10 Players to Target or Avoid at Current ADP in 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts
For a great many fantasy football enthusiasts, this is a big weekend. With less than two weeks to go until the regular season begins, just two big fantasy draft weekends are left this summer. Whether it's online, at a local watering hole or in Jack from Accounting's sports cave, folks across the country will be gathering to draft their teams for the season to come.
Draft day is a time of great hope and excitement, but there's pressure galore as well. Blow the draft, and it can be a long fall and winter, filled with snickers and jabs from Jack and the rest of the gang. As such, fantasy managers are looking for any edge they can get, whether it's players available at a value price or guys who are coming off draft boards earlier than they should.
Well, we can't have Jack making cracks at your expense. So, here's a look at five players you should give strong consideration to targeting at their ADP—and five more who are better left on the board for Jack to take.
We'll see who's making the wisecracks after that.
Fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday
Average draft position data courtesy of FantasyPros.
TARGET: Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
1 of 10
ADP: QB10, 70th Overall
It's not hard to understand why Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is being drafted toward the back end of the top 10 at his position.
Two years ago, Murray tore his ACL 11 games into the season. That injury lingered well into 2023, wiping out better than half the season. However, back in the long-ago days of 2021, Murray was fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. The year before that, no NFC quarterback had more fantasy points.
As Jonathon Macri wrote for Pro Football Focus, even in those last two "disappointing" seasons, Murray offered a glimpse of the fantasy upside that makes him a value in 2024.
"Murray played just eight full games in 2023 and 10 in 2022 but showcased his high-end fantasy potential with 11 top-12 finishes (61%) in those 18 games while never finishing worse than QB22 in the weeks he played more than a quarter of the game. Murray's floor remains high because of his high-end rushing upside, as he averaged 4.5 runs per game last season that accounted for 5.3 fantasy points per game — sixth at the position. Murray's rushing ability helps give him an elite fantasy upside to make him one of the most enticing fantasy quarterback targets going outside the top five in ADP right now. If Murray can bounce back as a passer, his QB1 potential is also the best of that group."
Rushing upside. Improved passing-game weapons that include stellar rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. A team that will likely be playing from behind with regularity. All the ingredients are there for Murray to challenge for the top five at his position.
AVOID: Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
2 of 10
ADP: QB7, 57th Overall
There's little question that Joe Burrow is a talented young quarterback at the helm of a potent offense. In four NFL seasons, Burrow has led the Bengals to a Super Bowl and AFC Championship Game.
However, for all the things that Burrow has going for him, there are harsh realities regarding his fantasy value. The first is that in four years, Burrow has posted all of one top-five fantasy finish. The second, as Chris Meaney wrote at FTN, is that Burrow's injury history is becoming alarmingly long.
"In four years in the NFL Burrow has suffered a torn ACL, a dislocated finger and two different knee strains to go along with the two injuries he suffered in 2023. He also suffered a hand fracture and chest rib fracture in college. On top of that, Burrow plays in the toughest division in the NFL as the Ravens, Steelers and Browns all have strong defensive units. All three teams can get after the QB and the Bengals' offensive line is average at best. Burrow also lost play caller Brian Callahan, third-down specialist Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon who had 92 catches and over 800 receiving yards over the last two seasons."
Even if you shrug off the loss of Boyd and Mixon, there's no denying that Burrow plays in the league's toughest division. That Cincinnati's offensive line has been a question mark for years. And that Burrow offers very little in the way of rushing upside.
"Joe Cool" may be a great NFL quarterback. But there are numerous signal-callers (including the aforementioned Kyler Murray) being drafted after Burrow with better fantasy prospects in 2024.
TARGET: Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3 of 10
ADP: RB14, 34th Overall
This is not an opinion shared by the majority of the fantasy community. In fact, it's not hard to find an article proclaiming Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White as a potential bust. They point to White's mediocre 3.6 yards per carry last year and the arrival of rookie Bucky Irving, claim that the volume that propelled White to a top-five PPR finish last year is going away, and advise fantasy managers to stay away from the third-year pro at his ADP.
