FA Cup Preview: United Look for Revenge in Manchester Derby

On Sunday, what is quickly becoming the fiercest rivalry in English football will have its latest installment, as Manchester City and Manchester United will do battle in the third round of the FA Cup—the two teams that have conspired to turn this season’s Premier League into a two-horse race for the title.

City, long accustomed to toiling in United’s shadows, have succeeded in throwing off the label of “noisy neighbors," having won their last two competitive fixtures against their more storied neighbors. Those victories, the 1-0 win in last season’s FA Cup semifinal and the now famous 6-1 shellacking at Old Trafford in October, have already gone down in the annals of City history, and will imbue Roberto Mancini’s men with a lot of confidence as they welcome Sir Alex Ferguson and Co. to Etihad Stadium.

This season hasn’t exactly gone off as planned for United, and after starting off the first month or so of the season in blistering form, the Red Devils have tapered off. Humiliating upsets knocked them out of the Champions League and Carling Cup, and their play in the league in recent months has been relatively turgid, especially compared to the free-scoring, free-flowing form of City.

A recent alleged spat between star striker Wayne Rooney and Fergie have also raised questions about the English international’s future at the team, as well as the overall cohesion in the locker room.

For all that, United are still only three points off their neighbors in the league, and, indeed could have gone up to first, as City slipped up over the Christmas period with draws to WBA and a loss to Sunderland. However, United lost at home to bottom-of-the-league Blackburn before being comprehensively outplayed in a 3-0 loss at Newcastle on Wednesday to leave them in second place.

Such poor defensive form does not bode well for United, who have seen their backline pared down by the season-long absence of Nemanja Vidic and injuries to the likes of Chris Smalling and Jonny Evans, both of whom will probably miss Sunday’s encounter. Patrice Evra, the acting captain, will start at left back, although his play has largely been poor this season, whereas Antonio Valencia might slot in at right back, an unnatural position for him.

For United, the key is the midfield, which was overrun by City in the team’s October derby and looked lifeless against Newcastle. Mancini’s options in this part of the field will also be limited by circumstance however, as Yaya Toure has departed for the African Cup of Nations and Gareth will serve a suspension after being sent off in the recent win over Liverpool. Samir Nasri, who has largely been underwhelming since moving from Arsenal this past summer, may be forced to sit out with an illness. This will probably leave the industrious James Milner (who was excellent in the 6-1 game) and the seldom-used Nigel de Jong as the center midfield pairing.

Striker is even more of a problem spot for City. Edin Dzeko and Mario Balotelli will almost certainly miss through injury, which means Sergio Aguero will probably be the team’s only recognized striker on Sunday. This lack of attacking options is worrying (and will probably lead to a few transfers at the Etihad in January), but City will still be reasonably confident, given the extremely poor defending that United’s back four have displayed in recent times.

The team that wins this match will receive a massive psychological boost, one that will go beyond the Cup and shape how the league season will pan out. A City victory, which would keep their hunt for the domestic treble alive, and their status as Manchester’s dominant team will be reaffirmed; a United victory, and Fergie’s men might start believing that, for all their struggles, they are still in with a chance of topping City by the time May rolls around.

Both teams will be hamstrung by injuries, but, at the end of the day, City simply have more quality in their side. With United’s midfield looking distinctly average and their defense shipping in goals, look for City to come away with another comfortable victory.

Prediction: City 3 - 0 United