Making the Case for and Against Potential No. 1 Picks in 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts
The big day has arrived. Your fantasy draft is here. And when the draft order is generated, you hit the jackpot with the No. 1 pick.
Having the first overall selection is great and all, but it also carries considerable risk. Get it right, and your team has a rock-solid fantasy foundation. But given you won't pick again until No. 24, get it wrong and your team could be in considerable trouble.
Just ask the folks who took Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson a year ago. Or the ones who took Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor the year before that.
With stakes so high, it's important that fantasy managers consider the pros and cons of every name they are considering with the top pick. It's vital to find that player whose potential reward outweighs the risk. Who has the best shot of returning value on the most valuable pick in the draft.
That's exactly what we're doing here, by making the case for and against the leading candidates to be the first sticker placed on draft boards in 2024.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
1 of 6
The Case for McCaffrey
In terms of average draft position at Footballguys, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey is the consensus No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts.
The reason for that is twofold.
The first is the player himself. In 2023, the 28-year-old led the NFL with 1,459 rushing yards. He also caught 67 passes for another 564 yards and scored 21 total touchdowns. That's more than 2,000 total yards for the math-averse.
He wasn't just the No. 1 fantasy running back; he outscored the No. 2 back (Breece Hall of the New York Jets) by over 100 PPR points.
And this isn't the first time McCaffrey has annihilated every other running back in fantasy football. In 2022, he finished second in PPR points despite switching teams midseason.
There's also the matter of positional scarcity. Wide receivers may have grown in value in recent years, but that position is also substantially deeper than running back. There are a handful of Tier 1 wide receivers.
McCaffrey is a tier unto himself.
The Case against McCaffrey
This isn't the first time McCaffrey has been the consensus No. 1 overall pick. He has been there twice before, including after his historic 1,000/1,000 season with the Carolina Panthers in 2019, when he was the No. 1 RB by over 150 PPR points.
The following year, he played in just three games before injury ended his season. That's been a theme for consensus No. 1 picks, though.
Per Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated, of the last five consensus top picks, exactly zero finished inside the top 30 at their position the following season.
The last consensus No. 1 pick to actually pull off living up to that draft slot was wide receiver Antonio Brown of the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2016.
That McCaffrey is already nursing a calf strain suffered a couple of weeks ago doesn't inspire a ton of confidence that he's going to break that streak of disappointments.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
2 of 6
The Case for Lamb
Last season, CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys was the highest-scoring wide receiver in fantasy football.
No NFL wideout received more targets than his 181. No NFC wideout had more yards than his 1,749. And only Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored more touchdowns among NFC receivers.
As Joey Pollizze of RotoBaller noted, Lamb didn't just pile up fantasy points, he was almost robotically consistent in doing so:
"Lamb was one of the most valuable fantasy players last year, scoring the second-most PPR fantasy points among all positions. He saw at least nine targets in each of the final 11 games and averaged over 28 PPR fantasy points during that span. In that Cowboys offense with an elite quarterback (Dak Prescott) throwing him passes, another strong fantasy season should be in store for the All-Pro wideout."
The Cowboys have major questions in the ground game. There's a real possibility they will lead the league in pass attempts in 2024.
If that's the case, Lamb might not just match last year's gaudy numbers; he could surpass them.
The Case against Lamb
Of course, for Lamb to pile up catches and receiving yards, he has to be on the field. And to date this summer, he hasn't been.
The 25-year-old has spent the entire offseason embroiled in a contract dispute with the Cowboys and has yet to join the team.
NFL Network's Mike Garafalo told NFL GameDay that Dallas offered Lamb a contract averaging $33 million a season, and he turned the deal down.
"My understanding is it's around $33 million, and for Lamb, that's still not good enough," he said.
He added: "The structure, I am told, via sources familiar with Lamb's thinking, needs to be worked on as well—cash flow guarantees and how that will be structured on the front half of the deal."
