2024 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Ideal Scenarios, Selections for 12-Team League
With the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens set to face off on Thursday, we're only days away from the start of the 2024 NFL season.
If your seasonlong fantasy league waited until now to draft, someone made the right call. With the preseason over and initial 53-player rosters set, the risk of injuries or surprise role changes is low.
Managers can attack the draft with much more information than they had even a week ago.
This doesn't mean that managers can simply pick a lane and cruise through their drafts, however. NFL teams may not spring many surprises in the coming days, but fellow fantasy competitors will.
We're here to help in the preparation process by diving into the first two rounds of a 12-team, point-per-reception (PPR) mock draft and examining ideal strategies and scenarios for the early, middle and late rounds.
12-Team PPR Mock
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Round 1
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
2. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
3. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
4. Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
5. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
7. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
8. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
9. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
10. Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
11. Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
12. Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Round 2
1. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
2. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
3. Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
4. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
5. Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
6. Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
7. Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
8. Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
9. James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
10. Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
11. Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions
12. Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Early Rounds
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This mock draft was conducted using FantasyPros' Mock Draft Simulator and provides a fairly accurate snapshot of how a lot of drafts are likely to unfold.
Unsurprisingly, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey went first overall. He was the top fantasy performer of 2023 by a large margin and is an easy pick for managers who landed the No. 1 selection.
Managers picking early in Round 1 should focus on "safe" players like McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall. These are players who should only disappoint if injuries become involved.
Within the first four rounds, managers should be looking to secure skill players with very limited risk.
Managers picking in the middle of the first round should still be able to get a fairly safe selection but will probably want to focus on high-end receivers—assuming McCaffrey, Hall and Robinson are already off the board.
Note that Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson fell to the eighth pick in this mock. He's trending a little lower this year because Minnesota is expected to start Sam Darnold at quarterback. However, Jefferson is still an ideal target in the middle or back of Round 1.
In his four starts without Kirk Cousins last season, Jefferson averaged 7.5 receptions, 119 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. He's going to produce, no matter who is under center for Minnesota this season.
There are more decisions to be made in the back end of Round 1. Payers like A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley, Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua, while likely to produce, aren't quite "sure things."
There's also not a massive gap between late first-round targets and second-rounders. In no way is it a stretch to imagine, say, Drake London out-performing Wilson in fantasy this year. These picks will be more about personal preference, though managers should still focus on No. 1 receiving targets, clear-cut starting backs and elite tight ends in the first four rounds.
Middle Rounds
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Past the first four rounds, draft positioning starts to mean a lot less, even in larger leagues. Assuming the league utilizes a snake-draft format, managers may have to start picking some specific players a round early because of the gap between picks.
The only real strategy advice we can offer here is not to get too cute with players you really want. If you view Calvin Ridley as a slam-dunk sleeper pick worth a Round 6 selection, don't try waiting until Round 8 to grab him.
In an ideal scenario, managers will have one tier-one running back or receiver and three other starting-caliber skill players. Managers should also look to grab at least one running back by Round 3 and certainly no later than Round 4.
Rounds 4-8 are a veritable wasteland of boom-or-bust RBs, committee backs and unproven rookies. This is a range in which managers might land an injured back with upside—like Jonathon Brooks or Nick Chubb—but they aren't going to be early-season starters.
While this mock didn't have any quarterbacks going in Round 2—Josh Allen went with the first pick in Round 3—managers are likely to encounter a few signal-callers going early. This is a great scenario for managers willing to wait because it can mean landing a quality starter who wouldn't have otherwise been available.
In this mock, Round 3 players picked after Allen and Jalen Hurts included Josh Jacobs, Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce and Nico Collins.
Strategically, it makes a ton of sense to wait until the middle rounds to take a signal-caller. There are enough good fantasy QBs for managers to fill the rest of their starting lineups—minus defenses and kickers, of course—before taking a signal-caller.
Ideally, managers should look to pair a high-upside QB like Jayden Daniels or Jordan Love (both Round 7 selections in this mock) with a high-floor QB like Jared Goff or Tua Tagovailoa (Round 11).
This will provide a chance to possibly match the production of a QB like Allen or Hurts while ensuring that a campaign isn't doomed by poor quarterback play.
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Late Rounds
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In an ideal scenario, managers will have all starting skill spots settled with a quality backup at both running back and receiver by the end of Round 8. The final rounds should be spent focusing on targeting handcuffs, higher-risk rookies and those deep sleepers you just have a "gut feeling" about drafting.
Players worth considering in this range include rookie running backs like Ray Davis, Bucky Irving and Braelon Allen who may work their way into the offensive game plan as the season progresses.
Davis, Irving and Allen are ideal targets because they also serve as handcuffs to highly drafted backs in James Cook, Rachaad White and Hall, respectively.
This is also a great range in which to target wide receivers who could see expanded roles in 2024. Wideouts like Khalil Shakir, Dontayvion Wicks and Josh Reynolds are terrific late-round targets.
The final few rounds are where managers should take backup tight ends, defenses and kickers.
When targeting a backup tight end, it's important to identify a projected starter or a player with tremendous upside. Rookie tight end Ben Sinnott, who will start the year as a Washington Commanders backup, and T.J. Hockenson (PUP list) are great examples of the latter category.
When targeting a defense/special teams unit, managers should prioritize teams that generate turnovers and sacks at a consistent rate first, followed by units that consistently limit scoring.
A viable defense can typically be found in the last couple of rounds. However, managers picking between, say, the Baltimore Ravens D/ST, and a fifth RB who may never start in Round 11 shouldn't be afraid to flip the switch early.
Kickers should never be drafted before the final two rounds, regardless of format or league size.
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