a second straight year if Leonard isn't more effective as a passer.
Prediction: Louisville 23, Notre Dame 19
South Alabama (2-2) at No. 14 LSU (3-1), 7:45 p.m. ET
Losing star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to a season-ending knee injury will be problematic for LSU later on. This weekend, it shouldn't be a big issue. Given that South Alabama has scored 135 points in the last two games and LSU is dealing with a habit of slow starts, this matchup could be a little more uncomfortable than expected for the hosts.
Prediction: LSU 45, South Alabama 24
Wisconsin (2-1) at No. 13 USC (2-1), 3:30 p.m. ET
Similarly, the Badgers are regrouping after a serious knee injury to quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. Braedyn Locke has some experience, but he's averaged only 5.1 yards per attempt in scattered snaps for Wisconsin. It's a tough sell to predict an upset at USC.
Prediction: USC 27, Wisconsin 13
Minnesota (2-2) at No. 12 Michigan (3-1), Noon ET
Relative to Big Ten and CFP aspirations, the absence of a threatening passing game is not sustainable for Michigan. But, hey, Minnesota ceded 272 rushing yards and only 62 through the air in last weekend's 31-14 loss to Iowa. Michigan can bully-ball its way to another win.
Prediction: Michigan 34, Minnesota 16
No. 11 Missouri (4-0), Idle
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AP Nos. 10-6
4 of 7
Arizona (2-1) at No. 10 Utah (4-0), 10:15 p.m. ET
I have no idea if Cameron Rising will return. He's cleared to play, but the Utah coaching staff needs to see the QB throw with adequate velocity to start him. So, that's the latest. Despite the uncertainty around him, I'll continue tossing darts in Utah's favor because of a defense that has surrendered no more than 21 points so far.
Prediction: Utah 24, Arizona 20
No. 19 Illinois (4-0) at No. 9 Penn State (3-0), 7:30 p.m. ET
The simple version is Penn State has a better offense, better defense and is playing at home. But if the Illini can generate a few takeaways—and they already have 10 this season, tied for the fifth-highest total in the nation—that's the key to flipping the result.
Prediction: Penn State 27, Illinois 19
No. 8 Oregon (3-0) at UCLA (1-2), 11 p.m. ET
UCLA hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game this season. Safe to say the Bruins are a hefty underdog here, especially after Oregon finally had a strong all-around performance last time out.
Prediction: Oregon 41, UCLA 17
Virginia Tech (2-2) at No. 7 Miami (4-0), Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
In losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers, Virginia Tech allowed 11.2 yards per pass attempt. Those offenses have nowhere near the firepower of Miami's aerial attack, so there may be plenty of nerves in Blacksburg this week. Rivalries can get weird, but Miami should be able to pull away eventually.
Prediction: Miami 37, Virginia Tech 23
Kentucky (2-2) at No. 6 Ole Miss (4-0), Noon ET
Which version of Kentucky will show up? After a blowout loss to South Carolina, the Wildcats—one week later and in the same building—nearly beat Georgia. While I'm taking Ole Miss regardless, you could make a convincing case for a lopsided result or a close finish.
Prediction: Ole Miss 38, Kentucky 21
AP Nos. 5-1
5 of 7
No. 5 Tennessee (4-0), Idle
No. 3 Ohio State (3-0) at Michigan State (3-1), 7 p.m. ET
Ohio State, interestingly enough, hasn't lost in East Lansing since 1999. There is little reason to believe that streak won't reach 10 straight for the Buckeyes, given the combination of their defensive strength and Michigan State's growing pains on offense.
Prediction: Ohio State 45, Michigan State 17
No. 2 Georgia (3-0) at No. 4 Alabama (3-0), 7:30 p.m. ET
One of the best matchups on the 2024 calendar, Georgia heads to Tuscaloosa for only the third regular-season clash between the powerhouses in the last decade. We know it'll be a slugfest. We know Jalen Milroe's mobility will be vital for Bama's chances. We know UGA's defense is sensational. If you prefer the Tide, I'd nod in understanding. I just happen to trust Georgia by the slightest of margins, not in the least because of head coach Kirby Smart.
