NFL's Riskiest Picks in 1st 10 Rounds of 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts
Risk. It's as much a part of fantasy football as touchdowns and nachos.
There isn't a pick in any fantasy football draft that doesn't carry some measure of risk, and 2024 is most assuredly no exception. Presumptive No. 1 overall pick Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers is nursing a calf strain. CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys and Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals (both of whom are being selected in the front half of Round 1) are embroiled in contract disputes with their respective teams.
And so it goes, right down the line—from the first pick in the draft to the last. The key on draft day is to identify players whose potential reward outweighs that risk. And even then, sometimes fantasy managers press their luck a bit too much and get whammied.
Bonus points if you get that reference.
However, while all players carry at least some risk, some carry more than others. Quite a bit more, in fact. In every round of the draft there are players who are at best dice-rolls and at worst one of those whammys just waiting to happen.
Every round has a riskiest pick of all.
And fantasy managers would be well-advised to tread lightly around them.
Fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday
Average draft position data courtesy of FantasyPros.
Round 1
1 of 10
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET (ADP: 12)
That Gibbs is an electrifying talent is undeniable. Had he not missed two games as a rookie, he would have surpassed 1,000 rushing yards. As it was, he topped 1,200 total yards, scored 11 touchdowns and finished 11th in PPR points among running backs.
While appearing on The Rich Eisen Podcast, Lions general manager Brad Holmes said he expects Gibbs to have an even larger role in 2024:
"I definitely would expect him to see more of a load, but David Montgomery will still be here too. Dan (Campbell) and I love that one-two punch of him and David. But just speaking on, specifically, him being a rookie last year, even when he had some pops in that K.C. game in that opener, I was watching, I was like, 'He's still trying to get the feel of the game.' He was playing very fast, and he actually kind of needed to slow down a little bit … But once he got that sweet spot, you kind of saw it in the Ravens game, which unfortunately we didn't show up very well for that game, but that's when you started seeing some glimpses of, 'I think it's coming, I think it's coming,' Then, obviously, that Raiders game where I believe everyone saw the breakout. … I think he has much more to offer in the passing game, so most likely you'll see an increase in that as well."
Were Gibbs a featured back, he'd likely go that much higher in Round 1. But he shares the Detroit backfield with veteran David Montgomery, who had 235 touches of his own last year. Gibbs also has a history of soft-tissue injuries—including a hamstring pull this summer.
Add the two together, and you have more than a little risk for a player being selected as a top-six running back.
Round 2
2 of 10
Puka Nacua, WR, LAR (ADP: 14)
Nacua was OK as a rookie—all he did was eclipse 100 receptions, break a record for receiving yards by a rookie that had stood since before this analyst was born (and folks, this analyst is old) and finish as a top-10 PPR option.
Nacua won leagues for managers last year.
However, it's worth noting that Nacua did a lot of that damage for the Rams with veteran wideout Cooper Kupp on the shelf. And as HC Green wrote for The Huddle, when Nacua and Kupp were on the field together, the former's production took a sizable hit:
"In between Kupp's return (from injured reserve) and the finale, the duo played a dozen games together. During that stretch, Nacua posted 62 receptions on 102 targets for 944 yards and four touchdowns. That averages out to 5.2 receptions (8.5 targets), 78.7 yards, and 0.3 TDs per — take those numbers over a full 17-game season and you get 88 receptions, 145 targets, 1,337 yards, and 5.7 TDs. For comparison, Kupp averaged 4.9 catches (7.9 targets), 61.4 yards, and 0.4 TDs per outing. Nacua's per-game PPR output dipped 33% when he and Kupp shared the field."
That's a substantial decrease for a player who is essentially being drafted in the same spot he finished last season. Nacua is also already nursing a knee injury, although he's expected to be ready for Week 1.
Among the first 10 wide receivers off draft boards on average, Nacua is easily the riskiest pick.
Round 3
3 of 10
De'Von Achane, RB, MIA (ADP: 25)
On a per-touch basis, Achane was arguably the most dangerous back in the NFL last year—his 7.8 yards per carry set an NFL record for backs with at least 100 attempts, and Achane nearly surpassed 1,000 total yards despite touching the ball just 130 times.
But that workload (or lack thereof) is part of the problem with the speedster. Achane missed six games as a rookie, and he's part of a crowded Miami backfield that includes veteran Raheem Mostert (who led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last year with 18) and rookie Jaylen Wright.
Andy Hicks of Footballguys just sees too much working against Achane in 2024 to justify his asking price:
"The great thing about Achane's rookie season was that it appeared to come out of nowhere and was great to watch. 455 rushing yards on only 37 carries, with five rushing touchdowns in a three-game stretch early in the season. Add in two receiving touchdowns, and he became an elite running back after five weeks. Then he got injured. Once he returned, he became a mid-range RB2 for the season. Not only does Miami return the number (five PPR) fantasy back of 2023 in Raheem Mostert. Jaylen Wright was drafted in the fourth round to add to the speed machine. Even Jeff Wilson is productive when given opportunities. Achane has to be an absolute freak to live up to his draft slot. That's possible, but the odds are he performs significantly under expectations."
