Biggest Overreactions from Fantasy Football Managers After 2024 NFL Preseason
Fantasy football managers like a great many things.
They like delicious nachos. A tasty cold beverage to wash them down. They like drafting fantasy teams. They like arguing over which fantasy teams are the best.
And boy oh boy do they like overreacting.
It happens all draft season long—and into the regular season. They overreact to minor injuries. They overreact to coachspeak and camp reports, be they positive or negative. And sometimes, they overreact to, well, nothing. A player starts rising up draft boards (or falling down them) for no readily apparent reason and folks just kind of—go along with it.
As someone who regularly participates in over 25 fantasy leagues of all sizes and formats (Never mind the best-ball drafts—we won't get into how many of those there are), I see it happen every single year. Players slide who shouldn't into a position of value. Or rise to a point where the value they once had evaporates.
And recently, it has happened with the players listed here.
Fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
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This overreaction isn't really based on anything we saw in the preseason—in news that should surprise exactly no one, Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray wasn't out there much in games that didn't count.
In fact, Murray didn't take a single snap in the preseason.
Now, that doesn't mean that Murray isn't ready for his sixth season—Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon told Adam Schein on Mad Dog Sports Radio the 27-year-old is healthy and in a great place headed into the 2024 campaign.
"Physically and mentally, I mean, he looks damn good. He looks damn good," Gannon said. "You know, 'cause you gotta think, he played really good football for us; he had never taken a snap in this offense until Atlanta (in Week 10), you know what I mean, his first game back. I mean, he had a couple weeks of practice leading up to that, but no offseason program, no training camp. No however many games we played without him. Couple weeks of practice and then, you're going, 'Let's play football.' So, I think from a mental and physical standpoint, right now where he's at, to even when he got back last year or even where he finished last year, I think he's leaps and bounds ahead."
No, Murray being drafted as a top-five fantasy quarterback in some drafts is all about his scrambling ability. Fantasy managers love quarterbacks who can pick up yardage with their legs, and those same managers remember Murray's 819-yard, 11-score 2020 season.
However, Murray's rushing numbers fell precipitously the following season, and he hasn't averaged even 40 rushing yards a game since.
As a low-end QB1, Murray had value. But given the questions surrounding the Arizona offense in 2024, this is drafting him at his ceiling—and then some.
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
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It's been quite the summer for Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White. For every fantasy pundit who was convinced that White had breakout potential, there was another who was sure that last year's late-season success was an unrepeatable fluke.
In limited preseason work, White was decent—10 carries for 46 yards and a touchdown. But White came off the field in passing situations and ceded some starter's snaps to free-agent acquisition Alexander Mattison. That sent his stock tumbling in some drafts—this analyst has seen him drop well into fantasy RB3 territory.
The thing is, as Dave Richard wrote for CBS Sports, White leaving the field in obvious passing situations isn't exactly news. But White's dip actually presents fantasy managers with an opportunity for value.
"Coach Antonio Pierce basically spelled out that White will be the Raiders' main rusher this season, an obvious point after the bully back looked the part in the Raiders' first preseason game. He might never be a passing-downs option for the Raiders -- all of the 11 third-down snaps he played in those final four games were either third and short or QB kneel-downs. But it's unlikely Mattison or anyone else currently on the Las Vegas roster significantly displaces White. As long as he stays in that role, he has the makings of a weekly Fantasy starter. Problem is, guys with very small sample sizes from the year prior don't always work out the year after, so there is some risk."
Once you get into the 20s at running back, there ain't a guy on the board who doesn't have considerable risk. But the later fantasy drafters can land a legitimate lead back, the more they can blast away at other positions without creating a massive hole in the backfield.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
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It's hardly a surprise that Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford is moving up draft boards—with Nick Chubb opening the season on the PUP list, Ford will be the No. 1 running back for the team for at least the first month of the season.
There are some fantasy pundits, such as Jason Schandl of Sports Illustrated, who believe that Ford could hold the job a lot longer than four weeks given how capably he filled in for Chubb in 2023.
"People are way overrating the chances of Jerome Ford losing the RB1 job this year. Chubb is far from a lock to return in Week 5, he'll probably take some time to get back up to speed, and his new level of "up to speed" after the injury is not guaranteed to be anything like the way he used to play. It's sad to see, of course, but it also makes Jerome Ford an incredible value. Starting in Week 2 (when Chubb went down), Ford was the RB23 in per-game fantasy production. And that came while Kareem Hunt was taking 10 touches per game (9.0 carries, 1.0 reception) from Ford. It's clearly his backfield until Chubb returns now, as Pierre Strong and D'Onta Foreman (who the Browns were willing to risk losing by releasing briefly) are his only competition for looks."
The thing is, it wasn't a surprise that Chubb landed on PUP, and most of the reports regarding his rehab this summer have been positive. This was Cleveland's plan all along.
Also, while Ford surpassed 1,100 total yards last year, he averaged just 4.0 yards per carry despite rushing behind arguably the league's best line. He's an average talent—at best. Strong and Foreman are going to figure into things, and the Browns could always add another back.
