B/R College Football 2024 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 4
Just like that, the college football season is a month old.
It will be said in earnest when the leaves topple off trees and the weather turns, but that won't stop us from saying it now: Don't miss a minute. As we all know, the season moves entirely too quickly.
As the season has progressed, Locks of the Week has remained somewhat in hibernation. A few rough conclusions led to a losing week that could have—and should have—been profitable. There were also a handful of clunkers nestled in there, and we'll get to that momentarily.
For now, we enter Week 4 at 13-18. This is an unusual position given our fast starts in recent years, but we're not running from it. We're running toward it.
Before we sprint to this week's picks—on a card we absolutely love—let's assess the good and not-so-good from the week that was.
The Good: Notre Dame (-10) vs. Purdue: The line movement in this game scared me some. In fact, by game time, this spread was hovering around a touchdown. Then the game started, and Notre Dame scored roughly 700 touchdowns. This one felt right.
The Bad: Florida State (-6.5) vs. Memphis: This one felt wrong the entire time. I thought Florida State would find some footing against a Group of Five team, and it proceeded to make just about every mistake a football program can make. Woof.
With that out of the way, let's get to it. Winners from Week 4 ahoy.
For the latest spreads on futures and games, head to DraftKings.
BYU (+6.5) vs. Kansas State
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In a crowded and discombobulated Big 12, BYU sits at 3-0, quietly nearing a Top 25 ranking. A win at home this week against a top-15 foe will change that in a hurry.
At the very least, the Cougars have the firepower to keep this game tight.
Kansas State's lone road trip this year ended up being a nail-biter at Tulane. The Wildcats followed up that close call with a thorough win over Arizona at home on Friday night.
This week, however, K-State could be tested again.
BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff might not deliver the same highlight-reel runs that K-State's Avery Johnson does, but he has been incredibly effective. At home, against a team coming off a massive win, Retzlaff and BYU were able to capitalize on a late-night hangover special in Provo.
Not only is BYU very much alive with the points, but the Cougars are also alive to win outright.
Western Kentucky (+2.5) vs. Toledo
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In the infancy of this season, Toledo has emerged as a team to watch.
In fact, the Rockets received AP Poll votes this past week, and they're likely a few more meaningful wins away from being ranked.
Toledo didn't just beat Mississippi State; the Rockets clobbered the Bulldogs on the road, delivering one of the more unexpected results of the past week. A week later, this same team must hit the road once again for a tricky road game against Western Kentucky.
The Hilltoppers' lone loss came at Alabama. (It was ugly.) Since then, Western Kentucky has been perfect. The latest win, a 49-21 victory over Middle Tennessee on the road, was plenty impressive.
Given last week's high-profile outcome, Toledo will likely be a popular selection. But long-time readers of this weekly staple know just how we feel about home underdogs in this spot. Western Kentucky wins outright.
Louisiana (+3) vs. Tulane
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On the topic of home underdogs, enter Louisiana.
The Ragin' Cajuns are 2-0, although those two wins require proper context. Louisiana has beaten Grambling and Kennesaw State this season, outscoring those two teams by a combined score of 74-20.
To say that the competition will get better is an understatement. The competition now improves in a gargantuan way.
Tulane is unequivocally better, and recent football results say just that. The Green Wave nearly upended Kansas State a few weeks ago and then stayed competitive with Oklahoma on Saturday. Over these few games, the team did some very good things.
With that acknowledged, this is a brutal stretch of football for the Green Wave. Playing two bigger, faster Power Five teams in a row is likely to take its toll. Having to play on the road after an exhausting stretch is a recipe for trouble.
Louisiana pulls off a small home upset.
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Michigan (+5.5) vs. USC
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Not long ago, backing the defending national champions at home against one of the sport's biggest recent underachievers would have seemed like a sensible thing to do.
In a matter of three weeks, the narrative is flipped. Michigan has made a QB change, USC is suddenly rolling, and the narratives we once knew are very much gone.
Indeed, Alex Orji will get the start for the Wolverines. While we can question how well he throws the football, we can't question his athleticism or ability to make plays with his feet. We also can't really question a Michigan defense still rife with stars.
USC has shown us plenty. The defense looks much improved, QB Miller Moss looks promising, and the vibes have flipped tremendously. Given the shakiness from LSU in Week 2, however, perhaps we're overreacting to the Trojans' early success ever so slightly.
While Lincoln Riley's could and should win, Michigan will keep these game inside the number.
Texas Tech vs. Arizona State (Over 60.5)
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For the most part, totals have been unkind to us this year. This is the kind of game, which has the chance to be completely off the rails, that gets us back on track.
After a weird loss, Texas Tech found its offense against North Texas in the form of a stunning 66-point output. Arizona State, which cost us money last week, eclipsed the 30-point mark for the third time this year.
Playing in Lubbock, this has the makings of a fun, absurd football game. Texas Tech is currently ranked No. 123 in scoring defense. Arizona State checks in at No. 54. (Although credit the Sun Devils for making a few key defensive plays down the stretch last week.)
We toyed with the idea of taking a side, looking long and hard at Texas Tech. Rather than fade ASU once again, we're siding with the absurdity. More specifically, we're hoping that a wonderful football venue gives us football fireworks.
Other Games on the Card
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East Carolina (+6.5) at Liberty
Liberty has played with fire early in the year, and East Carolina has shown to be very capable. This feels like another tight game that will test Liberty's College Football Playoff chances.
Coastal Carolina (+3.5) vs. Virginia
Although Coastal Carolina struggled at home against Temple in Week 3, a home game against a team with some offensive struggles should make for a close, compelling matchup.
West Virginia (-2.5) vs Kansas
Both teams come into Week 4 limping. Kansas is nowhere close to the team it has been in recent years, and West Virginia just lost emphatically to its rival. In short, the home team wins.
Army vs. Rice (Under 42.5)
The clock should stay moving with a rush-heavy attack on Army's side. Rice, meanwhile, struggles to score the football. This feels very much like a 21-10 football game.
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