Drafting at ceiling in fantasy is almost never a good idea. And right now, Achane is being drafted at ceiling.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Round 4
4 of 10
C.J. Stroud, QB, HOU (ADP: 48)
It all appears to be coming together for Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. Fresh off an Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign that included a blowout win over the Cleveland Browns in the playoffs, Stroud is playing on a loaded offense that added two proven veterans in running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Some pundits rank the Texans offensive line as a top-10 unit. Bobby Slowik is one of the league's better young offensive coordinators.
And per ESPN's DJ Ben-Aime, head coach DeMeco Ryans said Stroud has taken the next step as a player this offseason:
"Everything in pre-snap from the meeting rooms, the command, calling the plays and everything is just so further along now. It's just been a seamless process of him understanding the entire picture, not just being focused on himself. ... You see a lot of him getting guys lined up, putting guys in the right spot. Bobby Slowik has done a really great job of having him see the bigger picture."
Stroud is absolutely an ascending young talent as a passer. But he doesn't offer fantasy managers much rushing upside—just 167 yards on the ground last year. In order to finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback, he'll have to approach or surpass 4,500 passing yards and throw well over 30 touchdown passes.
Is that possible? Yes. But fantasy managers are drafting Stroud as though it's a certainty.
And again, drafting fantasy players at ceiling has a tendency to lead to disappointment.
Round 5
5 of 10
Trey McBride, TE, ARI (ADP: 49)
Given McBride's ADP of fourth among tight ends, it's clear that many in the fantasy community expect his second-half breakout last year to continue into his third professional season. As Adam Koffler wrote for RotoBaller, there are some stats that back that notion up:
"Once he began operating as the TE1 in Arizona starting in Week 8 last season, McBride saw the third-most targets among tight ends (85) behind Evan Engram and David Njoku. His route participation rate in the last 10 games of the season was 90%. For comparison, Travis Kelce had an 86.5% route participation rate last season, while Sam LaPorta was at just 82.6%. McBride also had an elite target share and target rate of 26.7% after taking over as the starter. Believe it or not, Kelce has never had a season in which he posted a 26.7% target share and target rate in the same season (data via PlayerProfiler). It's just a 10-game sample size extrapolated over a full season, but it's a meaningful data point nonetheless. McBride is a stud."
However, for McBride to return value this year, he's essentially going to have to maintain that ridiculous target share—he has averaged less than 10 yards a reception for his career and has found the end zone just four times in two seasons.
With a revamped wide receiver corps that now includes veteran Zay Jones and a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr., maintaining that robust target share isn't going to be easy.
And if McBride's targets dwindle, his odds of finishing as a top-five tight end are going to plummet right alongside them.
Round 6
6 of 10
Zamir White, RB, LV (ADP: 66)
The sixth round has been regarded for some time as the heart of the "RB Dead Zone"—the area in drafts where bust rates at the position spike. But as more wideouts are drafted early, we are seeing lead backs for teams fall farther and farther on draft day…
Backs like Zamir White of the Las Vegas Raiders.
It was a bit surprising that after the departure of Josh Jacobs, the Raiders did little to address the backfield outside signing Alexander Mattison. That would appear to move White into a lead role, but there are those—including the staff at Fantasy Pros—who wonder if that will amount to much this year:
"His fantasy points per opportunity were 62nd among running backs last year while his yards per touch were just 32nd. His yards created per touch were 30th and his true yards per carry were 28th. The team brought in Alexander Mattison, who blundered his opportunity last season, but is a capable NFL running back, and drafted Dylan Laube. With Luke Getsy coming over to call plays from Chicago, he will likely get multiple backs involved as he did in the windy city. The Raiders offense, led by Gardner Minshew or Aidan O'Connell, is going to need a GPS to find the end zone this season, so how much is the volume worth?"
Over the final month of the 2023 season, White was a top-10 PPR option at his position. But that production came mostly against soft defenses, and the advanced stats point to a player who is less potential breakout than average talent set to let fantasy managers down.
Round 7
7 of 10
David Njoku, TE, CLE (ADP: 80)
Last season, the light bulb finally appeared to come on for Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku—the eighth-year veteran set career highs in receptions (81), receiving yards (882) and touchdowns (6) on the way to finishing fifth among all tight ends in fantasy points.
However, that breakout comes with a sizable caveat—much of the damage that Njoku did last season came with Joe Flacco under center. Per Dave Richard of CBS Sports, when Njoku has been on the field with Deshaun Watson, it has been a different story:
"In five games with Deshaun Watson last year. Njoku averaged 8.3 PPR points per game on 5.2 targets per game. In five games with Watson in 2022 he averaged 9.0 PPR points per game on 5.6 targets per game. Cleveland's addition of Jerry Jeudy to its receiving corps isn't going to help change these trends. And like some others, his ADP has gone up since the offseason. I love the player but can't trust the situation."