For his part, White isn't hearing any of that—he told The Rich Eisen Show (via NFL.com's Kevin Patra) that he has every intention of becoming Tampa's first 1,000-yard rusher since Doug "The Muscle Hamster" Martin in 2015.
"Obviously, my goal is to do whatever I can to help the team win," White said. "We've been last, or 25th to last the past five or six years -- I mean, even with the Super Bowl. When it comes to rushing, Tampa Bay has been down bad. My goal, and what I expect me to do, is turn that around, and that's to be top-10 to top-15, top-12, at the minimum. Obviously, there's not been a 1,000-yard rusher here in, like, what, nine years, and obviously, I was 10 yards short of that last year. So I'mma make sure I'm not nearby short of that this year and go well over that 1,000 yards."
Irving has talent, but he was also a Day 3 pick. Only Derrick Henry had more carries last year than White, who also caught 64 of 70 targets in the passing game. The Buccaneers also improved the interior of the offensive line this offseason.
Could White see a dip in volume? Yes. But the idea that he can't also improve his efficiency just doesn't make sense.
And the reality is that given how many folks are down on White this year, he's dropping below his ADP in quite a few drafts.
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AVOID: James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
4 of 10
ADP: RB13, 30th Overall
It's not hard to see why many in the fantasy community are high on Buffalo Bills running back James Cook in 2024. After posting 14 carries in a game (per Fantasy Pros) just twice over the first half of the 2023 season, Cook hit that threshold in all but one game after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator. From Week 11 on, Cook averaged 103 scrimmage yards per game and was a fantasy RB1.
However, that RB11 finish down the stretch was perilously close to where he's being drafted in 2024, and as Phil Alexander wrote at Footballguys, Cook's red-zone usage last year (or lack thereof) is cause for genuine concern.
"It might feel risky to fade the lead running back in an offense that should easily score 25 points per game, but I'm not sure you need to worry about passing on Cook. Losing scoring chances to Josh Allen is understandable, but 34-year-old Latavius Murray received almost three times as many carries inside the five-yard-line as Cook in 2023. Now he has to contend with Ray Davis, a sure-handed rookie with the strong legs and finishing skills to excel at the goal line. Cook's fumbling issues from last year have reportedly followed him into training camp. And for a player who is supposed to be a great receiver, he wasn't particularly efficient catching the ball last season. There is a greater-than-zero chance Davis is already the more impactful player."
Stating that Davis will outshine Cook this season may be stretching things, but at the very least Cook is being drafted at or near his ceiling. And if Cook keeps putting the ball on the ground after four fumbles a year ago, we may well see Davis start genuinely eating into Cook's usage.
TARGET: Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
5 of 10
ADP: RB25, 75th Overall
Last year, Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert was a league-winner—the 32-year-old eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career, paced the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns and finished with more PPR points than any running back in the AFC.
So, of course he's barely being drafted inside the top 25 players at his position this season.
There are legitimate reasons for that concern, whether it's Mostert's age, injury history or the presence of second-year back De'Von Achane, who is being drafted as a top-12 running back after averaging 7.8 yards per carry as a rookie.
Still, Achane is also an undersized back who missed half a dozen games last year. Even if the youngster stays healthy this season, Pranav Rajaram of 4For4 sees a path to both backs being fantasy-relevant—just as they were a year ago.
"Even if Achane stays healthy, I fully expect Mostert to stay involved in the rotation. The two were more than able to coexist last season: in the seven games where both of them played at least 30% of snaps, Achane was the overall RB2 and Mostert was the overall RB3. They each stay in the top 12 even if we throw away the Dolphins' 70-point performance against the Broncos where Mostert and Achane scored four touchdowns apiece. All in all, I am confident that Mostert and Achane can both continue to succeed in the high-flying Dolphins offense."