A deal will probably still get done before the season starts, but there's going to be considerable rust to shake off. That doesn't help the chances of Lamb becoming the first receiver since Antonio Brown in 2015 and 2016 to repeat as the top player at the position.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
3 of 6
The Case for Hill
It's been a while since Tyreek Hill finished as the top wide receiver in fantasy football—2018 to be exact. Since then, though, he has amassed three runner-up finishes in PPR points, including each of the last two years.
Had Hill not gotten hurt, there's a genuine possibility—given his career-high 112.4 receiving yards per game—that Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving yards record would have been in jeopardy.
As Michael Baca noted for NFL.com, when the players voted this year on the Top 100 players in the league, it was Hill who claimed the No. 1 spot:
"He led the league with 1,799 receiving yards (on 119 receptions) and 13 receiving touchdowns, but a late-season ankle injury hampered his run at history. It's well known that speed is the name of Hill's game, and the Dolphins exploited his skill set to perfection in 2023 with an incredible metric that best describes his prolific campaign: 602 receiving yards on quick passes (time to throw is less than 2.5 seconds) of 10-plus air yards, which was 308 yards more than the next pass catcher, per Next Gen Stats."
Simply put, Hill is the most dangerous pass-catcher in the NFL. On any play, he can be past the defense and in the end zone in the blink of an eye.
The Case against Hill
That Hill is a dangerous offensive weapon is undeniable, but so are the risks surrounding taking him No. 1 overall.
For starters, the West Alabama product is the oldest player on this list. He's hardly over the hill at 30, but every player starts to lose a step at some point. For a player as reliant on speed as he is, that lost step would be a huge deal.
There's also the presence of Jaylen Waddle in the Dolphins offense. Yes, Hill is the alpha in the Miami passing attack, but his teammate is no slouch, either, after surpassing 1,000 receiving yards in all three of his professional seasons.
Finally, there's that fact that Hill has gone five seasons without finishing as the No. 1 wide receiver, let alone the top player in fantasy football.
His ceiling is probably higher than any other wideout in the league, but his floor isn't as safe as, say, a healthy and dialed-in Lamb, who is light years ahead of any other wideout on the Dallas roster.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
4 of 6
The Case for Robinson
In this analyst's opinion, the list of viable No. 1 overall picks begins with McCaffrey and ends with Hill.
But part of the joy of having the first overall pick is that you can take anyone you want.
If your dark-horse candidate to be the No. 1 overall player is a running back, they are going to need a lot of touches.
During OTAs, Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson told reporters he envisions himself in a McCaffrey-esque role in 2024.
"I'm going to be more of a runner--that [also] does everything else," he said. "It's like I did in college, [a runner] and then still having that access to go to receiver, still having access to do creative things out of the backfield, more so like how they use Christian down there in San Francisco."
There's a reason that in an age when few running backs get drafted in the first round, Robinson was the eighth overall pick. If he gets the (approximately) 340 touches in 2024 that McCaffrey did last season, he has the talent to challenge for the top spot among running backs and maybe No. 1 overall.
The Case against Robinson
Taking Robinson at 1.01 would be a major risk for a number of reasons.
The first is all the changes in the Atlanta offense. There's a new offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson and a new quarterback in Kirk Cousins coming off an Achilles tear. We don't yet know what the new-look Falcons offense will look like.
What we do know is that reserve running back Tyler Allgeier will be a major part of the Falcons offense.
"Tyler's going to have a great role in this offense," Robinson told reporters. "He just wants to get on the field in any way. Tyler is going to have a big role, and certainly, at certain points in the season, we're going to be leaning on him."
This doesn't mean Allgeier will get the 200-plus touches he saw in Arthur Smith's offense in 2023, but it does pour a lot of cold water on the notion that Robinson will see the sort of volume this year he'd need to be legitimately considered for the No. 1 overall pick.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
5 of 6
The Case for Hall
New York Jets running back Breece Hall finished a distant second in PPR points to McCaffrey last year. But given the circumstances of that runner-up finish, it was impressive enough to at least put him on the fringes of the RB1 (and No. 1 overall pick) conversation.
