B/R College Football 2024 Betting Locks: To Make the 12-Team Playoff
The College Football Playoff you knew and loved—or perhaps loathed—has been shelved. It has been replaced with… a new and improved College Football Playoff.
Rather than double the size of the playoff field, we've jumped from four teams to 12 in this format, skipping an eight-team playoff entirely. Automatic qualifiers have been added into the mix, and they will be awarded to the five highest-ranked conference champions. The remaining field will be decided by the selection committee, the group that has formed the College Football Playoff since its inception.
In short, it's going to be different. A lot different. And with realignment reworking conferences across the country, the entire makeup of the sport has changed in a matter of five months.
Today, we're here to capitalize on these changes and the new format.
Locks of the Week, a CFB staple at B/R, has spent the past few weeks diving into various CFB's future markets. Today, we're betting teams to make the College Football Playoff—exploring odds that have wildly evolved as the playoff has expanded.
Next week, we'll begin betting on actual college football games. For now, however, we're thrilled to be forecasting what the CFB Playoff might look like.
Let's dive in.
For the latest spreads on futures and games, head to DraftKings.
First, a Few Observations…
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Because of the expanded postseason, this is a new betting market of sorts. As such, the odds for many teams will take some getting used to.
In a four-team setting, a team like Georgia or Alabama could be had for -200 (or so) in terms of favorites. These situations were rare, and these odds were reserved for only a select few.
Now, there are eight teams at -100 or worse. There are even a few at -600 or worse, which is staggering and somehow appropriate. Even a team such as Miami, which has struggled mightily in recent years, checks in at only +220.
In short, this is a brave new world for all parties, including the sports books.
Ohio State to Make the College Football Playoff (-650)
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Speaking of -600 or worse, enter Ohio State.
Sure, the value is horrid. In this new, expanded era of the CFP, Ohio State has been given the kind of odds we see in a completely one-sided fight between two heavyweight boxers.
To make $100, you'll have to bet $650. Doing so is largely outside of my comfort zone. This stands completely against all underdog-hunting values. It's important these points are heard before we go any further.
Am I proud of this? Absolutely not. But we're putting pride aside.
Ohio State is absolutely loaded on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes' roster is a product of brilliant recruiting, superb development, and elite transfer portal management. Oh, and money. That, too.
Ryan Day has an abundance of superb players to work with, and it will unquestionably result in a playoff appearance. Road trips to Oregon and Penn State will be testers, and a home game against Michigan to close out the year could be a challenge.
Even if the Buckeyes lose both of those games, they're in the playoff. What happens after that, of course, will determine Day's potential fate.
Liberty to Make the College Football Playoff (+400)
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Here's what we know. One team from a Group of Five conference will make the College Football Playoff. That is not a prognostication. It's a reality of the current format.
The top five conference champions will all receive byes, which means a team outside of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC is guaranteed to get in. While there are plenty of teams warranting a place in this discussion, Liberty is both the obvious and right choice.
Last year, the Flames finished the regular season unbeaten, won its conference and proceeded to get clobbered by Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl.
Sure, when the competition took a leap upward, Liberty struggled mightily. The good news, however, is that the competition won't take a dramatic leap upward—at least most likely—until the playoff. The other good news is that electric quarterback Kaidon Salter is back.
Salter was superb last year under head coach Jamey Chadwell. He will be joined by running back Quinton Cooley, who ran for more than 1,400 yards in 2023.
The great separator of this pick, however, is the schedule. In short, it's not so bad. Liberty's toughest game will likely be a September road trip to App State. Games against Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky will also be challenges, although they'll be played at home.
Boise State (+400) and Memphis (+700) were also considered quite a bit, although the QB-coach combo was too much to pass up.
Penn State to Make the College Football Playoff (-140)
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James Franklin's reputation at Penn State could be summarized, largely, in a simple statement. His programs win the games it should and losses (sometimes emphatically) games it should not.
Just look at the past two seasons. The Nittany Lions have five losses, and four of those losses came to Ohio State and Michigan. The fifth came against Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl.
This team isn't perfect, but it should largely hover around the top 10. And an expanded playoff could be the ideal formula for Franklin when it comes to a potential breakthrough.
The schedule, of course, has some teeth. Penn State plays Ohio State, although it does so at home. The Nittany Lions also play at USC and at Wisconsin. Generally speaking, however, it's not so bad. This team avoids Oregon and Michigan, and the out-of-conference schedule isn't too shabby.
Adding former Kansas OC Andy Kotelnicki was a superb addition, and he will inherit an offense filled with potential. Quarterback Drew Allar has the tools; they still need to be refined. The running backs are tremendous, and there are plenty of weapons on both sides of the ball.
If Franklin doesn't make the playoff with this team and this schedule, it will be a disappointment. The rebuilt Big Ten will be mighty competitive, although Penn State should be in position come December.
Oklahoma State to Make the College Football Playoff (+650)
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Running parallel to the conversation regarding Group of Five teams is a similar realization regarding the Big 12. At least one team will make the College Football Playoff. This much we know.
The likely contenders in this discussion are Oklahoma State, Utah (+200), Kansas State (+250), Kansas (+600) or Arizona (+750). Zeroing in on a specific team has taken the entire offseason, although Oklahoma State is the choice. Having value at more than 6/1 doesn't exactly hurt, either.
Ollie Gordon II is special, and he will be the driving force behind the Pokes' push for the postseason. He will have help in the form of an experienced offensive line along with Alan Bowman, the team's seasoned and capable QB.
The first five games of the season will tell us plenty, as Mike Gundy's team will take on Arkansas in Week 2, Utah in Week 4 and travel to Kansas State in Week 5. That's not to say that we'll know where we sit by October 1, but we'll have a much better idea of this bet after the first month.
Trips to Baylor and Colorado late in the year could be testers, although Oklahoma State has a wealth of experience on the sideline to counter that. This isn't sexy, and the odds speak to the uphill nature of the bet.
A Few Dark Horses Worth a Look
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Virginia Tech (+800): Somewhat quietly, Virginia Tech finally found stable ground last season. While a playoff run might feel like a huge leap after a seven-win season, the schedule is incredibly favorable and the pieces that made last year's resurgence possible, headlined by QB Kyron Drones, are all back. If you're not sold on the contenders in the ACC, the Hokies might be worth a look.
SMU (+1000): Let's stay in the ACC. The major pieces from a team that finished top 20 in offense last year are back, and SMU will unquestionably score points. Now in the ACC, which is still extremely odd to say out loud, the Mustangs will have to adjust to this new conference—and better competition—overnight. That might be a lot to ask, but the schedule isn't terrible. A lot to like at 10/1.
Iowa State (+1000): While Iowa has received its fair share of playoff buzz, its Iowa State that feels like a better bet heading into the year. The Cyclones just missed out on a Top 25 ranking in preseason AP Poll, and it does feel like they're largely under discussed as we inch closer to September. At home, this team can present real issues, they have a slew of young, emerging playmakers and the new Big 12 certainly feels ripe for the taking.
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