Mostert isn't your typical 32-year-old back—he has just 674 career carries. While everyone raves about Achane's speed, people tend to forget that Mostert is also one of the NFL's fastest backs. He's also still listed atop the depth chart in Miami.
The odds that Mostert finishes as a top-five back again may not be especially good. But he doesn't have to return massive value with an ADP in RB3 territory.
AVOID: Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
6 of 10
ADP: WR13, 29th Overall
In 2023, Nico Collins exploded into fantasy stardom—an afterthought in most drafts, Collins exploded for 80 catches, 1,297 receiving yards and eight scores. Those numbers landed the third-year pro 12th in PPR points among wide receivers.
That's right around where Collins is being drafted this season. But per Dave Ventresca of RotoBaller, Collins benefitted in part last year from being Houston's only dependable wideout.
This year, that's far from the case.
"Despite the breakout season, there are a few issues that complicate matters. Houston acquired former Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs in a trade this offseason, and Collins already has second-year receiver Tank Dell to compete with for targets. Dell is set to return from a leg injury that ended his rookie season. This is a concern for Collins. When both he and Dell were on the field last year, Dell appeared to be the team's top receiver. Diggs now adds further target competition into the mix, and it's unclear exactly how targets will be divided among these three players. While Collins is undoubtedly talented, paying up for him without knowing how targets will be distributed doesn't feel like the smartest play."
When Dell was healthy last year, he actually had a higher target share and air yards share than Collins—and that's without taking into account the arrival of Diggs, who has 100 catches and over 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons.
Is Collins talented? Absolutely. But the Houston passing game is exponentially more crowded than a year ago, and that's not going to make it easy for Collins to justify his ADP.
TARGET: Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7 of 10
ADP: WR15, 33rd Overall
Here we go again. We turn the page on the calendar, and fantasy drafters fade Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans because he has one more candle on his birthday cake.
The thing is, why?
Last year, Evans topped 1,000 passing yards for an NFL-record 10th consecutive season. His 13 touchdowns tied for the league lead among wide receivers. And Evans was seventh among fantasy receivers in PPR points.
As the staff at Fantasy Pros pointed out, Evans is a robotically consistent fantasy asset.
"At 31 years old, Evans has yet to show any signs of a decline in efficiency. Among WRs with at least 80 targets, he ranked first in receiving touchdowns, second in contested catches and sixth in yards per reception. His PFF receiving grade of 83.2 was his highest tally since 2019. What makes the veteran WR so reliable is his unquestionable role in this offense. Evans has operated as the Buccaneers' primary deep threat for the entirety of his career. The team's offense is dependent on him making big plays down the sideline and in the red zone. He's led the team in receiving touchdowns for four consecutive years."
This isn't a matter of an aging wideout who isn't the player he once was. Or a player who faces a changing landscape in his team's passing attack. The 2024 Buccaneers look an awful lot like the 2023 Buccaneers.
You can go "Robust RB" and land Evans as a viable WR1. "Hero RB" and lock down Evans as a high-end WR2. Or "Zero RB" and have a fantasy juggernaut at the position with Evans as your WR3.
That kind of versatility can be huge for fantasy drafters.
AVOID: Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears
8 of 10
ADP: WR30, 72nd Overall
As we move through the summer, opinions change on fantasy assets—or at least they should. As new information is learned, players move up and down draft boards.
That's been the case with Chicago Bears wide receiver Keenan Allen with this analyst this summer. There was a time when I genuinely believed Allen might challenge DJ Moore to be Chicago's highest-scoring fantasy wideout.
But frankly, there were warning signs even before Allen reportedly showed up to training camp with a few extra pounds packed on. Allen has long been largely dependent on volume for his fantasy success, averaging a robust 9.4 targets per game over his time in Los Angeles. He has struggled with durability issues of late, missing four games last year and 11 over the past two seasons.
