CFB Playoff Picture 2024-25: Bracket Projections and Scenarios After Week 5 AP Poll

The SEC and Big Ten could not be happier with how the first few weeks of the college football season have played out.

The two best leagues in the FBS have a handful of top 15 programs in the AP Top 25 and a case could be made that a majority of the at-large spots in the 12-team playoff field should go to each conference.

The ACC and Big 12 are running out of viable playoff contenders due to a slew of disappointing results.

It is even harder to figure out who will contend alongside the Boise State Broncos for the one berth handed to the Group of Five.

Losses by the Toledo Rockets, Northern Illinois Huskies and Memphis Tigers in Week 4 cleared the path for Boise State to hop into the Top 25 and pole position for the G5 playoff bid.

CFB Playoff Projections

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STILLWATER, OK - SEPTEMBER 21: Utah Utes quarterback Isaac Wilson (11) looks to pass against the Oklahoma State Cowboys on September 21st, 2024 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma. (Photo by WJ/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Conference Champions

1. Georgia (SEC champion)

2. Ohio State (Big Ten champion)

3. Miami (ACC champion)

4. Utah (Big 12 champion)

First Round Projection

No. 12 Boise State vs. No. 5 Texas

No. 11 Oklahoma State vs. No. 6 Ole Miss

No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 7 Tennessee

No. 9 Oregon vs. No. 8 Alabama

Could SEC Get Six Teams into Playoff?

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OXFORD, MISSISSIPPI - SEPTEMBER 21: Jaxson Dart #2 of the Mississippi Rebels warms up before the game against the Georgia Southern Eagles at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on September 21, 2024 in Oxford, Mississippi. (Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)

The SEC has six legitimate playoff contenders going into Week 5.

The Texas Longhorns are No. 1 in the Top 25, the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide play each other on Saturday, while the Ole Miss Rebels, Missouri Tigers and Tennessee Volunteers are off to strong starts.

A bunch of the six teams will play each other throughout conference play, but if they all end up with two losses or fewer, they might be able to all get into the playoff field.

The ACC only has Miami and the Clemson Tigers as viable playoff contenders, while the Big 12 only has the Utah Utes in a great position.

Week 5's battle between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Kansas State Wildcats could be an elimination game for the playoff given how strong the SEC and Big Ten look.

The Big Ten will have a huge say in the at-large conversation as well, but only three Big Ten teams reside in the top 10 of the AP poll right now.

If the Michigan Wolverines keep winning, they will join the Ohio State Buckeyes, Penn State Nittany Lions and Oregon Ducks in the playoff conversation, which will then affect the SEC's bid to get five or six teams into the field.

Miami, Utah in Tremendous Shape

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TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 21: Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward (1) scrambles for time during the game between the University of Miami Hurricanes and the South Florida Bulls on Saturday, September 21, 2024 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Miami and Utah feel as close to locks as possible to make the CFB Playoff right now.

The Hurricanes breezed through the South Florida Bulls in Week 4 thanks to their third straight 50-point performance.

Cam Ward and Co. only have one ranked foe on their ACC schedule. The road trip to face the Louisville Cardinals on October 19 could be for a spot in the ACC Championship Game.

Utah only has two ranked opponents left on its Big 12 docket, and both of those games take place in Salt Lake City.

Miami does not have to play Clemson and Utah avoids Kansas State. Clemson and K-State could be viewed as the second-best teams in the ACC and Big 12 right now.

Conference titles, and the first-round playoff byes that come with them, are in the futures of both teams if they just take care of business against lesser-ranked teams the rest of the way.

Boise State Now Top Ranked Group of Five Team

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EUGENE, OREGON - SEPTEMBER 07: Ashton Jeanty #2 of the Boise State Broncos runs for a touchdown against the Oregon Ducks during the first half at Autzen Stadium on September 7, 2024 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images)

Boise State ascended into the favorite role among the Group of Five teams to advance to the playoff after Week 4.

The Broncos moved up to No. 25 in the AP poll to replace Northern Illinois, who fell out of the poll from No. 23 after a loss to the Buffalo Bulls.

NIU, Memphis and Toledo all surged to the front of the G5 conversation with impressive road wins in September, but they all lost in Week 4.

Boise State's biggest competition for a playoff spot could come from within the Mountain West. The UNLV Rebels own two road wins over Big 12 teams and host Boise State on October 25.

Plenty other G5 playoff contenders will emerge in the coming weeks, but for now, it appears that the Mountain West is in a terrific position.