Bold Predictions for Steelers' Individual Stat Leaders in 2024 NFL Season
The Pittsburgh Steelers were a playoff team in 2023, but they decided to shake up the roster fairly significantly this offseason. Pittsburgh reloaded its offensive line, added some intriguing new defensive pieces and, most notably, completely reshaped the quarterback room.
Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph are out, and the Steelers will name either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields as the new starter in the coming days.
"We will do it at the end of the work week," head coach Mike Tomlin said on Saturday, per Coral Smith of NFL.com.
While we can't know exactly how the Steelers roster will shake out ahead of Tuesday's cut deadline, we have a good idea of who Pittsburgh's top playmakers will be this season.
Below, you'll find a look at some of the presumptive Steelers stat leaders, a few bold predictions and what they could mean for Pittsburgh in 2024.
Russell Wilson Doubles Pittsburgh's TD Total
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While the Steelers haven't named a starting quarterback yet, it would be a massive surprise if Wilson isn't "the guy."
The 35-year-old played only one series in Pittsburgh's preseason finale, led a touchdown drive and then exited. If the QB competition were truly open, Tomlin probably would have wanted a longer look at all of his quarterbacks.
The hope is that Wilson's experience and playmaking ability can give Pittsburgh a boost under center. Wilson doesn't have to return to Pro Bowl form for this to happen. If he can be a high-end game manager who does a decent job of pushing the ball down the field, he'll be an upgrade over the Pickett-Rudolph tandem.
We'll probably see a few subpackages for the speedy Fields as well, but the prediction here is that Wilson holds down the starting job for most of the season and does exactly what he's supposed to do.
The numbers may not be gaudy, but they should be much better than what Pittsburgh got from under center in 2023—3,421 passing yards and 13 touchdowns. Wilson threw for 3,070 and 26 touchdowns in only 15 games with the Denver Broncos last season by himself.
Expect new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to lean heavily on the ground game, which may prevent Wilson from truly becoming the centerpiece of the offense. However, he'll generate enough big plays and make enough timely red-zone throws to double the number of passing touchdowns Pittsburgh had last season.
Stat Prediction: 3,561 yards, 26 TDs, 11 INTs, 330 rushing yards, 3 rushing TDs
George Pickens Earns First Pro Bowl Nod
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One of the biggest problems of the short-lived Pickett era was an inability to consistently attack defenses deep. Former offensive coordinator Matt Canada deserves some of the blame, but Pickett, too often, seemed hesitant to uncork longer throws.
Wilson may not have the same raw arm strength he had early in his career, but he should be more willing than Pickett was to look for big-play threats like George Pickens in the deep-passing game.
And with a more threatening quarterback under center, the Steelers should be willing to employ a more balanced offense—they ranked only 29th in pass attempts last season. With Pittsburgh still lacking a proven No. 2 receiver, Pickens will be targeted early and often.
All of this should add up to a breakthrough season for Pickens, who had a very good one in 2023. Despite the inconsistent quarterback play, Pickens caught 63 passes for 1,146 yards, five touchdowns and a league-high 18.1 yards-per-catch average.
Barring injury, there's no doubting that Pickens will lead the Steelers in receiving yards next season. The bold prediction here is that the 23-year-old does enough to earn his first career Pro Bowl nod—a difficult challenge in a conference that features stars like Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and Amari Cooper.
Stat Prediction: 72 catches, 1,260 receiving yards, 9 TDs, 112 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
Jaylen Warren Out-Paces Najee Harris
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Pickens may ultimately lead the Steelers in scrimmage yards last season, but running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren shouldn't be far behind. The two form one of the league's most potent backfield tandems, and they should see a fairly even split in Smith's offense.
Harris, of course, is the higher-profile player. The 2021 first-round pick was a rookie Pro Bowler and has topped 1,000 rushing yards in each of his three campaigns. However, Harris has also been more of a compiler on the ground than a true playmaker—the Alabama product has averaged just 3.9 yards per carry as a pro.
Warren, a 2022 undrafted free agent out of Oklahoma State, emerged as the more efficient and explosive member of Pittsburgh's backfield last season. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry and 6.1 yards per reception.
While Harris led the team in touches (284) and scrimmage yards (1,205), Warren had nearly as many yards with fewer opportunities (210 touches, 1,154 yards).
Warren is dealing with a hamstring injury but expects to be available for Week 1.
"It's nothing major," he said, per Chris Adamski of TribLive.
The prediction here is that Warren gets even more opportunities than he did a year ago and firmly out-paces Harris in scrimmage yards.
Stat Prediction: 932 rushing yards, 55 receptions, 337 receiving yards, 6 TDs
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