Prediction: Georgia 24, Alabama 23
Mississippi State (1-3) at No. 1 Texas (4-0), 4:15 p.m. ET
No matter if Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning starts for Texas this weekend, the Longhorns will be a heavy favorite. Mississippi State gave up 86 combined points in recent home losses to Toledo and Florida.
Prediction: Texas 48, Mississippi State 21
Rest of the Slate, Part I
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Army (3-0) at Temple (1-3), Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Army 35, Temple 14
Washington (3-1) at Rutgers (3-0), Friday, 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: Rutgers 30, Washington 24
Western Kentucky (3-1) at Boston College (3-1), Noon ET
Prediction: Boston College 27, WKU 20
Northern Illinois (2-1) at North Carolina State (2-2), Noon ET
Prediction: NC State 21, NIU 16
Holy Cross (1-3) at Syracuse (2-1), Noon ET
Prediction: Syracuse 48, Holy Cross 10
Maryland (3-1) at Indiana (4-0), Noon ET
Prediction: Indiana 31, Maryland 26
Nebraska (3-1) at Purdue (1-2), Noon ET
Prediction: Nebraska 34, Purdue 20
Navy (3-0) at UAB (1-2), Noon ET
Prediction: Navy 31, UAB 21
South Florida (2-2) at Tulane (2-2), Noon ET
Prediction: Tulane 38, USF 24
Buffalo (3-1) at Connecticut (2-2), Noon ET
Prediction: Buffalo 28, UConn 23
Ball State (1-2) at James Madison (3-0), 1:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: JMU 45, Ball State 24
Texas State (2-1) at Sam Houston (3-1), 3 p.m. ET
Prediction: Texas State 34, Sam Houston 27
Louisiana (2-1) at Wake Forest (1-2), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Wake Forest 33, Louisiana 20
TCU (2-2) at Kansas (1-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: TCU 38, Kansas 30
Colorado (3-1) at UCF (3-0), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: UCF 41, Colorado 28
Liberty (4-0) at Appalachian State (2-2), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Liberty 36, App State 27
Akron (1-3) at Ohio (2-2), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Ohio 28, Akron 17
Eastern Michigan (3-1) at Kent State (0-4), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: EMU 35, Kent State 16
San Diego State (1-2) at Central Michigan (2-2), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: CMU 24, SDSU 19
Western Michigan (1-2) at Marshall (1-2), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Marshall 30, WMU 24
Massachusetts (1-3) at Miami (Ohio) (0-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Miami 31, UMass 14
Fresno State (3-1) at UNLV (3-0), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Fresno State 29, UNLV 23
Georgia Southern (2-2) at Georgia State (2-1), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Georgia State 37, Georgia Southern 31
Rest of the Slate, Part II
7 of 7
North Carolina (3-1) at Duke (4-0), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: Duke 34, UNC 27
UTSA (2-2) at East Carolina (2-2), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: UTSA 31, ECU 23
Old Dominion (0-3) at Bowling Green (1-2), 5 p.m. ET
Prediction: Bowling Green 30, ODU 17
Wagner (2-2) at Florida Atlantic (1-3), 6 p.m. ET
Prediction: FAU 38, Wagner 14
Louisiana Tech (1-2) at Florida International (1-3), 6 p.m. ET
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 26, FIU 21
UT Martin (1-3) at Kennesaw State (0-3), 6 p.m. ET
Prediction: Kennesaw State 34, UT Martin 17
Tulsa (2-2) at North Texas (3-1), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: North Texas 42, Tulsa 34
Charlotte (1-3) at Rice (1-3), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Rice 28, Charlotte 20
Louisiana-Monroe (2-1) at Troy (1-3), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Troy 31, ULM 21
Middle Tennessee (1-3) at Memphis (3-1), 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Memphis 45, MTSU 28
Florida State (1-3) at SMU (3-1), 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: SMU 27, Florida State 24
Cincinnati (3-1) at Texas Tech (3-1), 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: Texas Tech 35, Cincinnati 27
New Mexico (0-4) at New Mexico State (1-3), 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: New Mexico 30, NMSU 23
Air Force (1-2) at Wyoming (0-4), 8 p.m. ET
Prediction: Air Force 28, Wyoming 14
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