Ford could be a cheap low-end RB2 to open the season. But his fantasy value likely carries an expiration date—one that makes the notion of taking him ahead of a player like Najee Harris of the Pittsburgh Steelers the definition of an overreaction.
No, really. That happened.
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Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
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Remember the good old days when Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp was available in the fourth round? Those were simpler times.
They are also gone. Kupp's average draft position at Fantasy Pros has climbed into Round 3, and there have been drafts where he has gone in Round 2—right on the heels of teammate Puka Nacua.
The reason for Kupp's climb? There are three. The first is that from all indications, the 31-year-old is healthy. The second is that Nacua isn't—his Week 1 status is in question due to an offseason knee injury. The third, as Dane Martinez wrote at the Athletic, is that Kupp showed flashes a year ago of the player who dominated his position back in 2021.
"If Puka does miss any time, Kupp would be an incredible value in the WR15-20 range, but I think he should be moving up regardless. Even with Nacua on the field and enjoying a record-setting rookie season, Kupp finished strong with four TDs in his final five games, along with 8+ targets in four of them and 100+ yards twice. Kupp was the overall WR1 in his last full season, back in 2021, with an eye-popping 145 catches, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. His chemistry with Matthew Stafford is still obvious, and the Rams will continue to be a pass-heavy offense under Sean McVay. I'd be happy leaving my draft with Kupp as my WR2 and think the window is closing to get him at a discount."
The issue here is that people appear to have either forgotten or chosen to ignore the fact that last year wasn't the first time Kupp missed significant time—he missed almost half of the 2022 season with an ankle injury.
Kupp is the wrong side of 30 and has missed 13 games the past two years. His upside is considerable to be sure. But don't lose sight of the fact the risk present with Kupp is as well.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears
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Over 11 years with the Los Angeles Chargers, Keenan Allen was one of the most consistently productive wide receivers in the NFL. In four of the past five years, Allen surpassed 100 receptions. In three of those seasons, Allen topped 1,000 receiving yards.
But in the offseason, Allen was traded to the Chicago Bears. And as the staff at RotoBaller wrote, since then it's seemingly been nothing but bad news regarding the veteran wideout.
"He's coming off a strong 2023, but he did miss four games with a heel injury. This marked the second straight season that Allen has missed time due to injury. While Allen's play did not decline last year, there have been some less-than-ideal reports about his weight and how he's looked in Bears camp/practices. Allen also finished the preseason 287th in PFF's receiving grade. This is not exactly what you want to see from a 32-year-old player. Chicago also recently signed Moore to a contract extension while Allen is essentially playing on a one-year contract. It seems to safe assume that Moore will be featured as the team's WR1 once again in 2024."
That's without taking into consideration a top-10 rookie pick in Rome Odunze. And a foot injury the Bears are doing their best to play down.
Add it all together, and Allen's fantasy stock has been sliding for much of the summer—and it's entirely possible it has now slid too far.
Yes, Moore appears to be Chicago's top wideout. Yes, Odunze is a talented rookie. But Allen isn't exactly cat food—his route-running and ability to get open underneath could provide rookie quarterback Caleb Williams with a valuable "safety blanket."
I'll confess I've gone from "in" on Allen (to the point of questioning whether he might lead all Bears receivers in PPR fantasy points) to "out" at ADP after the negative camp buzz to back "in" in drafts where he's falling.
Call it a case of fantasy whiplash.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
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Sometimes, a player drops in drafts for reasons that aren't plainly evident. And in at least a couple of drafts I have participated in over the past week or two, that has been the case with Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews. He's falling into or past the fifth round, and outside the top-five fantasy tight ends.
This isn't to say there aren't legitimate concerns with the 28-year-old. Andrews has missed time in each of the past two seasons, including seven games a year ago. The Ravens were tied for the second-fewest pass attempts in the league a year ago. And while speaking to reporters recently, Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta talked up tight end Isaiah Likely as a weapon in the Baltimore passing attack.
"I love 'Zay' [Isaiah Likely]. He's a playmaker," DeCosta said. "He's got route-running ability -- [he's] similar to a receiver in some ways. [He's] strong after the catch; that's something that going back to college when I evaluated him, that's the one thing you kind of hung your hat on, 'This guy was dangerous with the football in his hands.' He's another guy -- I've seen an urgency with him. His leadership, interaction with other players ... He's kind of changed from being a rookie to being a vet, and I just feel like he and Mark Andrews will be the best tandem at their position in the league and really create a lot of problems for opposing defensive coordinators."
However, we're talking about a player in Andrews who is in the prime of his career who is Lamar Jackson's favorite target in Baltimore's passing game who caught 107 passes and finished as fantasy's top tight end in his last full season.
He's my third-ranked tight end for 2024. Getting Andrews any later than that is value.
Looking for more insight to prep for your draft or make some tough roster decisions? Check out all the latest B/R Fantasy Football essentials here.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.
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