Add in a crowded Bears pass-catching corps that also includes rookie first-rounder Rome Odunze and the fact that Allen is 32, and ESPN's Eric Moody sees one too many red flags to be comfortable taking Allen in Round 6.
"Allen's impressive stats (9.4 targets and 16.6 fantasy points per game) over the past 11 seasons with the Chargers are well-known. However, he's now 32 and will be catching passes from rookie quarterback Caleb Williams in a crowded wide receiver room that includes D.J. Moore and rookie Rome Odunze. It's also worth noting that only 11 wide receivers since 2000 have scored 225 or more fantasy points during their age-32 season. With that in mind, Allen's best fantasy days are probably behind him."
With younger, unquestioned No. 1 wide receivers like Jacksonville's Christian Kirk and Washington's Terry McLaurin coming off draft boards after Allen, the man has a point.
And my view of Allen has gone from value to "no thanks."
TARGET: Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
9 of 10
ADP: TE8, 67th Overall
Readers here at Bleacher Report may be growing weary of hearing me discuss the same tight end over and over again. But here's the thing—there are 6-7 tight ends I have any real ambition to target, one high-end tight end I'm avoiding at cost (more on him momentarily) and then a massive pile of "meh."
And the best overall value at the position this year may well be Evan Engram of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Engram had a career season in 2023, averaging over 12 PPR points per game and leading all AFC tight ends for the season. The reason for that is simple—volume. Engram paced his position in targets (143) and receptions (114) and ranked third in receiving yards. If Engram was on the field, he wasn't blocking either—his route participation rate was a robust 97.2 percent.
As Ian Allan wrote for Fantasy Index, Engram's big year may have been largely due to who he plays for.
"Engram led all tight ends last year with 114 catches – 19 more than anyone else at his position. Most of those were short and of little value (he averaged only 8.5 yards per catch) but they're putting the ball in his hands. The driving factor here, I think, isn't Engram or Trevor Lawrence, but Doug Pederson. When Pederson was with the Eagles, he had a tight end finish with top-10 numbers in all five of his seasons. Zach Ertz finished in the top-4 in four of those seasons. Pederson has spent seven seasons as a head coach. In those years, his teams have averaged 126 completions to tight ends. That's the 2nd-most in the league in those seasons, trailing only the Raiders."
The lack of long catches and scores didn't stop Engram from posting top-three PPR numbers last year. And the Jaguars' wideouts aren't so much better (or frankly any better) that Engram's role should change considerably in 2024.
AVOID: Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
10 of 10
ADP: TE4, 49th Overall
This is another opinion that isn't shared by many in the fantasy community. As a matter of fact, after a hot stretch to end his second season, Trey McBride of the Arizona Cardinals is a trendy breakout candidate in many circles. It's reflected in his ADP.
For starters, much of McBride's hot streak in 2023 coincided with not only the return of quarterback Kyler Murray to the Cardinals, but also with injuries that blasted Arizona's pass-catching corps. Veteran tight end Zach Ertz got hurt. So did wide receiver Marquise Brown. And young wideout Michael Wilson. And even running back James Conner. When you're the only game in town, your target share is bound to spike.
This season, the situation is considerably different. Brown is gone, but he has been replaced by veteran Zay Jones and one of the most highly regarded rookie wideouts in recent memory in Marvin Harrison Jr. The Cardinals added Trey Benson to a backfield that also includes a healthy Conner. Wilson is back as well.
In other words, McBride's target share appears more likely to decrease relative to the latter stages of last season than increase. And if that's the case, he isn't posting top-five numbers.
It's not like McBride has stretched defenses over his two NFL seasons—he has averaged less than 10 yards a catch. He also hasn't been a huge red-zone threat, posting four touchdowns in two years.
Fantasy managers are drafting McBride as though last year's "breakout" is only the beginning, when it's more likely that (as things stand now) it's as good as things are going to get.
Looking for more insight to prep for your draft or make some tough roster decisions? Check out all the latest B/R Fantasy Football essentials here.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.
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