Fantasy Football 2024: Christian McCaffrey and Safest Players to Draft No. 1
When fantasy football managers hit their respective draft rooms ahead of the 2024 NFL season, they'll spend a big chunk of their time betting on upside and chasing potential breakouts and sleepers.
They shouldn't be doing any of that in the first round, though.
While you can't win your league with your top selection, you can absolutely lose it there. Most managers will leave the round with a legitimate difference-maker. If you aren't one of them, your season is probably over before it ever got started.
It's smart to wager on safety early on, then, so let's spotlight the three safest selections in contention for the first overall pick.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
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It's tempting to look at Tyreek Hill's stat sheet and think you're seeing video-game numbers. In reality, though, gamers don't even match these marks.
If anyone was worried he might not be the same without Patrick Mahomes, those concerns were almost immediately silenced. Hill had 11 receptions for 190 yards and two scores in his second game for the Dolphins in 2022, and he basically hasn't stopped putting up bonkers box scores ever since.
He finished each of his first two seasons in Miami with exactly 119 receptions. His targets have been almost identical (170 the first year, 171 the second), and there isn't even much separation with his yardage (1,710 and then 1,799). He has scored 21 touchdowns over this stretch.
There's no reason to think these numbers will slow down, meaning there's no reason to doubt Hill has a real chance to be the highest-scoring non-quarterback.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
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It's typically advisable to exercise some caution when it comes to drafting a player coming off the best campaign of their career. CeeDee Lamb looks like one of the exceptions, though.
For starters, all four of his seasons have gone down as personal bests. His targets, receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches have all shown perpetual growth. Granted, it's hard to find much more room to grow after last season's domination—135 receptions on 181 targets for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns—but who's to say this is as good as he can be?
Lamb might be an established superstar, but he's also a 25-year-old entering his fifth NFL season. It's very possible he hasn't shown his best form yet.
If nothing else, his volume feels safe, which probably shouldn't be possible given how loud it is. But where would the Cowboys turn for production if not for him? Their running back room is uninspiring (to be polite), Brandin Cooks is approaching his 31st birthday and Michael Gallup is gone. There's a chance Lamb is even more involved in this aerial attack than he was last season.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
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Safety might initially seem like a strange quality to attach to Christian McCaffrey given the size and scope of his injury history. However, if he just stays healthy, which he has the past two seasons, then he's the likeliest player to pace non-quarterbacks in fantasy points.
His 2022 midseason move to San Francisco essentially put him into cheat-code territory. The 49ers have too many weapons for defenses to solely commit to containing McCaffrey, and even if they tried, head coach Kyle Shanahan is a smart enough play-caller to scheme up big-play chances for McCaffrey anyway.
He has played 27 regular-season games for the 49ers. He has 31 touchdowns in those contests. In addition, he also has 2,205 rushing yards on 431 carries, plus another 1,028 yards on 119 receptions. To simplify those numbers, his average outing with San Francisco features 119.7 scrimmage yards and 1.1 scores.
In other words, there's a reason McCaffrey is locked into the No. 1 spot for just about every fantasy analyst and manager you'll find.
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