Bleacher Report's 2024-25 Bowl Projections Entering Week 5
Entering the final weekend of September, bowl season is about to become a much larger conversation around college football.
When the whistle sounds on Week 5, every team in the Football Bowl Subdivision will have played at least four games. Dozens of programs will be trending toward a postseason trip, while plenty of others will be staring down an uphill climb toward a 13th game in 2024.
Simultaneously, nothing is guaranteed at this point, either. Team X may hold a 3-1 record, but maybe nonconference play was quite favorable. Perhaps the opposite was true for Team Y and its 1-3 record.
In other words: Things are going to change.
Because the CFP has expanded to 12 teams, B/R's bowl predictions have a fresh look this season. The picks are subjective but based on official tie-ins while observing all selection processes and contingencies.
One very important note: In 2024 and 2025, the 10 departed Pac-12 teams will still play in bowls affiliated with the conference.
Group of 5 Games
1 of 5
Camellia Bowl (Dec. 14): Bowling Green vs. James Madison
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 19): Western Kentucky vs. Texas State
Cure Bowl (Dec. 20): North Texas vs. Troy
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 23): UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Buffalo vs. Colorado State
Hawai'i Bowl (Dec. 24): Liberty vs. Fresno State
68Ventures (Dec. 26): Jacksonville State vs. Georgia State
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 28): Louisiana Tech vs. Nevada
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 28): Toledo vs. San Jose State
Bahamas Bowl (Jan. 4): Sam Houston vs. Northern Illinois
Trending Up: Bowling Green Falcons
How is a 1-2 team trending up? In their last two games, the Falcons lost 34-27 at No. 9 Penn State and 26-20 at 24th-ranked Texas A&M. Bowling Green should be a highly respected team in the MAC.
Trending Down: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Given that I included the program, it shouldn't be surprising to read I still cautiously believe in Jax State. After posting a 1-3 record in non-league games, however, the Gamecocks will open Conference USA action with a relatively slim margin for error.
G5 vs. P4 Matchups
2 of 5
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 17): South Florida vs. TCU
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 18): South Alabama vs. Cincinnati
LA Bowl (Dec. 18): UNLV vs. Oregon State
Detroit Bowl (Dec. 26): Miami (Ohio) vs. Wisconsin
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 27): Tulane vs. Texas Tech
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28): Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Military Bowl (Dec. 28): Navy vs. Syracuse
Independence Bowl (Dec. 28): Army vs. Cal
Trending Up: Navy Midshipmen
Not only is Navy off to a 3-0 start, but two of those wins (Temple and Memphis) happened against AAC opponents. Last weekend's high-scoring upset of Memphis shoved the Mids toward the front of the league race.
Trending Down: Virginia Tech Hokies
Losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers have silenced any preseason hype around the veteran roster. The optimist might say that since they haven't actually begun ACC play, the Hokies aren't finished. But the pessimist can point to Friday's trip to sizzling, seventh-ranked Miami as a make-or-break moment for Virginia Tech.
Power 4 Bowls, Part I
3 of 5
Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20): North Carolina State vs. Maryland
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 26): Rutgers vs. BYU
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27): Georgia Tech vs. Michigan State
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 27): UCF vs. Kentucky
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27): Pitt vs. Arizona
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 27): Washington vs. Oklahoma
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28): Boston College vs. Illinois
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28): Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28): Iowa State vs. USC
Trending Up: Illinois Fighting Illini
Perhaps it'll be short-lived, but that's why Illinois lands a moment in the spotlight. Key upsets of Kansas and Nebraska have the Illini at 4-0. The bad news is Penn State, Michigan and Oregon await in the upcoming four-game stretch. The good news is Purdue, Minnesota and Northwestern are still left on the schedule, so Illinois should get bowl-eligible.
Trending Down: North Carolina State Wolfpack
NC State, on the other hand, is likely sensing some postseason danger. Transfer quarterback Grayson McCall didn't exactly tear up the place before his injury, and the Wolfpack's issues worsened without him. The schedule is favorable enough to think NC State may survive—no Miami, Louisville, Pitt, Boston College or pseudo-ACC affiliate Notre Dame on the slate—but the Pack are in nervous territory.
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Power 4 Bowls, Part II
4 of 5
Music City Bowl (Dec. 30): Nebraska vs. South Carolina
ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31): Iowa vs. Texas A&M
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31): SMU vs. Washington State
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Michigan vs. Missouri
Texas Bowl (Dec. 31): Kansas State vs. Arkansas
Gator Bowl (Jan. 2): Louisville vs. LSU
First Responder Bowl (Jan. 3): Arizona State vs. West Virginia
Mayo Bowl (Jan. 3): Duke vs. Indiana
Trending Up: Duke Blue Devils
Hasn't been pretty! That's the simple takeaway after Duke slipped past Northwestern 26-20 and Connecticut 26-21. Nevertheless, wins are wins—and the Blue Devils only need two more to secure bowl eligibility.
Trending Down: Missouri Tigers
So far, hitting that six-win target has been the primary focus of each program highlighted in these sections. Missouri is a different story. Barring an epic collapse, the Tigers absolutely will be headed to bowl. Relative to the College Football Playoff chase, though, watching Mizzou narrowly win at home in overtime against Vanderbilt is not reassuring.
College Football Playoff
5 of 5
First-Round Byes
The five highest-ranked conference champions (*) will automatically earn a CFP berth, and the four highest-ranked of that group will be placed in the quarterfinals. While this quartet is assumed to be from the Power 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC), that's not guaranteed.
No. 1: Georgia*, SEC champion in Sugar Bowl
No. 2: Oregon*, Big Ten champion in Rose Bowl
No. 3: Miami*, ACC champion in Peach Bowl
No. 4: Utah*, Big 12 champion in Fiesta Bowl
First-Round Games
No. 12 Boise State* (MWC champion) at No. 5 Texas (winner to Fiesta Bowl)
No. 11 Clemson at No. 6 Ohio State (winner to Peach Bowl)
No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ole Miss (winner to Rose Bowl)
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Alabama (winner to Sugar Bowl)
Top Upcoming Matchup: Georgia at Alabama
If you follow the sport with any regularity, you understand the importance of this matchup. If you don't, welcome! Glad to have you. Here's a quick summary: Georgia enters the clash on a 42-game winning streak in the regular season. Alabama, the nation's preeminent dynasty, beat UGA to snatch the SEC title and make the College Football Playoff last year.
Another to Know: Arizona at Utah
Even without quarterback Cameron Rising, Utah toppled Oklahoma State in the program's Big 12 debut. If the Utes follow up that performance with a victory over Arizona, they'll be positioned extremely well to make the league championship game and contend for an automatic CFP bid.
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