The reality is that once you reach this point in the draft, just about any tight end fantasy manager's target is going to carry at least one question mark. For Njoku, those questions are a questionable fit with Watson, the arrival of Jeudy and a new offensive coordinator in Ken Dorsey.
Frankly, it's more likely that Njoku finishes outside the top 10 at his position than backs up last year's top-five numbers.
And a pretty compelling argument can be made for having a tight end rostered before fantasy managers have to sift through a morass of "meh" options at the position like Njoku.
Round 8
8 of 10
Christian Watson, WR, GB (ADP: 96)
Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (ADP: 89) was considered here. There's no telling when Chubb will return to game action—or if he'll be anywhere close to 100 percent at any point in the 2024 season. But the possibility of landing a top-10 fantasy back in Round 8 is the kind of risk smart fantasy managers will take 10 times in 10.
If he hits, Chubb will be a league-winner this year.
It's something of a similar situation with Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson. There have been flashes of game-breaking potential with Watson over his first two seasons. But hamstring issues have cost the 25-year-old 11 games in two years, including almost half the season in 2023.
For his part, Watson told reporters he has been working with doctors all offseason to address the issue and avoid a repeat in 2024.
"For me, it really was the asymmetry between the legs," Watson said. "It comes from a lot of things. Obviously, the issues I've had in the past with hamstrings, not fully recovering from those strength-wise. I've been attacking the strength side of it, trying to get that symmetry back and it's been huge for me. I feel really, really good. I gotta continue grinding at it."
However, even if Watson is healthy, the Green Bay wideout room is choked with young talent. Jayden Reed. Romeo Doubs. Dontayvion Wicks. While Watson was sidelined last year, Reed and Doubs were building chemistry with Packers quarterback Jordan Love.
To be clear, a healthy Watson could easily surpass his ADP. But he could also get hurt again or find himself third in Green Bay in target share at wide receiver.
Round 9
9 of 10
Marquise Brown, WR, KC (ADP: 99)
There was a time not that long ago when Marquise Brown appeared to be a potential bargain at wide receiver. Rashee Rice's legal troubles had the potential to earn him a suspension to open the 2024 campaign. Xavier Worthy may be blazing fast, but he's also an untested rookie yet to catch a pass in an NFL game that counts. Brown had an opportunity to open the season as Kansas City's WR1.
Times have changed.
With Rice's next court date not until December, it doesn't appear his case will be resolved any time soon. Worthy has impressed in training camp and the preseason. And Brown dislocated his shoulder in Kansas City's preseason opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
If there's a silver lining here, it's that Chiefs head coach Andy Reid told reporters that Brown didn't need surgery to repair his shoulder.
"They were able to get the joint back into place without surgery, which is a positive,'' Reid said. "Then we'll just see on the recovery. He is back in Kansas City now."
But while it could be worse, Brown's status for Week 1 is now in jeopardy—and every practice session and preseason game he misses is a lost chance to develop a rapport with Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Now, it's possible that Brown won't miss much time, he and Mahomes will click, and he can still be the value play he appeared to be a couple of months ago.
But it's equally possible the injury lingers into the season, Rice and Worthy dominate wide receiver targets and Brown winds up the fantasy non-factor he was the past two seasons with the Arizona Cardinals.
Round 10
10 of 10
Jameson Williams, WR, DET (ADP: 116)
It has been a quiet first couple of seasons for Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams. An ACL tear all but wiped out his rookie season, and in 2023 he managed just 24 catches for 354 yards and two scores.
Twenty-five catches over two seasons likely isn't what the Lions thought they were getting when they drafted Williams 12th overall in 2022.
However, per Colton Pouncy of The Athletic, Williams has looked good in the offseason—leading to some pundits labeling him a fantasy breakout candidate in 2024. Pouncy wrote:
"The Lions' offense is pretty much set, with few available touches for newcomers. But one player who could have a breakout year is Williams — the 2022 No. 12 pick who could finally be ready for the spotlight. It's been a roller coaster of a start to his career, but when you talk to folks around the building, they'll tell you they've seen a demeanor shift from Williams. He knows he'll be counted on following the departure of Josh Reynolds to Denver, and he's got the talent to be an upgrade. He spent all spring with the first-team offense and appeared more focused than ever before. We'll see what it leads to."
Provided that Williams is back to pre-injury form, the talent would certainly appear to be there for him to smash this modest asking price.
But we're also talking about a receiver who has barely cracked 50 targets for his career who will be at best the No. 3 option in Detroit's passing game—No. 4 if you count the aforementioned Jahmyr Gibbs.
There may not be enough target volume there for Williams to be more than a tease who occasionally catches a long touchdown pass.
Looking for more insight to prep for your draft or make some tough roster decisions? Check out all the latest B/R Fantasy Football essentials here.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