The 23-year-old rushed for under 1,000 yards, but thanks to 76 catches on 95 targets and nine total touchdowns, he finished with more PPR points than any AFC running back.
Mind you, this came one year after tearing his ACL less than halfway into his rookie season. Playing on a Jets offense that had no passing game to speak of, leaving Hall staring at loaded boxes in every game.
As Dalton Del Don wrote at Yahoo Sports, though, Hall now moves into a much more favorable situation another year removed from injuring his knee:
"Running backs historically show real improvement in Year 2 post-ACL surgery, and Hall already led all RBs in receptions last season. Hall feels back to his old self, and a returning Rodgers will be a major upgrade at quarterback. The Jets have a dominant defense and overhauled their poor offensive line early in the draft and through free agency. Hall averaged the most fantasy points when his team was leading and the second-most weighted opportunities as a favorite last season, and the Jets are favored in 14 of 17 games entering 2024."
There's a lot to like.
The Case against Hall
Unfortunately, there's also more than a little not to like, at least where taking Hall first overall is concerned.
Frankly. Most of the concerns about the Iowa State product stem from the Jets being a better team with Aaron Rodgers under center this year.
Hall led all running backs in catches last year largely because New York played from behind a lot and the team's dismal quarterbacks couldn't throw an accurate pass more than five yards down the field.
The offense should be vastly improved in 2024, and Hall's odds of seeing 95 targets again aren't good.
It's also fair to question how Hall would hold up under the sort of volume it would take for him to challenge for the top spot at his position. He has yet to touch the ball even 300 times in a season, let alone the 340-350 it would take for him to claim top spot.
You can make a case for ranking Hall ahead of Robinson. In fact, with McCaffrey already banged up there's at least some logic behind considering him as the top running back overall.
However, drafting Hall ahead of both CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill would be either a bold move or a big-time reach, depending on how you look at it.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
6 of 6
The Case for Jefferson
When my first Fantasy Big Board is published here at Bleacher Report later this week, there will be wide receivers ranked ahead of Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings. More than one, in fact.
But while Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Lions may have the safest floor of any of the first-round wideouts, he's not going to lead his own position in PPR points. Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals is embroiled in a contract dispute, has a quarterback returning from a major injury and has to contend with Tee Higgins for targets.
Both are top-five wideouts, but to be the first player taken overall, you have to demonstrate a ceiling like the Sistine Chapel: equal parts lofty and pretty.
Two years ago. Jefferson led the league in catches (128) and receiving yards (1,809) on the way to leading his position in PPR points by a solid margin. Over the last month of last season, once he returned from his hamstring injury, he was third in PPR points among wide receivers despite some bad quarterback play.
There isn't a better wide receiver in the NFL than Jefferson. If he was playing in Kansas City or even Los Angeles, he would absolutely be in the conversation to be the first overall pick—just like last year.
The Case against Jefferson
But he's not. He's in Minnesota...with Sam Darnold.
For his part, Jefferson told reporters that he's not worried about the 2018 No. 3 pick taking over as Minnesota's starter:
"A lot of people don't understand that there's a lot of things that go into a quarterback and a receiver's connection than just sitting back there and just throwing the ball to a spot. They have to really learn the timing of everything, how I run the routes, where I'm gonna be at in the routes. That's just us learning each other, learning how he throws the ball, learning how I run the routes. I definitely feel confident in going into Week 1 with Sam as our quarterback. I feel like he's been making plays throughout training camp. I don't have any worry in my mind at all."
We'll see if he feels the same after a few games.
This isn't to say Jefferson isn't a locked-in fantasy WR1. With even competent quarterback play, his ceiling is as high as any player in the league at his position.
But the last time we saw consistently competent play from Darnold is never, and that robs Jefferson of a chunk of his fantasy upside.
Fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
